Real Vision: Finance, Business & The Global Economy

By Real Vision Podcast Network

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Description

Understand the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts. We unlock access to the leading financial minds in the world to provide unbiased, in-depth analysis from real experts. The Real Vision podcast features our flagship series The Interview - the premier business and finance interview series in the world; And, the Daily Briefing which provides market analysis every weekday after US markets close and before Asian markets open. Subscribe today to get both of these shows totally free.Brought to you from Real Vision.

Episode Date
China's Tightening Grip: PBOC Declares Cryptocurrency Transactions Illegal
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DB-Sep24,2021: China says goodbye to cryptocurrencies as the PBOC officially declares that all crypto transactions are now illegal. The crackdown comes as China plans to unveil its official digital Yuan early next year. Overnight crypto market action brings Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to the scene to discuss where China fits into the ever-evolving cryptocurrency regulatory narrative and what it portends for the future of the space. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AELHqV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 25, 2021
Steven Van Metre: The Fed's Move to Taper and Evergrande's Critical Moment
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DB-Sep23,2021: With the Fed’s announcement that tapering may be coming as soon as November, Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial joins financial reporter Dion Rabouin to share his thoughts on the Fed’s next moves and how that will shape markets and the economy in the coming months. Van Metre also discusses Evergrande’s increasingly dire situation and whether he believes contagion will spread outside of China. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EHHghv Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 24, 2021
Fed Announces Taper Plans as Evergrande's Fate Hangs In The Balance
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DB-Sep22,2021: With the FOMC meeting now coming to a close, Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, returns to examine Fed policy guidance on tapering and also shares his perspective on the risks facing markets going forward as Evergrande announces that it will pay at least one bond due tomorrow. Dale evaluates today's overwhelming rally in equities and shares his updated macro risk matrix. Interviewed by Real Vision's Jack Farley. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u40SqZ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 23, 2021
Tony Greer: Commodities, Evergrande, and Europe's Energy Crisis
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DB-Sep21,2021: With a potential shock to China’s financial system from Evergrande’s looming debt default and with Europe facing an energy crisis, Tony Greer of TG Macro joins financial reporter Maggie Lake to share how these dynamics can have an impact on commodities such as natural gas, oil, metals, and more. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3hRIfl6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 22, 2021
Global Market Volatility Spikes as Fears of Evergrande Contagion Spread
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DB-Sep20,2021: Equities globally are in tumult, and volatility is rising sharply—Peter Boockvar, editor of the Boock Report and CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins financial reporter Dion Rabouin to provide his perspective on further market action this week as investors’ fears surrounding Chinese property developer Evergrande intensify. Boockvar also discusses weakening sentiment among home builders and what that says about ongoing inflationary pressure on the economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2ZabcSV Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 21, 2021
Does Evergrande Pose Broader Market Threats Outside China?
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DB-Sep17,2021: Markets are down again today, bracing for potential impact by Evergrande and the FOMC’s upcoming meeting—Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, cuts through the market noise and provide his perspective on the unfolding saga of Evergrande. He also updates his thoughts on bonds and crypto. Interviewed by financial report Dion Rabouin. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lFTr5M Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 18, 2021
Stocks and Bonds Decline as Markets Weigh the Odds of a Taper Announcement
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DB-Sep16,2021: In light of down day for U.S. markets and mixed economic data, Jack Farley, Ash Bennington, and Dion Rabouin come together to discuss the likelihood of a Fed taper announcement coming soon with the September FOMC meeting quickly rolling up. They also address the increasing anxiety around Evergrande as the Chinese property developer’s prospects continue to look more grim. Drop your questions here in the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2Xpd5uI Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 17, 2021
$300 Billion Default Pushes Chinese Real Estate Market to the Brink
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DB-Sep15,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, returns to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on the triple threat that Chinese risk assets face: the alarming slowdown in economic growth, the looming default of Evergrande, and the harsh regulatory crackdown by the Chinese government on companies, most recently Chinese gambling stocks such as Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. Dale then shares with Real Vision's Jack Farley his thoughts on inflation and the recent strength in commodities such as oil and aluminum. Drop your questions in the Exchange here: https://rvtv.io/398jAE6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 16, 2021
Inflation Cools Slightly As Oil Continues Its Rebound
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DB-Sep14,2021: With oil demand projected to continue strengthening for the rest of the year and OPEC upping their 2022 demand forecast, Tony Greer of TG Macro joins financial journalist Maggie Lake to analyze the sustainability of oil’s ongoing rally. Greer also shares an updated perspective on inflation as the CPI begins to cool off while prices remain elevated as well as on his long Bitcoin position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 15, 2021
Is It Now Japan's Moment to Shine? Plus Chinese Tech, Crypto, and Oil
2278
DB-Sep13,2021:Weston Nakamura says now’s the time to go long Japan—he unpacks his bull case here. He also examines further Chinese regulation and crackdowns as China tech stocks tumble with the government’s announcement to break up Alipay, crypto market action with Litecoin spiking, and the ongoing commodities rally with crude oil reaching its 6-week high. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Drop your questions for Weston here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3C9JgNa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 14, 2021
Producer Prices Soar as Apple Loses 80 Billion Dollars In Market Cap
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DB-Sep10,2021: On today’s Daily Briefing, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal talks with senior editor Ash Bennington about how his macro framework is evolving when it comes to the dollar, bonds, and crypto. Raoul and Ash cover today’s sharp rise in the U.S. producer price index and what impact this will have on the Federal Reserve. Ash reports on Apple Inc ($AAPL) shedding over $80 billion in market capitalization after an unfavorable court ruling threatens one of its most profitable businesses. And still to come on this busy half hour, Raoul gives viewers a behind-the-scenes preview of his new weekly show on Real Vision, "Raoul Pal's Adventures in Crypto," where Raoul sits down with the greatest minds to figure out just where this digital asset and crypto revolution will lead us all. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 11, 2021
Tony Greer: Going Long Bitcoin
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DB-Sep09,2021: TG Macro’s Tony Greer is now going long on Bitcoin—where does he see the future of crypto going? He explains here why he’s changed his tune, and he updates his thoughts on commodities—particularly oil—and whether the ECB’s announcement to slow the pace of their bond-buying program will have an impact on the assets that have benefited from the economy’s inflationary pulse. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Submit your questions on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38UoKUs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 10, 2021
Bearishness Emerging on Wall Street Within the Goldilocks Regime
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DB-Sep08,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, anticipates that the Goldilocks regime will be persisting in the U.S. for awhile longer yet, offering fertile ground for asset prices to continue to perform. Drawing upon his macro indicators and analysis, he addresses the increasing bearish consensus being priced into risk assets and how tapering later in the year may have an impact on this dynamic. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Drop your questions for Darius here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3trKr7O Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 09, 2021
Jared Dillian: How Much Higher Can Inflation Get?
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DB-Sep07,2021: Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his thoughts on why he sees the potential for inflation to fly even higher in the coming months. He also shares his perspective on what this means for commodities, particularly for uranium, as well as crypto’s flash crash. Interviewed by Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 08, 2021
August Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint As Smart Contract Protocols Skyrocket
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DB-Sep03,2021: With a major miss today in the August nonfarm payrolls report, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, updates his perspective on the economic recovery and inflation as well as what it means for price action going forward. Bianco also discusses the major rallies for various layer 1 smart contract protocols as Solana, Polkadot, and Ethereum are soaring higher. Interviewed by Ash Bennington. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 04, 2021
A Bounce Back in Cyclicals? What the Options Market Is Signaling
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DB-Sep02,2021: Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, shares his latest insights into current market dynamics, sectors set up for outperformance, and the state of the U.S. economy. With jobless claims reaching a new low since the early days of COVID-19, Lakha discusses what the August nonfarm payrolls data may also reveal about the labor market and what that means for Fed tapering. He also dives into what the options market is signaling about investor sentiment and volatility, and he updates his perspective on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 03, 2021
Real Vision Turns 7! Raoul Pal Celebrates Real Vision's History and Future
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DB-Sep01,2021: On today's special edition of the Daily Briefing, Real Vision CEO & co-founder Raoul Pal celebrates the history and future of Real Vision. Raoul describes the company's founding in September 2014 and its journey as a financial media company dedicated to truth in finance. He also shares his own personal journey that's been adjacent to Real Vision's evolution, discussing how his framework has been shaped, challenged, and expanded for the past seven years. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 02, 2021
Can The S&P 500 Hit 5K?
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DB-Aug31,2021:As the S&P 500 posts a monthly gain for the seventh time in a row, Tony Greer of TG Macro returns to the Daily Briefing to share how the renewed dovishness of the Federal Reserve is shaping his outlook for commodities, stocks, and the dollar. In conversation with Real Vision’s Jack Farley, Greer contemplates the possibility of S&P 500 hitting the 5000 mark and explains why he remains bullish on copper, oil, aluminum, and other commodities. To post questions for tomorrow’s Daily Briefing with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, click this link on the Real Vision Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mQmZzE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sep 01, 2021
Is There Deflationary Risk Ahead with Possible Fed Tapering?
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DB-Aug30,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, updates his macro framework for markets after Jay Powell announced at Jackson Hole that the Fed may begin to reduce stimulus this year and before the August nonfarm payrolls report drops later in the week. With monetary stimulus expected to taper off, Dale also examines if the same should be expected for fiscal policy, and he provides his perspective on Bitcoin and Ethereum as billionaire John Paulson calls crypto a “worthless” bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 30, 2021
Stocks Rise on Powell's Dovish Taper Talk
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DB-Aug27,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, weighs in on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the​​ virtual Jackson Hole Symposium, indicating tapering could start in 2021, but signaling there’s no rush to hike interest rates. He also revisits the inflation debate with a rise in personal income and spending. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 28, 2021
Will Jay Powell Embrace The Hawks?
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DB-Aug26,2021: Weston Nakamura and Petr Pinkhasov of Real Vision’s “The Exchange” join the Daily Briefing as markets anticipate the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which begins tomorrow. Plus, the team looks at how blockchain platform Tezos is growing inside big banks and baseball fields. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 27, 2021
Meme Stocks Make a Comeback and the SEC's Tough Stance on Chinese Tech
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DB-Aug25,2021: Max Wiethe joins the Daily Briefing to break down the day’s price action, including Gamestop ($GME) soaring upwards of 27% with the return of the meme stocks, as well as the SEC reinforcing its tough stance on Chinese tech with the threat of delisting in the U.S. Max also provides an update on the FX markets and his tips for successful momentum investing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 26, 2021
Tony Greer's Market Update: Stock Rally, Crypto Heist and China Tech
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DB-Aug24,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to address a broad-base rally in stocks, the hacker behind $600 million Poly Network heist returning the stolen funds, and his thoughts on Chinese tech regulation and price action. Greer also provides an update to his framework, the assets he's been watching, and his perspective on the macroeconomy. Drop your questions here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38cvfBE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 25, 2021
US Equities Erase Last Week's Losses and PMIs Show Mixed Data
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DB-Aug23,2021: Maggie Lake welcomes markets reporter Dion Rabouin and Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to discuss the rebound in the major US equity indices on Monday and Japan’s PMI getting hit as well as the Eurozone demonstrating strengthening PMI numbers. Providing an update on his outlook, Dale examines whether the mixed PMI data is a foreshadowing for the future of global growth. Dale also shares his thoughts on whether there is more persistent inflation building up under the hood of the economy as well as Bitcoin’s jump to the $50k level. Drop your questions for Michael here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3B2oyOM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 24, 2021
Chinese Tech Continues to Get Battered and Eviction Moratorium Remains
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DB-Aug20,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Simplify Asset Management, to discuss the day’s price action as well as Green’s thoughts on Chinese tech and the eviction moratorium in the U.S. With Chinese tech companies listed in the U.S. set to have their worst declines in more than a decade, Green explains his perspective on what China’s clampdown means for the sector. He also tackles the Biden administration’s intention to continue the latest eviction moratorium while rental assistance makes its way to tenants and landlords as well as what this may indicate about the health of the economy. Drop your questions for Michael here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2WaEfol Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 21, 2021
Oil Declines After Taper Talks and Amazon and Facebook in the Spotlight
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BD-Aug19,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to update his framework for the U.S. economy and inflation as well as his outlook for equities, bonds, and commodities. After talks of tapering coming out of the FOMC minutes released yesterday, Thornton analyzes the market’s response with relatively little action in the major U.S. indices as well as the dollar's continued rise and commodities like oil and copper taking a hit. He offers his perspective on the state of antitrust concerns with the FAANGs with tech giants like Amazon’s plans to open department stores and Facebook’s move into the metaverse while a new antitrust suit is submitted against them by the FTC. Drop your questions for Tommy here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/2Xxhew2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 20, 2021
The FOMC's Developing Thoughts on the Taper Timeline
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DB-Aug18,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to dig deep into the Fed minutes released today and discuss whether there’s signs of tapering on the horizon and what that means for the economy. Dale shares his perspective on the ways in which the Fed’s decision to taper, and when, will shape his outlook for future inflation and growth as well as his thoughts on how it will impact various asset classes such as bonds, equities, and commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 19, 2021
Are Weakening Retail Sales a Sign of Increasing Inflationary Pressure?
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DB-Aug17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back to Tony Greer of TG Macro to provide an update on his framework, the sectors he’s watching, and his thoughts on inflation. Greer analyzes whether the 1.1% fall in U.S. retail sales in July points toward more of a shift in consumer preferences or whether it’s more indicative of price inflation pressures, and he and Bennington also discuss what sort of knock-on effects China’s crackdown on tech will have on markets, particularly on the tech sector, as the NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index continues to suffer from declines. Finally, Bennington provides a brief update on the Poly Network hack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 18, 2021
Will China's Slowdown and Taper Talks Derail The Reflation Trade?
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DB-Aug16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to examine China’s economic slowdown in July and what risks that might pose to global economic growth as well as the Fed’s consideration of ending asset purchases by mid-2022. Dillian provides an update on his investment framework amidst concerning signals about the risks of an economic slowdown that would undermine the recovery in addition to the timeline of the Fed tapering and what the impact would be on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 17, 2021
Consumer Sentiment Is Dipping - Is the Economy Slowing?
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DB-Aug13,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley and Maggie Lake welcomes Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners to discuss the day’s price action as well as address dipping consumer sentiment and the possibility of the U.S. economy slowing. Lake analyzes the contributing factors to explain why consumer sentiment may be falling, and Farley examines whether that is reflective of a slowing economy. The trio also dive into eurodollar futures, debt monetization, the trajectory of inflation, and the Fed’s response function to provide a clearer picture of future growth and the overall macro environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 14, 2021
Initial Jobless Claims Continue to Decline as Core CPI Misses Expectations
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DB-Aug12,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington and Petr Pinkhasov welcome Weston Nakamura to examine the weekly jobs data, how yesterday’s core CPI actually hit below expectations, and updates on the Poly Network hack as well as a new attack on DAO Maker. Even as the jobless claims data show a third consecutive decline in new unemployment claims, demonstrating a more sustained recovery in the labor market thus far, Nakamura draws attention to the fact that core CPI actually came in below economist expectations, which might be signaling a deceleration in inflation. He unpacks why this was the case and what it means for the economy and markets in the coming months. Bennington also provides an update on the Poly Network hack and discusses a new one on DAO Maker that occurred today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 13, 2021
Bonds Rally and Cyclicals Thrive as CPI Rises 0.5%
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DB-Aug11,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley and markets reporter Dion Rabouin welcome Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to unpack the U.S. CPI released today, showing a rise of 0.5% in July. Boockvar examines the July’s CPI data and discusses how it is driving today’s price action in equities and bonds and what it means for inflation, monetary and fiscal stimulus, and various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 12, 2021
The Impact of the $550 Billion Infrastructure Bill on Inflation and Crypto
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DB-Aug10,2021: Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to analyze the day's price action as well as discuss the economic ramifications of the $550 billion infrastructure bill as it passes in the Senate and how the crypto tax reporting rules in the bill will affect the digital assets space. Greer examines gold’s flash crash from earlier in the week and provides an update on how he’s thinking through other sectors such as commodities, equities, and bonds. The pair also explore how the infrastructure bill passing in the Senate could amp up the inflationary pressures the U.S. economy is currently facing and what it means for the crypto space and for those who invest in crypto assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 11, 2021
Darius Dale: Gold's Flash Crash and the Latest on Infrastructure
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DB-Aug09,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale to discuss the latest on the infrastructure bill and how the new amendment on crypto will affect digital assets as well as gold's swift overnight plunge and Bitcoin's surge. Bennington discusses the new proposed tax laws on crypto within the infrastructure bill and explains what they mean going forward for crypto investors as well as analyzes Bitcoin's recent jump higher. Farley and Dale then approach the bill from a different angle by exploring its impact on inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, and they also examine Berkshire Hathaway’s Q2 earnings report. Finally, the trio discuss what's next for gold following Sunday’s plunge. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 10, 2021
What does July's Job Report Imply About the Economy?
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DB-Aug06,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Real Vision founder, Raoul Pal, to discuss market price action resulting from the July non-farm payroll report and Robinhood’s wild week of trading. Pal looks at equity sectors that he is watching and explains whether the positive jobs numbers forecast long-term economic strength. The pair looks at Robinhood’s large move higher and dives into the influence of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 07, 2021
Labor Market Shows Improvement as Ethereum Undergoes Crucial Update
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DB-Aug05,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss today’s market reaction towards the improvement in the labor market and important updates to the Ethereum network. Bianco covers the decline in unemployment claims and considers whether this trend is sustainable as the delta variant continues to hamper full reopening. The trio also looks at the London hard fork update to Etheruem and its potential effects on Ether’s price and long-term prospects for the network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 06, 2021
Bonds Snap Back as Robinhood Explodes Higher
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DB-Aug04,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley, Petr Pinkhasov, and Weston Nakamura break down a day of confounding price action across global markets. Farley and Pinkhasov cover the disappointing change in U.S. Employment from the ADP, which triggered a rally in U.S. Treasury bonds, and the ISM Services reading, which blew away expectations and caused those same bonds to sell-off later in the morning. The trio examines the wild surge in Robinhood stock ($HOOD), with Nakamura and Pinkhasov exploring potential profitable trades that could profit from this enormous volatility. For the "Week Ahead" post on the Exchange that Petr referenced, click here: https://rvtv.io/3ln9Zko To watch the interviews from Real Vision's oil week, click here: https://www.realvision.com/lp/oil-week/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 05, 2021
Analyzing Market Risk as Mortgage Forbearance Comes to an End
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DB-Aug03,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to analyze the day’s price action as well as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s remarks on crypto regulation. Greer provides an update on his thoughts on equities, commodities, and inflation and his perspective on what market risks are posed to the economy by the coming end of mortgage forbearance and what greater regulation in the crypto space means for digital assets going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 04, 2021
Can Biden's Infrastructure Bill Reinvigorate the Economy?
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DB-Aug02,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, to discuss today’s market sentiment as investors receive Chinese PMI data and the Senate looks to close on a decision for Biden’s infrastructure bill. Dale comments on today’s strong open and his updated framework for the markets. The trio looks at sectors that could benefit from the passing of Biden’s bill as well as the strength of the global economy reflected in the Chinese PMI. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 03, 2021
Christian Angermayer: Investing in the Therapeutic Potential for Psychedelics
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The Interview: Christian Angermayer, founder of Apeiron Investments, Atai Life Sciences, and COMPASS Pathways, made headlines for attributing his decision to invest in Bitcoin to a trip on mushrooms, but his journey as an investor and advocate for psychedelics goes much deeper than the clickbait. In this interview with Mike Green, Angermayer discusses how he went from a successful investor living the straight edge life to founding and eventually IPOing two startups, which are at the cutting edge of research into how mushrooms and other psychedelics could revolutionize the way we think about treating mental health issues. Together, they discuss the parallels between the modern human experience and other times of great change, how this is manifesting itself in societal and individual angst, and why this might make today the perfect time for broader acceptance of these treatments. They also touch on Green's own personal experience with mushrooms and Angermayer's optimistic approach to investing in technologies driving human progress. Recorded on May 8, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Aug 01, 2021
Accelerating Returns in The Exponential Age
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The Interview: Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to explain how the accelerating pace of technological progress is rapidly transforming business and life as we know it. Azhar identifies how technologies such as vaccines, renewable energy, and additive manufacturing (commonly known as "3D printing") are advancing at a rate faster than previously thought possible. He and Harrison discuss the "winner-take-all" dynamics of technological process, and Azhar argues that the era of "diminishing returns" and economies of scale is over—there is no limit to how much market share a company can command, save for government regulation. Accordingly, Azhar thinks there could be some "pitchfork risk" of a populist backlash. He and Harrison discuss the implications of this as well as universal basic income, potential bubble signals, and crypto. Recorded on May 12, 2021. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on Ed's and Azeem's interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3olruRt Key learnings: For companies who can leverage 'network effects,' the addition of each customer is accretive to the value of every other customer. This effect can create a world in which companies can expand their operations with accelerating, rather than diminishing, returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 31, 2021
Mark Ritchie II: Cash is King
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DB-Jul30,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to share his thoughts on earnings for tech and energy companies as well as the continued uncertainty surrounding Chinese tech stocks. Ritchie covers the market’s negative reactions towards Amazon’s earnings release and its signaling of economic growth. The trio looks at the continued crackdown against Chinese tech equities and overcrowding of the U.S. IPO market. At the end of today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fifth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 31, 2021
Jared Dillian: Is Economic Growth Slowing?
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DB-Jul29,2021: Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss his outlook for the economy by analyzing jobless claim data and GDP forecasts in addition to commenting on Robinhood’s IPO. The trio covers the decline in jobless claims and its implications for the state of the labor market. Dillian examines Robinhood’s price action on its first day of trading and criticism of its payment for order flow business model. During today’s briefing, Ash and Jack will preview the fourth part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 30, 2021
Interpreting the Fed's FOMC Meeting Results
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DB-Jul28,2021: Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura sits down with Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on price action related to the FOMC meeting today and the recovery in Chinese equities. Nakamura covers data implying a slowdown of the economy even as inflation prints continue to remain higher than expected. The pair explains the recent bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin and the mixed sentiment in Chinese markets as stocks begin to recover from the sharp sell-off. During today’s briefing, Jack will preview the third part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Continue the conversation with Jack and Weston over at the Real Vision Exchange! https://rvtv.io/exchAfterHours728 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 29, 2021
Why Bitcoin Will Green the Planet (w/ Mustafa Yilham, Meltem Demirors, Caroline Cochran, & Whit Gibbs )
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Crypto Gathering Special: Mustafa Yilham, VP of Global Business Development at Bixin; Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer for CoinShares; Caroline Cochran, co-founder and chief operating officer of Oklo; and Whit Gibbs, founder and CEO of Compass Mining discuss how Bitcoin will ultimately prove a net positive for the greening of the planet. Given recent comments from individuals such as Elon Musk on their concerns over Bitcoin's adverse affects on the environment, the Real Vision Crypto team felt that it would be only proper to present our audience with an alternative viewpoint. Recorded live on March 24, 2021 at Real Vision's Crypto Gathering. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 28, 2021
NASDAQ Churns as Chinese Equities Plummet
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DB-Jul27,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington on the Daily Briefing to discuss price action within the NASDAQ as well as the continued onslaught against Chinese tech companies. Thornton walks through the sectors that he believes are strong and how to navigate the uncertainty surrounding popular tech companies in China. At the conclusion of today’s briefing, Ash will preview the second part of an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 28, 2021
Are Chinese Stocks Doomed?
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DB-Jul26,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound, Chinese regulatory concerns, and deflationary signals on Dale’s radar. Dale explains potential tailwinds for Bitcoin’s recent strength despite the increase in China’s regulation of technology and educational companies. Before the briefing concludes, Ash and Jack will preview an interview with Cathie Wood conducted by Kiril Sokoloff, which you can watch right here: https://rvtv.io/3xaMOMi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 27, 2021
Future Trouble in Macro? Liquidity Traps and a Slowing Global Credit Impulse
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The Interview: Could a slowdown in credit creation and a tightening of monetary conditions push bond yields lower and threaten risk assets? Alfonso Peccatiello, fixed income investor and publisher of the Macro Compass, believes that’s possible. Peccatiello contends that inflation is indeed transitory, and, disagreeing with the "bond vigilantes," he argues that cash, bonds, and volatility protection will perform better in this environment than high-beta assets such as commodities and bank stocks. Interviewed by Real Vision’s Jack Farley on July 2, 2021. Peccatiello's blog, The Macro Compass, can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 25, 2021
Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden: Diving into the Macro
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DB-Jul23,2021: Along with Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal welcomes Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, for his Real Vision Daily Briefing debut. As a special edition of the Daily Briefing, Pal and Brigden will be diving deep into their respective frameworks, discussing the differences in how they’re seeing the macro picture as well as rallying around where they are aligned. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 24, 2021
Jobless Claims Rise -- What This Means for Central Bank Tapering
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DB-Jul22,2021: Petr Pinkhasov of Real Vision's Exchange joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss new data related to jobless claims in addition to developments surrounding central bank actions to deal with inflation. Pinkhasov also explains the effect of supply increases on oil prices and how central banks are approaching tapering asset purchases. The trio analyzes the increase in jobless claims despite the labor shortage that many business owners are experiencing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 22, 2021
The Ongoing Evolution of the Ethereum Network
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Crypto Special ; Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Ryan Berckmans, investor and Ethereum community member, to discuss the evolution of Ethereum and the changes forthcoming that will further solidify its role in the crypto ecosystem. Berckmans explains that Ethereum’s novelty stems from being an open-access global computer, which leads to credible neutrality, and he lays out how this undergirds Ethereum’s tactical applications. He also talks through Ethereum’s transition to a proof of stake (PoS) protocol and what benefits this transition holds for Ethereum and for the crypto space as a whole. Recorded on May 27, 2021. Key Learnings: Berckmans describes how Ethereum is a credibly neutral platform as an open-access world computer, allowing developers to leverage its network for end user and middleware applications and leading to more innovative and frictionless executions of financial services. He also discusses how one of the biggest risks to the Ethereum network currently is its transition to a PoS protocol; however, the development of Ethereum 2.0 will offer more security alongside opportunities for scaling and value generation that would otherwise be impossible on a proof of work (PoW) model. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 22, 2021
Is the Sell-Off Over? Making Sense of a Market in Flux
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DB-Jul21,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to share his insights into market expectations of economic growth as stocks continue to move higher and inflation fears wane. The trio takes a look at Bitcoin’s price actions as it struggles to meaningfully move higher. Boockvar also dives into the recent bond rally to determine investor expectations of inflation and examines the future of oil prices as supply increases are imminent. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 22, 2021
Tony Greer's Market Update: Inflation, Equities, Bonds, and More
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DB-Jul20,2021: With U.S. stocks rallying off of yesterday’s steep selloff while bonds remain relatively flat, what risks are markets pricing in currently, and what opportunities does that lead to for investors? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Ash Bennington, senior editor at Real Vision, to discuss Greer’s impression of the Monday selloff and what that spells for equities, bonds, commodities, and the dollar going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 21, 2021
Global Equity Markets Recoil as Delta Variant Concerns Rise
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DB-Jul19,2021: Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Ash Bennington to share his updated framework on equity markets, bond yields, and oil prices as delta variant concerns force a market correction. Dale dives into macro data points indicating whether the stock market correction is driven by the delta variant or overbought assets. The trio also examines OPEC’s decision to boost output and its long-term implications for oil’s bull run this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 20, 2021
Christian Angermayer: Investing in the Therapeutic Potential for Psychedelics
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The Interview: Christian Angermayer, founder of Apeiron Investments, Atai Life Sciences, and COMPASS Pathways, made headlines for attributing his decision to invest in Bitcoin to a trip on mushrooms, but his journey as an investor and advocate for psychedelics goes much deeper than the clickbait. In this interview with Mike Green, Angermayer discusses how he went from a successful investor living the straight edge life to founding and eventually IPOing two startups, which are at the cutting edge of research into how mushrooms and other psychedelics could revolutionize the way we think about treating mental health issues. Together, they discuss the parallels between the modern human experience and other times of great change, how this is manifesting itself in societal and individual angst, and why this might make today the perfect time for broader acceptance of these treatments. They also touch on Green's own personal experience with mushrooms and Angermayer's optimistic approach to investing in technologies driving human progress. Recorded on May 8, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 19, 2021
VC Legend Bill Tai: The "New Era" of Valuations
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The Interview: Legendary venture capitalist Bill Tai is an expert in identifying exponential trends. He has been an angel investor in more than 20 companies that have gone public, including Zoom and Dapper Labs. Tai returns to Real Vision to share with co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal what makes an exponential valuation and how the low interest rate environment has caused a surge in P/E multiples, richly rewarding high-growth technology companies. The two discuss how the current wave of NFTs and the adoption of the Metaverse unlock a new layer of value that brings economic empowerment, resulting in a new style of business based around community and platforms. Recorded May 7, 2021. Key Learnings: Tai is now looking to invest in companies with massively asymmetric risk, such as healthcare and renewables, where he sees potential for network effects to be created in these sectors. He shares his guiding principles behind every technology company he invests in: lower the friction to a use case, increase replicability of the behavior, and build a back end tuned for great scalability. To continue the discussion with fellow Real Vision members on Raoul and Bill's interview, click here to visit the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uHKsUL. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 18, 2021
When Opportunity Meets Reality: Real Estate in a Post-Covid World
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The Interview: Nick Halaris, president at Metros Capital, welcomes Jim Rehlaender, CEO at JLP Asset Management, to discuss the US housing market, Covid-19's impact on real estate, and the effects of rising raw materials prices. He argues that rising construction costs and heightened demand for suburban land have contributed to the increase in home prices. This has presented a unique opportunity in rental properties as families decide where they want to settle after the pandemic. Rehlaender does not believe that high lumber prices are sustainable as an uptick in interest rates and delaying developments will curtail the demand for homes. The pair also discuss the impact on commercial real estate as businesses decide if their employees will return to work in person or remain remote. Recorded on June 8, 2021. Key Learnings: Rehlaender explains his firm’s strategy of investing in publicly listed companies that are owners or operators of real estate assets. As Rehlaender analyzes potential investments, he ensures that the company has a good management team and an effective business strategy. He stresses that it is important to invest in people that can help poorly managed properties recover. However, if Rehlaender's team does not understand the market dynamics or property type, they will avoid investing in that company. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 17, 2021
Raoul Pal: Takeaways from "After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs"
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DB-July16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to share his thoughts on Real Vision’s recent campaign, “After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs” as well as provide a strategic update on his macro thinking. Together, they discuss the highlights from the campaign as well as their takeaways, and Raoul explains the role that NFTs serve in his Exponential Age framework. He also touches on the broader financial markets, talking through his perspective on the evolving inflation narrative that has captured market sentiment. To learn more about "After the Hype: Reality Sets in for NFTs," click on this link here: https://rvtv.io/NFTWeek Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 17, 2021
Has the FED's Goal of Substantial Employment Progress been Achieved?
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DB-July15-2021: Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirtnap joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Jack Farley on the Daily Briefing to discuss a pandemic low for jobless claims and market reactions to recently released manufacturing surveys. The trio takes a look at the labor market dichotomy between jobless claim decreases and labor shortages. Dillian shares his perspective on sectors he is watching as FED governors voice their support for tapering talks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 15, 2021
Jimmy Song: A Philosophical Approach to Bitcoin
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Crypto Wednesday: Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior crypto editor, hosts Bitcoin developer, educator, and entrepreneur Jimmy Song to discuss how his thoughts on Bitcoin have been evolving over the last year, its future, alt-season, and the path to decentralization. Song states that value is not intrinsic, but rather subjective, and is the utility an individual can derive out of it. He explains that scarcity also factors into value, particularly money, and in that regard, Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value. As the current monetary system has a constant flow of money pushed through the economy at a high velocity, thereby creating wealth, Song explores how any form of solitary money would lose value in this system and how long-term stores of value such as real estate, stocks, and gold have power consolidated among only a few, which makes this system flawed. On the other hand, Bitcoin does not have any of these problems. Recorded on May 10th, 2021. Key Learnings: Song states Bitcoin is a savings technology, one that can be used over a long period of time. This, in turn, allows societies to focus on improving the future. Within the current monetary system, continual currency debasement, re-investment, and losses due to transactional fees can burden individuals too heavily in retaining the value of their money and can prevent society from bringing new goods and services to the market. Song believes Bitcoin is a civilization building technology, which can enable society to flourish in new and exciting ways. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 14, 2021
Making Sense of June's CPI
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DB-Jul 13,2021: Tommy Thornton, president at Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss the CPI print released today, equity pricing, and earnings season. Thornton, along with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, examines the effect that the CPI print will have on the FED’s dovish commitment to the economy. Additionally, the pair looks at how different markets are reacting to the high consumer price index figure and if sentiment is changing towards inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 14, 2021
Are Markets Mispricing Inflation Expectations?
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DB-Jul12,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on inflation expectations and market sentiment as the S&P 500 hits a new intra-day high. Dale joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington and Samuel Burke to examine the results of the New York Fed’s Consumer Survey for inflation expectations. Additionally, the trio looks at the possibility of an ECB policy shift as it looks to continue its monetary stimulus to support Europe’s reopening economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 13, 2021
Building a Portfolio that Benefits from Inflation: Live with James Davolos
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Real Vision Live Replay: The risk of inflation is clearly one of the top market narratives for 2021, and many investors are buying in. But how do you actually build a portfolio to benefit from inflation? Whether it's energy, real estate, precious metals, or soft commodities, everyone seems to have a different answer. James Davolos, portfolio manager and research analysts at Horizon Kinetics, is responsible for doing just that, in their fund $INFL. In this interview with Ed Harrison, he explains his framework for building a diversified portfolio that benefits from inflation. Davolos also explains what inflation means to him and how he measures it, as everyone seems to have a different definition of what inflation actually is and how best to measure it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 12, 2021
Tail Wagging the Dog: How Options Gamma Drives Equity Price Action
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The Interview: Imran Lakha of Options Insight and Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma are veterans of the options market, and they join Real Vision to shed light on how options exert a hidden pressure on the stock market. Most associate the phrase “gamma squeeze” with GameStop, but Kochuba notes that gamma squeezes are very common, noting the various ways in which dislocations in dealer gamma can drive price action in indices such as the S&P 500 but also in single-name equities like Tesla and Apple. He describes his quantitative method to identify levels of gamma resistance in single-name equities and index futures, using detailed charts levels to spot what he names "call walls" and "volatility triggers." Kochuba and Lakha make sense of the drastic transformation the options market has undergone over the past year, and they speculate on the future of this highly sophisticated asset class. Lastly, Lakha shares with Kochuba his findings in the nascent world of crypto derivatives. Recorded on May 3rd, 2021. Key learnings: The explosion in single-stock option volumes means that options are now playing a huge role in driving price action in the equity market. Kochuba argues that this new environment offers the venturesome trader an opportunity to exploit the option market makers' to hedge their exposure. Lakha notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibit call skew, which offers opportunities that are rarely seen in traditional capital markets. Lakha's website is https://www.options-insight.com/ and Kochuba's analysis can be found here: https://spotgamma.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 11, 2021
Dario Perkins: Rebooting the Fiscal Software
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The Interview: Dario Perkins, managing director of macro at TS Lombard, argues that we are seeing a global regime shift in economic policy from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Perkins explains how this change will have wide-ranging implications for economies and financial markets. He sees Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as instrumental as the "software" for making this shift possible. But although he welcomes change, Perkins believes the endgame for this structural break is inflation. In the medium-term, that will mean greater economic growth, gently rising bond yields, and a return to value over growth in equity markets. But eventually, down the line, inflation will set in. Perkins believes gold is the hedge for that outcome. Recorded on April 29, 2021. For more on Dario Perkins' background, click here: https://www.tslombard.com/dario-perkins. TS Lombard's website can be found here: https://www.tslombard.com/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 10, 2021
Equities Surge as the U.S. Bond Rally Relents
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CB-Jul09,2021: The 8-day rally in U.S. Treasury bonds finally breaks as global equities take back much of yesterday’s sell-off. Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, Weston Nakamura, and Jack Farley analyze today’s price action, as well as how the surge in job openings surge in the U.S. is reshaping dynamics in the American labor market. Lastly, Weston shares his thinking on correlations between U.S. bond yields and price swings in $AMC and other meme stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 10, 2021
Stocks Crash Worldwide as Reflation Trades Backfire
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DB-Jul08,2021: Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision’s Samuel Burke and Jack Farley to make sense of the risk-off sentiment that dragged down almost every stock index worldwide deep in the red. Boockvar scrutinizes the U.S. bond market and attributes the violent flattening of the yield curve to the FOMC meeting earlier this month that rocked market participants. He tells Burke and Farley how the churning of certain reflation trades in light of the Delta Variant is affecting his perspective on energy, copper, precious metals, as well as equity markets in Developed Asia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 09, 2021
Oil Crashes as Bond Yields Slide to 5-Month Low
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DB-Jul07,2021 :Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42Macro, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on FAANG stocks, the retreat from Chinese tech stocks, and the release of the FED’s FOMC minutes. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Samuel Burke to discuss the rise in tech stocks as bond yields fall to a 4-month low. Additionally, the trio analyzes DIDI’s situation amidst Chinese regulation and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting released today Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 09, 2021
Sygnum: Paving a New Banking System with Heritage
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Crypto Wednesday: Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal hosts Mathias Imbach, co-founder of Sygnum, to discuss Imbach's background, Sygnum's services, European regulations, central banks, and the future of digital currencies. The notion of leveraging today's internet infrastructure to monetize data at the cost of users triggered a fear in Imbach concerning where the current financial structure could ultimately lead. It was in the discovery of the Ethereum white paper that Imbach realized that there could be a better way with smart contracts giving users more control over their data. With that in mind, Imbach co-founded Sygnum with the goal to build a system that was regulatory compliant to help bring real adoption to the space, building a bridge from today's financial world to where they believe future finance will be. Imbach explains that Sygnum's mission is to empower everyone with more access to ownership and value, and he explains that while one may view a bank as doing the opposite because it is a centralized entity, it’s the first step toward that ultimate goal. It requires taking regulators, governments, and national banks along with you from a legacy system to help found and scale a new one. Key Learnings: Imbach states that although Sygnum has a banking license, he identifies the firm as a technology company. According to Imbach, the ethos of Sygnum is that the future has heritage. While the current financial infrastructure is heading towards a smarter, more decentralized, and accessible direction, elements of today's world will not simply vanish—Sygnum aims to combine these elements. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 07, 2021
OPEC+ stalls as China's Increases Regulatory Stance
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DB-Jul06,2021 :Weston Nakamura returns to the Daily Briefing to discuss his updated outlook on oil prices as OPEC+ struggles to strike a deal. Nakamura, joined by Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, shares his thoughts on other commodities and market sentiment as elevated prices could serve as evidence for temporary supply bottlenecks or persistent inflation. The pair looks at China’s increased regulation and its impact on Chinese companies traded in U.S. markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 07, 2021
David Rosenberg: Is US Economic Strength Here to Stay?
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The Interview: At a time when the mainstream narrative revolves around the risk of an overheating US economy and consumer price inflation, David Rosenberg, president and chief economist & strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., is the ultimate contrarian voice. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Rosenberg acknowledges the strength of the US economy and is willing to switch tack if the data warrant it later this year. However, he expects, contrary to most, that the economy’s vigor will fade as government stimulus does and that the post-financial crisis precautionary savings rates to go even higher in this cycle, resulting in less growth and less inflation than is priced into US equities. Rosenberg remains bullish on bonds and on Asian equities, particularly in China. Believing that alpha is king now, he thinks we have entered a stock picker’s world where riding an uptrend through passive investing or in ETFs will not work. Filmed on April 27, 2021. If you want to keep up with Rosenberg's research, you can start a free 30-day trial here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 04, 2021
Equities Surge as U.S. Jobs Increase Beats Expectations
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DB-Jul02,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and Mark Ritchie II, CIO at RTM Capital Advisors, to discuss the June jobs report and capital markets price action. The trio covers the strong increase in U.S. jobs and its effects on underlying markets. Bennington and Farley analyze the rise in both bonds and stocks as positive employment data boost investor confidence. Ritchie provides his insight into the equity markets and the potential rotation back into tech. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 03, 2021
OPEC Set to Boost Oil Production as Unemployment Applications Fall
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DB-Jul01,2021 :Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, managing editor, and Weston Nakamura to discuss the decline in U.S. jobless claims and surging oil prices as OPEC agrees to increase production. The trio covers the economic recovery as jobless claims decline and advanced unemployment benefits expire. Additionally, they explain the implications of OPEC’s decision to increase production starting in August as oil prices spike due to demand from wealthy countries. Burke and Farley continue to follow the delta variant as new countries institute travel restrictions to prevent the spread. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 02, 2021
The Ideological Trade: Value, Oil, and InflationDraft Episode for Jun 30, 2021
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DB-Jul01,2021 :Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, managing editor, and Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap to the Daily Briefing to discuss U.S. treasury yields, commodity prices, and delta variant concerns. Dillian explains his investment framework amidst growing fears of the delta variant in the U.S. The trio covers decreasing treasury yields and their effect on the inflation trade. Further, they examine the nuances of the commodity market as lumber prices move lower and oil prices remain resilient. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jul 01, 2021
Decentralized Finance (DeFi): The Future of Finance
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Crypto Wednesday: To learn more about Decentral Park and how to participate in their fund visit: http://rvtv.io/DeFiinvestment John Quinn, CIO and general partner of Decentral Park Capital, discusses the fastest growing sector of the crypto market today—decentralized finance (DeFi). Founded in 2017, Decentral Park Capital is a digital asset manager that brings a combination of long experience in traditional finance, emerging market business development, and deep domain expertise in the digital asset domain. Quinn describes DeFi as a collection of applications across a wide range of financial primitives that seek to replicate legacy financial blocks on-chain, which means middle-men are quickly being replaced by middleware, unlocking huge efficiencies in the process. DeFi has already climbed to a $120 billion market in just a few years, finding clear product-market fit along the way, and Decentral Park’s thesis is that DeFi represents the brand new backbone of the global financial system. Decentral Park is launching their new 24-month DeFi Fund that will be investing solely in assets that sit within this growing DeFi ecosystem. Prior to Decentral Park Capital, John co-founded Storj Labs, a leading decentralized cloud storage provider. Prior to that, he was a tech investment banker at Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key Learnings: One of the most valuable aspects of DeFi is that it is open and permissionless, which stands in stark contrast to traditional finance. DeFi has grown tremendously over the last few years, but it is still in the very early days in its adoption life cycle. Decentral Park Capital's use of on-chain data can provide valuable insights to those looking for big investment opportunities in the DeFi space. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 30, 2021
Are Investors Correctly Pricing Delta Variant Risk?
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DB-Jun29,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision interim managing editor Samuel Burke and Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s rebound and market sentiment as delta variant fears grow. Thornton shares his bullish outlook for Bitcoin and potential explanations for its recent bounce from 6-month lows. In addition, Burke provides a unique perspective on European lockdowns and investor opinions as the delta variant of Covid-19 continues to spread. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 30, 2021
Darius Dale: End of Market Goldilocks? Oil, the Dollar, and Bitcoin
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DB-Jun28,2021: Real Vision managing editor Samuel Burke welcomes Jack Farley and Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to the Daily Briefing to discuss Dale’s macro outlook and weigh the possibility of deflation. The trio will cover the recent U.K. ban on Binance and its effects on crypto assets. Additionally, they will discuss the strength of the dollar and GDP projections in a potentially deflationary environment. Finally, they will examine oil stocks ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled for Thursday. For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 29, 2021
Michael Vranos - Lessons from the King of Structured Credit
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Real Vision Live Replay: Michael Vranos, founder and CEO of Ellington Management Group, has been known as "the most powerful man on Wall Street" and, over the course of his almost 30 years running Ellington, has been able to adapt his firm, generating exceptional risk-adjusted returns through the LTCM crisis in 1998, the GFC in 2008, and most recently the COVID-19 crisis of 2020. In this interview with Raoul Pal, Vranos will share his personal journey; the early lessons he learned from LTCM and how he structured his firm accordingly; his views on leverage, tail risk hedging, and the costs and benefits of illiquid investments; and the current opportunities he is eyeing in financial equities like REITs, structured credit, and loan securitization. Viewers should be aware that this is an interview for pros by pros, and although not inherently actionable for most individual investors, it should be viewed as an unbelievable look behind the curtain of how one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time thinks about markets and the business of running a hedge fund. To go alongside this segment, we've prepared a set of notes for this interview. You can access them here: https://rvtv.io/3gm1vYf For our Listeners: Head to https://www.rocketlawyer.com/workconfidently to start your free 7-day trial today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 28, 2021
Gary Shilling: What Is the Consensus View Getting Wrong?
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The Interview: Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to evaluate the health of the economy and how it impacts the future path of assets such as bonds, real estate, and stocks. Shilling notes that the consensus view—that the economy is going to re-open very rapidly, that inflation is going to come roaring back, and that interest rates will go through the roof—contradicts the lessons he has learned across his storied career in financial markets. Shilling argues that the four-decade-long trend of declining interest rates on U.S. Treasurys will continue, and he shares with Harrison several investment ideas in commodities and bonds that allow investors to be cautious without being actively bearish. Shilling and Harrison also discuss trends such as working-from-home, the residential real estate boom, and the savings glut in Asian countries. Recorded on April 21, 2021. Key learnings: Shilling is very bullish on bonds and views the recent rise in commodity prices with some skepticism. He has his eye on small positions and is only willing to size-up his trades once he has seen confirmation of his thesis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 27, 2021
How Green Energy Will Forever Transform the Commodities Sector
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The Interview: Marin Katusa, chairman of Katusa Research, returns to Real Vision to share a new thesis on how the rise of ESG (environmental, social, and governance) will forever transform the way commodities are produced. Katusa argues that companies that comply with ESG standards will be able to secure a lower cost of capital and, in so doing, will be at an extreme advantage to those who do not. Katusa provides his updated views on gold, silver, copper, uranium, and rare earths, and he argues that green energy will be a catalyst for America to re-emerge as the global hegemon of the world order. Katusa is the author of the recently released book, "The Rise of America: Remaking the World Order." Recorded on May 20, 2021. Key learnings: Katusa argues that companies and investors who can ride the ESG wave will be handsomely rewarded, but that those who ignore this inexorable change do so at their own peril. He is very constructive on carbon credits, particularly "blue" carbon credits, and thinks that copper and silver might have run a bit too hot. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 26, 2021
Raoul Pal: Preparing for the Exponential Age Amid Inflationary Pressure
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DB-Jun25,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal to the Daily Briefing to discuss his thoughts on inflation, the strength of the dollar, and winners in an exponential age. The pair will cover potential explanations for flattened personal spending as continued supply constraints push prices higher. Additionally, they will dive into the companies positioned to succeed in an era that emphasizes network effects. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 26, 2021
A U.S. Infrastructure Deal Is Reached and Bank Stress Tests Loom
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Db-Jun24,2021 : Real Vision’s Samuel Burke, Jack Farley Ash Bennington discuss U.S President Joe Biden’s announcement that a deal on infrastructure has been reached, and the potential significance that the bond market barely budged on the news. They also analyze how the re-emergence of share buybacks will affect an equity market that continues to make all-time highs. The three also explore whether recent economic data, such as durable goods orders and jobless claims, indicate a rising potential of deflation. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. http://www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 25, 2021
NASDAQ Grinds Higher as Bitcoin Bounces Back
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DB-Jun23,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Samuel Burke, Real Vision managing editor, and Weston Nakamura to the Daily Briefing to discuss the S&P 500 trending higher, effects of global vaccination campaigns, and the rise in oil prices. The trio will analyze the bullish sentiment present in the market as vaccination rates continue to improve. Nakamura and Burke also look at the oil market as summer driving demand escalates. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. http://www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 24, 2021
Zcash: History, Privacy, and the Future of Web 3
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Crypto Wednesday: Aztec co-founder Thomas Walton-Pocock hosts Zooko Wilcox, CEO of Electric Coin Company, to discuss Zcash, privacy, technical barriers, and innovation. Zcash, a decentralized, open-source cryptocurrency, is most identified by individuals for its built-in encryption which allows for private data in a public blockchain. Zcash's most important feature, according to Wilcox, is its dev fund—it's self-funding, which allows developers to continuously improve the protocol in order to prevent the currency from being undermined, weakened, vulnerable to capture, or steered in a direction for an individual's benefit. Some investors treat privacy, whether offered by Zcash or any other protocol, merely as an additional feature; however, Wilcox explains that because privacy is a fundamental aspect of its design, the Zcash protocol is stronger than other protocols that add privacy as a feature on top. Recorded on April 20, 2021. Key Learnings: According to Wilcox, privacy is a human right—consumers need it and are losing it to the internet. Wilcox saw Bitcoin as having a head start, and Zcash would be a niche alternative for those who were especially sensitive or motivated, or most importantly, for commerce. With its funding, continuous evolution, and use of zero knowledge, Wilcox believes that Zcash and its scalability could become the gold standard for usage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 23, 2021
Bitcoin Crashes as Stocks Flirt with All-Time Highs
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DB-Jun,22,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry and to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s crash, FED Chair Powell’s testimony, and market sentiment as stocks rebound. The pair will cover potential explanations for Bitcoin’s reversal as well as implications for companies in the space such as Coinbase. Additionally, they will dive into both commodity and stock market reactions to FED Chair Powell’s testimony on the state of the economy. Special Festival of Learning offer - 10% off with the code DAILYBRIEFING. www.realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 23, 2021
Is Crude Oil the Best Inflation Hedge? And Other Oil Questions
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The Interview: Michael Kao, CEO of Akanthos Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to give his outlook on oil and energy markets. Kao highlights energy's outperformance in inflationary environments, positive roll dynamics making carrying long oil futures more attractive, and the shift in policy for OPEC+. Kao also highlights two potential feedback loops he sees for oil--one sending prices higher and the other creating issues for oil and other risk assets. Finally, Kao takes a long-term view analyzing when and how EV penetration will actually affect oil demand and the question of whether shale production will spoil the next big oil price spike. Recorded on April 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 22, 2021
The Fallout from the FED's Dot Plot
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DB-JUN 21,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes editor Jack Farley and managing editor Samuel Burke to the Daily Briefing to discuss Bitcoin’s recent decline, FED policy implications, and American Airlines. The trio will analyze China’s crackdown on Bitcoin mining as well as increased regulation of cryptocurrency services for China’s largest banks. Additionally, they will cover American Airline’s logistical problems as travel demand returns and explain the differing inflation outlooks highlighted in the FED’s dot plot ahead of Chair Powell’s meeting with Congress on Tuesday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 22, 2021
What Currencies Are Saying About the Sell-Off ( w/ Andreas Steno Larsen )
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Real Vision Live Replay: The global currency market dwarfs all other markets in its size. Although in weeks like this it is easy to get sucked in by the high volatility in equities, bonds, and crypto, the currency market can provide huge signals about what is actually going on under the surface. Andreas Steno Larsen, chief strategist at Nordea Markets, returns to Real Vision to update viewers on his outlook for major and exotic currency pairs and to help viewers make sense of the signals that currencies are sending for other assets amid a spike in bond and equity volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 21, 2021
The Tiger Cub Investing in Technologies Driving the Future of Agriculture
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The Interview: Dwight Anderson of Ospraie Ag Science is well known as one of Julian Robertson’s famous "Tiger Cubs" and, for the last 20 years, has been one of the leading investors in agriculture and farming. After realizing the headwinds on the horizon for farmers and traditional agriculture investments, his focus has shifted to the cutting edge of agriculture technologies that will help farmers combat these headwinds by farming smarter, more efficiently, and more sustainably. In addition to highlighting the most important trends and technologies in agtech, Anderson will discuss the case for agtech as an ESG investment for carbon reduction, illustrate the ways agtech can help fight nutritional disparities in the U.S., and break down the difference in opportunity sets between public and private markets. Recorded on April 16, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 20, 2021
Raoul Pal: The Dollar is the King
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DB-Jun18,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to explore recent price action of the key macro variable--the dollar--and its impact on markets. In light of the DXY breaking to the upside in the past couple days, Pal provides an update on his macro outlook and where the inflation narrative fits into his perspective. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 19, 2021
Commodities Plunge as NASDAQ Holds Firm
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DB-Jun17,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley welcome Real Vision’s new interim managing editor Samuel Burke to the Daily Briefing. The trio cover the big declines in commodities such as gold, oil, and soybeans alongside a rally in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond and technology stocks. In the crypto world, Burke inspects the World Bank’s rejection of El Salvador’s request to use Bitcoin as legal tender, and Bennington updates viewers on the utter collapse of a stablecoin known as Titan. Farley and Burke also take a look at OnlyFans’ exploration to sell shares as well as the Bank of America’s fund managers survey, which shows that the majority of portfolio managers agree with the Federal Reserve that inflation will be transitory. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 18, 2021
All Eyes On The Fed: Will The Market Hear Some Taper Talk?
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DB-Jun16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Real Vision’s Ed Harrison and Jack Farley to break down an action-packed day as Fed Chair Jerome Powell responds to mounting inflationary pressure with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluding their two-day policy meeting. The group covers how the market participants are reacting in real time, not only to the Fed’s direct actions but also their forward projections of interest rates (known as “the dot plot”) as well as their estimates for future economic growth and inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 17, 2021
Welcome to the Metaverse: The First Digital Real Estate NFT Fund
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Real Vision Crypto: As people are spending increasingly more time in virtual worlds (also known as the metaverse), Janine Yorio, managing director of Republic Realm, joins Real Vision's Haley Draznin to discuss an entirely new asset class that has evolved: digital real estate investment. The fund focuses on the acquisition, management, development, and sale of virtual land, known as parcels, across metaverses including Decentraland, The Sandbox, Axie Infinity, CryptoVoxels, among others. Recorded on April 21, 2021. Key Learnings: Digital real estate has the potential to deliver long-term outsized returns due to the rise of cryptocurrencies and the rapidly growing digital currency asset class. It is evolving into a viable store of wealth like real-world real estate, real-world art, and even website domain names due to its scarcity value, ability to monetize from high "foot traffic" and transferability. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 16, 2021
Tony Greer: What Should Investors Watch Out For At The Fed Meeting?
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DB-Jun15,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to anticipate the Fed’s forecasts and policy moves and explore where Greer thinks markets are headed next. Greer provides a strategic update on commodities, equities, and the macro picture as well as his thoughts on inflation’s trajectory. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 16, 2021
Looking Under the Hood of China's Economic Data ( w/ Leland Miller )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, joins Ed Harrison on Real Vision Live to share his perspective on the true health and trajectory of the Chinese economy. By mainstream measures, China has made a swift recovery from the shock of COVID—but not everyone is willing to trust this data. Leland Miller has made it his business to dig deeper than the official Chinese data to get a true gauge of what is happening in the world's second-largest economy. Miller and Harrison will break down the discrepancies between China Beige Book's data and the official data, discussing how investors should react to these differences. Recorded on Mar 3 , 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 15, 2021
Making Sense of the FED's Inflation Data
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DB-June14,2021:Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Ed Harrison, managing editor at Real Vision, to the Daily Briefing to discuss the market’s reaction to last week’s CPI print as well as Bitcoin’s rebound. The pair will analyze the fall in bond yields and stock market growth as investors anticipate the FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and continued dovish FED policies. Additionally, they will examine Bitcoin’s recent reversal as Paul Tudor Jones and Elon Musk publicly state their support. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 15, 2021
Meb Faber: A Framework for Outperformance
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The Interview: Jason Buck of the Mutiny Fund welcomes Mebane Faber, co-founder and chief investment officer of Cambria Investments, for an in-depth conversation on the methods diligent investors can use to build and maintain wealth in all market environments. Faber breaks down his rigorous quantitative models to share fresh insights on bonds, equities, real estate, and commodities as well as the role these assets play within a portfolio. Faber and Buck discuss the importance of negatively correlated assets such as put options, which are a key feature of the Cambria Tail Risk ETF ($TAIL). Key learnings: Equity valuations are stretched thin, but buying at all-time highs has historically yielded surprisingly good returns. Faber thinks non-U.S. stocks are underrepresented in the typical U.S. portfolio and argues that for most individual investors, steady contributions to their portfolio matter much more than eking out that extra percentage of return. Recorded on 14 April 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 13, 2021
Danny Moses: The Ghosts of Hidden Leverage
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The Interview: Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures, joins Mike Green for a conversation on how to make sense of a market characterized by surging equity valuations and ultra-tight credit spreads that is nevertheless prone to gamma squeezes, forced liquidations, and the implosion of billion dollar funds. Moses, an investor profiled in the "The Big Short," compares the current boom to the bubble the predated the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and concludes that the unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus are pushing investors further and further out on the risk curve. Green details the role of passive investing, and the two discuss the blow-ups of Greensill and Archegos. Lastly, Moses shares his insights on the cannabis sector as well as the prospect of rising inflation. Recorded on April 7, 2021. Key learnings: Risk-taking in today's market is nearing its apogee; nevertheless, Moses sees extremely promising opportunities on the long- as well as short-side. Moses stresses the importance of doing one's own research and argues that skepticism is a key for any successful investor, particularly in today's environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 12, 2021
Raoul Pal: Examining Shifts in the Global Macro Policy Paradigm
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DB-Jun11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to the Daily Briefing to discuss the changes in the macro policy paradigm globally. Pal will be analyzing the impact these shifts will have economically, whether global macro investments can still perform in light of these shifts, and whether crypto ultimately benefits in the aftermath. He will also be unveiling the legendary headline guest at the upcoming Festival of Learning (June 23-25). Don't have your ticket yet? You can get it through this link: http://realvision.com/festival-of-learning-2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 12, 2021
Bracing for Inflation Data: Will All Hell Break Loose?
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DB- Jun9,2021: Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he is gauging market sentiment before tomorrow’s momentous release of key inflation data. The average estimate for the yearly change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 4.7%, and Dillian argues that if a figure comes with a “3-handle,” we could see some fireworks in the market. Dillian also shares his views on other pockets of the market he has his eye on such as Bitcoin and uranium. For tickets to the Festival of Learning, click here: realvision.com/festival. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 10, 2021
QCP Capital: A Breakdown of Asia's Crypto Markets
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Crypto Wednesday: Darius Sit and Joshua Ho, co-founders of QCP Capital, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Asia's crypto demand, how it differs from the West, and the future of those markets. Sit explains that almost no one in China uses physical dollars any more and that the existing, widespread usage of digital payments paves way for a smooth transition into the adoption of crypto payments. Ho mentions that this isn't just specific to Asia—all countries with a remittance corridor are likely to find utility and value from adopting crypto payments systems, which allow them to bypass the high intracountry remittance costs. They both believe that corporations are almost ready to begin allocating capital to the crypto space, but they are now looking for the most appropriate products to allocate to as crypto seems to have now been broadly accepted and legitimized. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings: China already has a strong digital-first culture and will likely be able to pivot to crypto payments much faster than other places. Remittances seem to be the most important factor in the usage of crypto in Asia and elsewhere as it allows them to bypass high fees when sending money to friends and family in different jurisdictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 09, 2021
Bullish Sentiment Holds Firm As New Meme Stocks Emerge
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DB-June8,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Thomas Thornton to discuss the inflation debate ahead of the US CPI number to be released Thursday and the bullish sentiment present in markets. The pair examines the effect of Bitcoin’s illegal use and confiscation on the downturn that the asset has recently experienced. In addition, they look to make sense of meme stock mania as Wendy’s and Clover Health stocks explode higher. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 09, 2021
Takeaways from the Miami Bitcoin Conference
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DB-June7,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington sit down together on the Daily Briefing to provide their insights into today’s market price action and share their experience at the Miami Bitcoin conference from this past weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 08, 2021
Weak Demand and the Return to "Normal" Illusion ( w/ Paul Hodges )
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RV Live replay: Paul Hodges of The pH Report and New Normal Consulting returns to Real Vision to update viewers on the health of the global economy and what that means for financial markets. Hodges and his team see big changes on the horizon and, through their analysis of the chemical industry, auto market, and technology sector, see a return to the "old normal" as being highly unlikely. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Hodges highlights the important data leading him to believe that post-COVID the world will look very different as demand patterns shift, reshoring continues, and momentum for "the green recovery" grows. An excerpt from the most recent edition of The pH Report looking at the auto market can be found here: https://www.realvision.com/issues/auto-markets-shaken-by-covid-and-evs. To access Hodges' charts, please use this link: https://rvtv.io/3bvZXqA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 08, 2021
Jens Nordvig: The Death of Fixed Income
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The Interview: Danish-born economist Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, a data and analytics firm for institutional investors that specializes in foreign exchange markets and macroeconomic policy, joins Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal for a deep-dive conversation on the global economic outlook; the impact of the vaccine rollout on the U.S., Europe and emerging markets; and the likelihood of multi-year fiscal stimulus. Nordvig sees monetary policy frameworks evolving in ways that are unfriendly toward bonds, like Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), causing a fundamental rethinking among investors for owning fixed income assets. Recorded April 7, 2020. Key Learnings: A multi-decade bull market in fixed income lasted longer than many expected due to negative interest rate policy, and the COVID shock made central banks across the globe max out monetary policy. Interest rates are currently unattractive to many kinds of investors, and the economic outlook is such that risk assets look attractive, including cryptocurrency. Follow @jnordvig @ExanteData. Visit Exante Data (https://www.exantedata.com/). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 07, 2021
Marko Papic: Generating Geopolitical Alpha
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The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 05, 2021
Equities and Bonds Retreat as "BANG" Stocks Squirm
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DB-Jun3,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura guide viewers through a topsy-turvy day of price action where U.S. stocks and bonds sell off together as the “BANG” meme stocks (Blackberry, AMC, Nokia, and GameStop) pare some of yesterday’s gains. They also roll a pre-recorded segment of Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and crypto editor Ash Bennington, who reports from Miami’s 2021 Bitcoin conference. Farley and Nakamura close by reviewing the Fed’s decision to sell its holdings of corporate bonds and analyzing what the potential knock-on effects would be if the Turkish Lira were to continue to deteriorate. To read more of Weston's thoughts on the relationship of Bitcoin, gold, and the Turkish Lira, click here: https://rvtv.io/BTCLiraGoldEXCH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 04, 2021
Second Coming of the Meme Stocks?
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DB-Jun2,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura cover the resurgence of “meme stocks” such as AMC Entertainment Holdings ($AMC) and Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY). They analyze the seemingly inexorable rise of commodities like oil as well as growth stocks such as Tesla Inc ($TSLA) that may be struggling to regain their footing. Nakamura also looks at the surge in Dogecoin and the halt of once-hot investments such as SPACs and NFTs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 03, 2021
QCP Capital: A Breakdown of Asia's Crypto Markets
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Crypto Wednesday: Darius Sit and Joshua Ho, co-founders of QCP Capital, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Asia's crypto demand, how it differs from the West, and the future of those markets. Sit explains that almost no one in China uses physical dollars any more and that the existing, widespread usage of digital payments paves way for a smooth transition into the adoption of crypto payments. Ho mentions that this isn't just specific to Asia—all countries with a remittance corridor are likely to find utility and value from adopting crypto payments systems, which allow them to bypass the high intracountry remittance costs. They both believe that corporations are almost ready to begin allocating capital to the crypto space, but they are now looking for the most appropriate products to allocate to as crypto seems to have now been broadly accepted and legitimized. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings: China already has a strong digital-first culture and will likely be able to pivot to crypto payments much faster than other places. Remittances seem to be the most important factor in the usage of crypto in Asia and elsewhere as it allows them to bypass high fees when sending money to friends and family in different jurisdictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 02, 2021
Market Froth, Anti-Bubbles, and the Consequences of Unparalleled Monetary Easing ( w/ Diego Parrilla )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles," weighs in on the ongoing conversation around bubbles in this interview with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal. Parrilla goes in-depth on where he thinks markets are providing the most opportunity as well as where they're unveiling risks, and he breaks down his unique portfolio management style to navigate the current environment. He also considers whether monetary policy has reached its limits in the midst of unparalleled monetary easing from global central banks. Parrilla and Pal also will be answering questions from the audience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jun 01, 2021
Gold, Active Management, and Macro Hedge Funds: The Alaska Permanent Fund's Unconventional Allocation
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The Interview: The Alaska Permanent Fund is the $75 billion sovereign wealth fund of the state of Alaska, and since oil was discovered in Alaska in the 1970s, the APF has been receiving royalties and investing that capital on behalf of Alaskan citizens. Every year, it pays out a dividend—a form of UBI—to the citizens, who also do not pay any state income tax. In this interview with Sean Fieler, president and CIO of Equinox Partners, Marcus Frampton, CIO of the APF, explains his own unconventional views on investing and how he is bucking the trend in the large institutional investor space. Together, they discuss why Frampton has allocated the APF in gold, active management, and macro hedge funds while resisting the urge to chase private equity like many of his peers. They also discuss Frampton's personal investing style and why he is so attracted to micro-cap stocks and OTC markets. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Key Learnings: Institutional investors, who are the major forces in global markets, are largely driven by the actuarial projections of consultants and, with a few exceptions like Marcus Frampton and the APF, tend to cluster into similar portfolios and assets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 30, 2021
Marko Papic: Generating Geopolitical Alpha ( w/ Mike Green )
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The Interview: Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, joins Michael Green to discuss how and why geopolitics will have major effects on markets in the coming years with a particular focus on U.S.-China relations. They discuss everything from Taiwan and the issue of semiconductor supply chains to other actors like Russia as well as the merits and faults of Cold War analogies. They also touch on what Papic calls "the most important macro chart of this cycle" and the domestic issue of income inequality and the resulting policy outcomes. Finally, Green and Papic help viewers understand the magnitude of the green energy initiatives and what Papic believes are the best and worst ways to gain exposure to this megatrend. Recorded on March 31, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 29, 2021
Raoul Pal: Update on Crypto Markets and the Macro Outlook
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DB- May28,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss his macro outlook, inflation, and crypto markets. Pal will be sharing his observations of the crypto selloff from last week and taking questions from the audience about his current market thinking. In observance of Memorial Day in the US this coming Monday, May 31st, there will be no Daily Briefing airing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 29, 2021
Jobs, Re-Opening, and Inflation: How Transitory is "Transitory"?
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DB-May27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, back to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on how the bond market is reacting to the re-opening of the economy and the sustained dovishness of the Federal Reserve. Bianco analyzes how the Fed’s bias towards employment within its dual mandate is impacting inflation expectations and bond yields, and he and Harrison discuss today’s jobless claims within that context as well as ballooning budget deficits and central bank balance sheet expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 28, 2021
Jared Dillian on Risk Management and "The Inflation Inflection Point"
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DB-May26,2021: Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update viewers on his inflation thesis and the re-opening trade. He tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley why he thinks the re-opening might already be fully priced in and shares advice to investors on how to manage their risk in stocks, bonds, gold – as well as Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 27, 2021
The Case for "Bitcoin Maximalism"
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Crypto Wednesday: Brad Mills, host of Magic Internet Money Podcast and partner at Xsquared Ventures, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss everything Bitcoin—from the Block Size Debate in 2017 to the philosophical vs investment reasons for owning Bitcoin and misinformation around the Bitcoin narrative, this interview covers it all. Mills explains that while Bitcoin Maximalists have been around as early as 2014 during the first alt season, the community was more harmonious as there was an understanding that Bitcoin was going to be the winner and what everyone was striving for. Altcoins were instead seen as experiments that one could mine, sell, or trade for more bitcoins. Come 2017, there had been a shift in mentality where many VCs were simply trying to redo Bitcoin. Mills goes on to explain that the ICO boom triggered a reaction, causing "Toxic Bitcoin Maximalism," a response to those falsely aligning with Bitcoin while trying to shill their subscriptions and exchanges or capture volume on their stable coins or altcoins. Recorded on April 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Fundamentally, the view of original Bitcoiners is that they do not want Bitcoin to be taken over or influenced by corporations in a way that is not in consensus with the node runners and developers of the network. In the eyes of these Bitcoiners, if corporations set the rules of Bitcoin because they have all the money, what precedent is set for governments? Further, the core tenant of Bitcoiners is that decentralization is most important and must be retained above everything else—even price and adoption. Mills goes on to state that the most important thing Satoshi did when inventing Bitcoin is that you could have consensus achieved on a ledger in a way that no government could shut down. Censorship resistance is the most important thing to any blockchain, and if there is no resistance, it should not be a considered a blockchain. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 26, 2021
Tommy Thornton: Reverse Repos and Ebbing Consumer Confidence
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DB-May25,2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to sharing his latest insights on market activity as U.S. consumer confidence falls slightly for May and questions about inflation’s permanence still linger. Thornton considers the implications of the repo market displaying surging levels of reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) and explains what indicators he’s paying attention to and what that means for markets going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 26, 2021
China Is Cracking Down on More Than Just Crypto
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DB- May24,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s most important market-moving stories—from China’s clampdown on commodity speculation and Bitcoin mining to the supply chain bottlenecks that may at last spur durable capex investment from companies in order to meet demand. Harrison and Farley cover the day’s price action in which global equities drift higher alongside commodities such as gold and crude oil as well as the crypto volatility, which did not abate over the weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 25, 2021
The Asset Overvaluation Debate and the Future of Risk-Parity( w/ with Alex Gurevich )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Here at Real Vision, we are exploring the question, "Is Everything a Bubble?" To many investors though, that question doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of what needs to be considered in the current environment. In this live interview, Alex Gurevich, founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss his position on what he thinks are the biggest questions facing investors today. Together, Gurevich and Pal will explore the future of risk-parity, the raging overvaluation debate and the role of interest rate momentum in equities, and the dichotomies in outcomes surrounding the dollar, precious metals, and interest rates. In addition, Gurevich will weigh in on the current discussion de jour around short-selling, how investors should think about navigating crisis vs. being positioned for the long-term, and why many are confusing features for bugs in the gold vs. bitcoin debate. Recorded on : 8 Feb 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 24, 2021
Rocky Roads: Geopolitics, Crypto & the Future of Electric Vehicles
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DB-May21,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of an action-packed week. They interpret the bullish PMIs coming from Europe and the U.S., the latest news from the credit markets, and a crypto market trying to regain its footing. They also discuss what the new electric Ford F-150 means for electric vehicle companies, and how the brewing tensions between China and Taiwan might impact financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 22, 2021
U.S. Treasury Department Focuses In on Crypto: Implications for Speculative Fervor and Reflation
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DB-May20,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison to tackle the Treasury’s call for crypto transfers equaling $10,000 and above to be begin being reported to the IRS. Ed discusses his thoughts about how the reflation trade has buoyed the most speculative areas of the market, crypto being included, due to the underperformance of real economic data, and he and Ash discuss the implications that the Treasury’s announcement will have on crypto going forward and what that means for the broader market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 21, 2021
Making Sense of Crypto Turmoil (featuring Raoul Pal)
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DB-May19, 2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura host the Daily Briefing on this action-packed day where almost every asset class seemed to plummet: stocks, commodities, and, most dramatically, crypto. In an emergency dispatch with senior editor Ash Bennington, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal helps viewers make sense of a crypto market undergoing tremendous volatility, including its sudden drop and then vibrant rebound. Farley and Nakamura close by analyzing the bond market and the surge of a trend that Nakamura calls “subprime retail.” Join the Exponential Age now and watch it all for $1 right here: https://www.realvision.com/l/the-exponential-age Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 19, 2021
Tony Greer: Commodities Going Full Steam Ahead.
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DB-May18,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro for a live Daily Briefing to analyze the tape and provide an update on his thoughts concerning the direction of inflation and the commodities trade. Greer touches on metals and mining as well as oil and discusses how likely it will be that inflation will become transitory based on last week’s CPI print. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 19, 2021
Revenge of the Miners: Green Energy Meets Natural Resources ( w/ Warren Irwin )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Warren Irwin, president and CIO of Rosseau Asset Management and one of the most successful natural resources investors of the past few decades, joins Real Vision’s Max Wiethe to discuss why he is investing in uranium, copper, nickel, and metallurgical coal producers as his bet on the green energy trend. Irwin argues that nuclear power will be a necessity to hit emissions targets and the idea that renewables like wind and solar could be relied upon to power humanity is ludicrous as that would require an inconceivable number of batteries. Although he is still bullish on batteries and the electrification trend, he argues that current favorites like lithium and cobalt are respectively too abundant and likely to be phased out of future iterations of battery technology, and he prefers copper, nickel, and metallurgical coal to play this trend. Irwin also highlights some individual companies he is looking at and touches on why he is currently underweight gold and generally against investing in silver. For our listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 17, 2021
Fourth Turning Update: The Pandemic's Impact on Demographics, the Economy, and Society
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The Interview: Even with birthrates slowing and rapid aging in the developed world, years like 2021 where deaths outpace new births are a huge demographic outlier. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Neil Howe, author and managing director of demographics at Hedgeye, helps viewers make sense of the outsized impact that events like this can have on demographic trends. Howe and Harrison also go further than the demographics to examine how this has impacted different generations and the key players in the Fourth Turning saga. Specifically, they examine trends around migration, housing, commercial real estate, COVID variant risk, and political polarization. Recorded on March 23, 2021. Key Learnings: As well as accelerating and altering the trajectory of many societal trends around urbanization, housing, and migration, the pandemic has altered the entire demographic trajectory of the developed world. Although these consequences will take time to become measurable, investors need to be aware of the effects this can have going forward on the economy and the fabric of society. For our listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 16, 2021
The Next Wave of Regulation, Adoption, and the Intersection of Private Cryptos and CBDCs ( w/ Kyle Bass & Peter Smith )
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The. Interview: It’s no secret that crypto has gone from a retail phenomenon to something increasingly embraced by institutions and professional investors. As well, the size of the market has gotten to a point that governments in the West and the East can no longer ignore it. In this interview with Kyle Bass, founder and CIO of Hayman Capital, Peter Smith, CEO and co-founder of Blockchain.com, discusses how governments in the West and East will approach regulation of crypto markets and how the world of private cryptos and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will interact rather than compete. They also discuss how Smith has built his firm accordingly and why he looks at Blockchain as more like the JP Morgan of crypto than something entirely retail-focused like TD Ameritrade. Finally, they touch on Smith's personal asset allocation, his predictions for crypto markets over the next year, and his own questions on Bass' outlook for inflation in 2021. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings: Private cryptos and CBDCs will interact rather than compete—but that does not mean all cryptos will survive. Crypto is increasingly competing with traditional finance in areas of "high finance," and the next wave of adoption will take place here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 15, 2021
Raoul Pal: Insights from "Welcome to the Exponential Age" Week 1
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DB-May15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, to review the first week of the campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Ed and Raoul explore how the past week’s interviews have either reinforced or dispelled Raoul’s macro thinking as well as what surprised him most. Raoul will also providing his insight into the sell-off in tech after the past four weeks of seeing the Nasdaq in the red. Join the Exponential Age now and watch it all for $1 right here: https://www.realvision.com/l/the-exponential-age Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 15, 2021
Making Sense of Yesterday's Sell-Off -- What's Next?
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DB-May13,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to contextualize yesterday’s sell-off and whether it is indicative of longer-term market troubles. Thornton will update his thinking concerning what sectors he has his eye on and how he’s positioning his trades since a full re-opening in the U.S. is almost here. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 13, 2021
Inflation Pains: Will the Fed Stay the Course?
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DB- May13,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss the huge inflationary print that is roiling equity markets. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 13, 2021
Dave Floyd: The Sell-Off Continues
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DB-May11,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to provide an update on the markets as U.S. equities continued their decline this morning as inflation pressure looms large on the horizon. As the U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rates reaches a 15-year high, Floyd will be sharing his perspective on the inflation narrative that has been roiling markets this year, what currency pairs he has his eye on, and what’s going on in S&P futures. For Our Listeners: Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 12, 2021
Nasdaq's Slump, Beyond Meat's Woes, and DogeCoin's Latest Rival ( w/ Kyla Scanlon )
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DB- May10,2025 - On today’s live edition of the Daily Briefing, Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Kyla Scanlon, investment partner at On Deck and financial content creator, for a conversation on the most important market stories driving markets, including Amazon’s eight-part bond issue, the NASDAQ’s slump, hacking of the Colonial fuel pipeline, and the launching of the Shiba Inu token (SHIB). Scanlon shares with Farley her analysis on today’s pullback in investment grade bond ETF $LQD, Beyond Meat’s earnings ($BYND), as well as the latest news on GameStop Corp ($GME). For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 11, 2021
Opposing Views on the Role of Government and the Essence of Money ( w/ Peter Schiff & Michael Green )
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The Interview: Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, and Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, sit down with Real Vision's king of neutrality, Ash Bennington, for a debate on the merits of MMT vs Austrian Economics, other questions around what the defining characteristics of good money actually are, and whether we will finally see the inflation that many have been calling for. Schiff and Green will also discuss their outlooks for various asset classes given their differing views on inflation, monetary policy, and the role of government. Recorded on April 22, 2021 For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 10, 2021
Get Ready for the Return of Secular Stagnation ( w/ Daniel Lacalle & Ed Harrison )
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The Interview: Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why fiscal and monetary policies, which have not generated inflation, will only make this situation worse, why he thinks there is only a few months left in the reflation trade, and the resulting asset allocation based on his outlook. They also discuss current pockets of value and the sectors that Lacalle considers to be value traps like energy and financials as well as Lacalle’s outlook for the dollar. Recorded on March 10, 2021. Key Learnings: Sectors like energy and financials, which have been benefiting from reflation narratives and trade at low multiples, should not be considered "value". Current negative views on the US and the dollar remind Lacalle of the GFC, but the reality is that the US and the dollar are still the cleanest dirty shirt. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 09, 2021
How Taxes Will Shape the Future ( w/ Dominic Frisby & Raoul Pal )
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The Interview: Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded to levels that almost guarantee increases in taxes. We can already see the effects as high-net-worth individuals and businesses leave high tax areas like California for lower tax areas like Florida, Texas, and the Cayman Islands. Dominic Frisby, author of "Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future," sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the history of taxes, sinister invisible taxes in the form of targeted inflation and monetary debasement, and the future of taxes considering the trends outlined above. Pal and Frisby also discuss the inevitability and virtues of some level of tax and cooperation and the potential for better tax structures to emerge from this crisis. Recorded on March 2, 2021. Key Learnings: Increased taxes, new taxes, and monetary debasement are almost an inevitability considering massive global deficits post-COVID. Immigration and migration patterns have already emerged, and geographies that recognize these trends and adjust their taxation and monetary system in a fair way will attract both human and traditional capital. For our Listeners : Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 08, 2021
Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"?
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DB-May7,2021: Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward. For our Listeners: Join Arca's  4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.  Blinkist: Go to blinkist.com/realvision, try it for seven days and save twenty five percent off your new subscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 08, 2021
Gold Breaks Out As Labor Market Trouble Endures
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DB-May6,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 07, 2021
Bitcoin: Savior of a Dying Empire? ( w/ Michael Krieger & Brent Johnson )
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Real Vision Crypto Wednesday: Michael Krieger, creator of Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to discuss their discovery of Bitcoin, the subculture, and the probability of a government shutdown. Krieger describes Bitcoin as a representation of a path or blueprint for humanity to follow: not just with money, but with nearly everything. They note that Bitcoin is decentralized, permissionless, and open-source, and that these three qualities are key to Bitcoin's success. Krieger also believes that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming more political, and he notes that the only 2 major political movements in this day and age are localism and Bitcoin. Recorded on March 18, 2021. Key Learnings: Krieger and Johnson believe that, although the current US infrastructure is still strong, citizens are looking to shift to more free and open sources in both their digital and physical lives. They believe that Bitcoin is better than any country's digital reserve currency because of its decentralized and open source nature. In their view the entire social, political, and economic organization of humans is being disrupted by Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 05, 2021
Tony Greer: Update on Inflation, Rates, and Commodities as Growth Stocks Decline
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DB-May4,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement today on interest rates, Bank of America’s warning of transitory hyperinflation, and Q1 earnings. Greer shares his perspective on Yellen’s assertion on the possible need to raise interest rates and how it impacted markets today, and he and Bennington speculate on whether the Fed will change course later in the year. Greer also considers the trajectory of inflation in light of Bank of America’s statement about transitory hyperinflation to come and explores why he feels this time is different for price inflation. Finally, Bennington and Greer touch on Q1 earnings and Dogecoin’s meteoric rise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 05, 2021
Warren Buffett on Stocks and Inflation - Plus the Interest Rate Swirl
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DB-May3,2021: Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 04, 2021
Will the U.S. Leave the Value of the Dollar to "Market Forces"? ( w/ Luke Gromen)
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Real Vision Live Replay: Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes the strength or weakness of the dollar cannot be left to market forces. Gromen argues that, if left to market forces, the sheer size of the U.S. Government deficit would crowd out global dollar markets, sending the dollar skyrocketing with devastating consequences for global markets. Paired with recent rhetoric from Janet Yellen about not seeking a weak dollar has shaken Gromen's conviction in near-term dollar weakness and the subsequent knock-on effects. Gromen and Harrison will also discuss Gromen's views on the Treasury market and why he thinks rates will be allowed to rise until something cracks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 03, 2021
The "Right" Price for Bonds, Demographics and Inflation, and Cheap Bets on Volatility ( w/ Harley Bassman)
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The Interview: With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there is perhaps no better time to hear from The Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman. In this interview with Logica Capital Advisors partner, chief strategist, and PM Mike Green, Bassman outlines his view that this move higher in rates is the bond market finally moving towards the "right" price after a decade of interest rate suppression. Green and Bassman discuss the positive and negative consequences of higher rates, a steeper yield curve, and monetary and fiscal policies like negative interest rates and stimulus checks. They also touch on the current opportunities that Bassman sees and his prediction of inflationary impulse due to demographics sometime between 2023 and 2025. Harley Bassman has provided a slide deck to accompany this interview which can be found here: https://rvtv.io/3cai4CR and his commentary on convexity can be found here: https://rvtv.io/38eiXZS. Recorded on March 3, 2021. Key Learnings: Bassman believes interest rates have been kept artificially low, and the current sell-off in bonds is the market moving towards the "right" price. He also advocates for investors to be long convexity and believes that OTM calls on equities and long-dated options on interest rates are extremely cheap. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 02, 2021
Jim Rogers: Identifying Opportunities While Markets Are Up to A Fever Pitch
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The. Interview: Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share his outlook on markets and the lessons he learned on his storied career. Rogers tells Pal that this current market environment, marked by record-low mutual fund cash levels and high levels of investing on margin, reminds him somewhat of the conditions prior to the "Black Monday" sell-off on October 19, 1987, which actually occurred on Rogers’ birthday. Rogers stresses the importance of thinking for oneself and argues that China is well-positioned to be the future engine of economic growth and technological progress. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Rogers is very constructive on commodities such as silver, oil, sugar, and various other agricultural opportunities. He notes speculative fervor in the current market, particularly in SPACs, but sees opportunities in China and Russia in addition to commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 01, 2021
Lessons from Earnings Season
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DB-Apr30,2021: Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a crazy week in markets in this live edition of the Daily Briefing. Alongside Real Vision’s Jack Farley, they examine how the momentous earnings announcements, particularly in big tech, impact valuations. Ash gives his take on the latest goings-on in the crypto world, and Ed and Jack review what rising yields on European bonds means for the continents recovery as well as the U.S. dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 01, 2021
Stock Earnings Galore: What Could Go Wrong?
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DB-Apr29,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura break down an action-packed day of earnings, economic data, and price movement. Farley shares updates on Amazon’s eye-popping earnings and the U.S. GDP growth figure of 6.4% (measured by annualized quarter-over-quarter change), and Nakamura makes sense of the equity market reaction to the seemingly rosy news coming from the economy as well as companies. They put in context the seemingly unstoppable surge in commodities such as lumber, oil, copper, and palladium with Nakamura providing key insight on declining volumes in the latter two commodities. He also looks at the bond market through the lens of the Japanese investor, somewhat attributing today’s sell-off in U.S. Treasurys to the Japanese holiday of “Golden Week.” Lastly, Nakamura looks at how the Japanese Stock Monex Group (8698 JT) is trading as a proxy to Bitcoin. To hear Nakamura’s full thoughts on Monex, check out today’s “Real Vision Daily Briefing Afterhours” on the Real Vision Exchange: rvtv.io/ExchAfterHours430. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 30, 2021
The Widening Chasm Between the Fed and Reality
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DB-Apr28,2021:Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to discuss his takeaways from today’s FOMC meeting. He expresses his concerns about Powell’s assessment of intensifying inflationary pressures as being only transitory and anticipates the bond market continuing to tighten over the next few months. Harrison and Boockvar then analyze the possibility of a fiscal cliff to come in the next year and the potential impact of tax increases on the economy as well as Boockvar’s perspective on the global economic recovery, the dollar, and how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 28, 2021
Abra: The Future of Crypto Banking ( w/ Bill Barhydt and Raoul Pal )
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Crypto Wednesday:: Abra CEO Bill Barhydt joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss Abra, the future role of banks, and security. Barhydt describes Abra as moving towards the vision of being a full bank for cryptocurrency as it offers trading and investing in over a hundred crypto assets as well as the option to earn interest and borrow against them. Barhydt does not believe traditional banks will have a value proposition over the next 25 years and suggests that many of them will either become crypto-centric or disappear. He explains that Abra provides the full spectrum of security needs for their customers, covering "cold, warm, and hot" custody solutions. This means that Abra provides custody solutions for short term active trading (hot) and for long term storage of assets (cold) and everything in between. Recorded on March 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Abra aims to become a full bank for crypto assets. Barhydt believes most banks will become crypto-centric or die out, and Abra provides the full spectrum of custody services for their wide range of customers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 28, 2021
Goldman Sachs' Economic Forecast, Market Pullback Risk, and Chinese Tech Stocks
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DB-Apr27,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss his current take on markets. Thornton explains the thin trading volume for this past month as sentiment remains high, and he explores Goldman Sachs’ newly published economic forecast, which cautions that there will be quarter-over-quarter GDP declines going forward even while the U.S. economic backdrop grows stronger. Bennington and Thornton also debrief Coinbase’s direct listing and his perspective on the growth of the crypto space, and they tackle Thornton’s thoughts on the Chinese tech sector and where he sees investible opportunities. Finally, he talks about energy as one of the best reopening bets out there and shares how he’s positioning his trades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 28, 2021
A Potential Pullback, Big Tech Privacy Initiatives, and The Future of Deficit Spending
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DB-Apr26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the great tax debate happening in the US, infrastructure, and privacy. Ed and Ash touch on earnings as well as the current momentum in markets, and Ed explains why he sees the potential for consolidation or an absolute pullback down the line when assessing the level of heightened bullish sentiment. As the US focuses its attention toward the reopening, Ed and Ash also consider the future of deficit spending, examining Biden’s infrastructure bill and the potential capital gains tax hike. They then turn their attention to Google’s and Apple’s privacy initiatives and what sort of implications this has for the tech sector going forward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 26, 2021
Inflation vs. Reflation: Why Risk Asset Prices Hinge on the Difference
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Real Vision Live Replay: James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss whether inflation or reflation is on the horizon and how either would impact risk asset prices in 2021. Bianco explains that markets often react to the start of the nominal growth cycle similarly—whether inflation or reflation is occurring—as it's difficult to distinguish which phenomenon is leading economic growth. Even as the consensus is reflation, Bianco expresses his concern over inflation posing an issue. He also reflects on why the valuations of non-profitable tech stocks have risen so rapidly and expounds on how this is in part due to a significant shift in the investors’ preferences for trading in individual names. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 26, 2021
What's Really Driving China's Strategic Objectives? ( w/
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The Interview: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the MIT Security Studies Program, sits down with his long-time friend Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors to discuss a multitude of factors affecting China's strategic objectives. Although they examine certain aspects like demographics and the trajectory of growth for China's military, the focus of the interview is on geography and how China’s large number of land borders and their perception of being blocked off from the Pacific Ocean by U.S. military presence in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines makes the "first island chain" a potential flashpoint for conflict. Green and Fravel also discuss Green's hypothesis that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are the deftest participants in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia. Recorded on February 25, 2021. Key Learnings: It wasn't too long ago that trade deal headlines were whipsawing markets back and forth. The outcome for U.S.-China relations is not set in stone, and investors need to be aware of the risks and opportunities presented by this conflict. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 25, 2021
Nick Kokonas: Derivatives Trader Turned Fine Dining Visionary
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The Interview: Nick Kokonas, founder and CEO of Tock, joins Jason Buck, co-founder and CIO of The Mutiny Fund, to share the lessons he has learned on his path from a derivatives trader, to a restauranter, and to a technologist and fine dining innovator. Kokonas recounts his beginnings in finance in Chicago's trading pits, where he witnessed firsthand the perils of selling tail-risk, or extremely out-of-the-money options. Kokonas and Buck exchange outlooks on options trading and "the Greeks," before Buck prompts Kokonas to share how he founded restaurants such as Trio, Roister, and Alinea (the only restaurant in all of Chicago to retain three Michelin stars). Kokonas shares how identifying and solving the multitude of problems that befall the restaurant industry let him to create Tock. Recorded on March 19, 2021. Key learnings: Most restaurants waste a tremendous amount of time and money, and Kokonas uses the skills he gained as an options trader to spot inefficiencies and innovate in common practices such as dropping checks, making reservations, and ordering ingredients. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 24, 2021
Relentless Markets & Paper Cuts: The Return of Volatility?
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DB-Apr,23-2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a live talk on the biggest market-moving stories as the week comes to a close. Harrison covers credit and shares additional thoughts on “The Great Biden Tax Grab.” Bennington makes sense of today’s economic data and takes a look at the cooling-off of crypto prices as well as the widening spread between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and its net asset value. Farley looks at price action in commodities such as lumber, oil, as well as the recent shocking news from Kimberly Clark that the bull market in toilet paper could be over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 24, 2021
Whispers of Tax Hikes Spook Stocks - Plus Defining "The New Normal"
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DB-Apr23,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley tackle the whispers of a capital gains tax hike on America’s wealthiest investors, which triggered a midday sell-off in U.S. equities. Harrison analyzes the progress of global vaccination efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 and argues why he believes the “fourth wave” of COVID-19 in the U.S. is very unlikely to destabilize the economy. Harrison shares with Farley how he sees industries evolving their businesses in a world that is fully re-opened yet still wracked by infection risk, something he terms “the new normal.” This conversation leads to Farley’s analysis of the earnings reports of Southwest Airlines Co ($LUV) and American Airlines Group ($AAL). Lastly, Farley and Harrison take a brief detour into Dogecoin as well as commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 23, 2021
Dollar Dump Breathes New Life Into Commodities
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DB-Apr20,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington to update his thesis on commodities and interest rates as the U.S. economy continues to roar. Greer makes sense of a surging equity market that backed off today and argues that commodities will continue to perform in a “liquidity parade” set by a combination of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Greer analyzes falling yields and a falling dollar and connects the rise in financing costs to the slump in cannabis equities. Greer covers the resurgent bull markets in grain, iron ore, and oil, contending that monetary authorities are pouring “kerosene” on these assets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 21, 2021
Will Dogecoin's Eye-Popping Surge Test the Fed's Resolve?
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DB-Apr19,2021: In the first segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and Jack Farley investigate the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as speculative fervor reaches a fever pitch in Dogecoin as well as the ultimate fate of the yield curve. Harrison and Farley look how Fed Funds futures indicate the implied probability of the future Fed Funds rate and explore whether the holding pattern in bonds can continue and where yields will go if they go back on the march. In the final segment, Farley speaks to Deep Knowledge Investing's Gary Brode, who shares his analysis of stocks such as Enova International Inc ($ENVA) and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co ($HMHC). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 19, 2021
Grantham's GMO: Twilight of Growth Stocks w/ Matt Kadnar )
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The Interview: In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar's investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio. Recorded on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 18, 2021
Uranium: "The Most Asymmetric Trade I've Seen In My Life" (w/ Lyn Alden and Marcelo Lopez)
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The Interview: Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio. Recorded on February 22, 2021. Key learnings: Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime. The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 17, 2021
Breaking Down "The Exponential Age: Crypto's Fast and Furious Rise"
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DB-Apr16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to discuss his Expert View, “The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise,” released today. Ash and Raoul will be contextualizing this piece for macro investors and more. Please visit this link to watch the video just by adding your email address. The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise, Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 16, 2021
The Bumpy Road to Reopening, Long-Term Supply Shortages, and Inflation ( w/ Jim Bianco)
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DB-Apr15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 16, 2021
Signs of Trouble in the Bank Earnings "Blowout"? Plus Coinbase's Debut ( w/ Chris Whalen)
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DB-Apr14,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, to make sense of the release of earnings from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Whalen explains why the eye-popping net income figures, which exceeded expectations, are largely due to booking released loan loss reserves as profits as well as trading revenues, which may not be sustainable. Whalen argues that quantitative easing has reduced banks’ earnings power by compressing their net income margins. Lastly, he and Farley discuss the ongoing role of the Federal Reserve as well as today’s direct listing of Coinbase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 14, 2021
Portfolio Construction: Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ( w/ Jeff Dorman, Joey Krug, Raoul Pal and Ari Paul )
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Crypto Wednesday: Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, Pantera Capital co-CIO Joey Krug, and BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul join Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss their three favorite sectors in crypto, portfolio construction outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how they view DeFi. Each of the guests describe what decentralized finance means to them, touching on the risks of investing outside of the top two coins by market capitalization. They explain their thoughts on some of the current emerging crypto sectors such as NFTs. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings: The crypto space is still young, and there are many new projects popping up all of the time. Investors should be very cautious about investing into newer projects in the space as smaller market cap projects tend to be increasingly risky with smaller size. For those that are interested in investigating further out the risk curve, DeFi and NFTs are the sectors most commonly mentioned in these discussions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 14, 2021
Inflation, Stock Options and Crypto Derivatives in a Vol-Suppressed World ( w/ Imran Lakha )
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DB-April13,2021: Imran Lakha of Options Insight joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to make sense of a market that is becoming calmer day-by-day as measured by implied as well as historical volatility. They discuss the halting of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution as well the release of the latest data on the Consumer Price Index, which, at a yearly change 2.6%, exceeded economist expectations of 2.5%. Lakha defines key terms and shares the mechanics of key options strategies such as collars (also known as “risk reversals” or “risk-ies”), straddles, and stock replacement. Lastly, Lakha shares tales from the burgeoning world of crypto derivatives, describing the rare “call skew” in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and explains why he, a two-decade veteran of the volatility markets, sees it as a tremendous opportunity. Lakha can be found on Twitter @options_insight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 14, 2021
A Chart-Filled Look at Banks, Inflation, and Treasury Volatility
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DB-Apr12,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley prepare viewers for a huge week in markets, giving insight on the series of major investment banks set to release their earnings later this week as well as the pivotal disclosure of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Farley explains why “base effects” are so important, and Wiethe breaks down the inflation readings into their components, using insights from his upcoming interview with oil analyst Warren Pies. Lastly, Farley and Wiethe take a chart-heavy look at everything from Treasury volatility to cannabis stocks to Ecuadorean bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 13, 2021
Market Outlook for 2021 in Charts ( w/ Peter Brandt )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Legendary chartist, Peter Brandt of Factor LLC, returns to Real Vision Live to run through his 2021 outlook for a handful of assets based on their technical setups. Together with Real Vision's Max Wiethe, Brandt will analyze the setups in US, Japanese, and Chinese equities. In addition to equities Brandt will also examine corn and other agricultural commodities, gold, bitcoin, US Treasurys, and currencies. Brandt will also take questions from the audience and provide his macro perspective after decades of successful trading. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 12, 2021
Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal)
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The Interview: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth. Recorded on February 11, 2021. Key learnings: Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk. He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 11, 2021
Are SPACs in a Bubble? ( w/ Mark Yusk )
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The Interview: What are SPACs? What role do they play in the current investment landscape? What opportunities do they offer investors? And, perhaps most importantly, are they in a bubble? Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer these questions and more. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the growth areas of the future—from online gaming and e-sports to electric vehicles and space exploration—and that SPACs present the path forward for early-stage companies to go public. Yusko traces the different stages in the SPAC capital formation process, which includes pre-IPO, private investment in public equity (PIPE), and post-merger, and he depicts the various opportunities they offer investors, noting that many stages offer bond-like risk but equity-like returns. Yusko describes his latest venture, the Morgan Creek and EXOS Launch SPAC Originated ETF, which seeks to deploy active management and long-term holding periods as a way to navigate a promising space that is nevertheless frothy like so many other pockets of the market. Recorded on February 10, 2021. Key learnings: Yusko explains that SPACs are just a regulatory wrapping—saying that SPACs are in a bubble is like saying hedge funds are in a bubble. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the companies of the future and that, due to the dispersion between different SPACs, active management and diversification is the best way for investors to play the space. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 10, 2021
Update from Raoul on the Dollar, Rates, Growth, and Crypto.
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DB-April9,2021: Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a market in flux and share opportunities on his radar. Raoul updates his macro views on the dollar, interest rates, and economic growth before he discusses new developments in the crypto world such as the IPO of Coinbase as well as the U.S. listing of Galaxy Digital. Raoul also shares his latest views on ARK Innovation ETFs as part of his belief in durable secular trends driven by technology that abide by Metcalfe’s Law. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 10, 2021
Buyer Beware: Are Markets Set Up for a Pullback?
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DB-Apr8,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his insights on the inflationary pressures and drawdown risks he’s observing. Boockvar discusses his take on why weekly jobless claims in the U.S. continue to be high while job openings are also at record highs, highlighting how enhanced unemployment benefits may be competing with wages and how this puts inflationary pressure on labor. He also analyzes Jamie Dimon’s statement of the economic boom running all the way into 2023 and points out that another leg up in rates, a potential tapering by the Fed, and the end of large-scale fiscal spending could all prove to upend that notion. Harrison and Boockvar also explore the potential influence that supply chain disruptions could have on earnings, a corporate tax grab under Biden, and the impact of high margin debt on markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 09, 2021
The Roaring Twenties:Inflation, Equity Melt-Ups, and Extreme Bond Pain ( w/ Jared Dillian )
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DB- Apr7,2021: Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how America’s red-hot economy is precipitating wage inflation alongside monetary and fiscal stimulus, worth trillions of dollars, which shows no sign of slowing. Dillian argues that this booming reflationary environment will be hostile to bonds but could lead to a “melt-up” in U.S. equity indexes as value stocks surge and growth stocks remain at hold their own. Lastly, Dillian and Farley cover gold, retail leverage, and the Federal Reserve’s release of its minutes from the FOMC’s meeting in March. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 09, 2021
Unfettered, Wide-Open Innovation ( w/ Andreas M. Antonopoulos )
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Crypto Wednesday: Author, coder, and educator Andreas M. Antonopoulos (aantonop.com) joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Bitcoin, layer 2 solutions, and the Wild West of crypto. Andreas describes Bitcoin as enabling trust across vast distances without coordination—trust without a central authority. He explains that Bitcoin allows you to trust in the system, without needing to trust the other person you are transacting with and without needing to even know who they are. Antonopoulos touches on the difficulty of scaling blockchains, mentioning that its design requires everyone to check everyone else's work in order to remain secure and decentralized. Layer 2 solutions, such as Lightning Network, have been built on top of Bitcoin to help it scale to magnitudes greater transactions per second while still retaining the security and decentralization characteristics. Antonopoulos explains that crypto has enabled innovation of financial services, no longer restricted by gatekeepers, and he observes that the fact that anyone is allowed to innovate without permission, without authorization, and without oversight has created a "Wild West" environment with many “snake oil salesmen." In light of this, he infers that this is why there is significant defensive skepticism regarding Bitcoin vs. other new projects in the space. Recorded on February 18, 2021. Key Learnings: Bitcoin engenders trust in its system as it does not require trust in a central authority to coordinate transactions, even across considerable distance. The problem it currently faces is scalability. In order to resolve that without compromise, Layer 2 solutions help blockchains scale while attempting to retain similar levels of decentralization and security as the base chain. The permissionless nature of open source blockchains creates an environment ripe for "snake oil salesmen," and this is why many people who understand this have strong defensive skepticism of non-Bitcoin projects. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 07, 2021
Investor Sentiment Peaking, Coinbase Taking Off, and Archegos Imploding ( w/ Tommy Thornton )
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DB-April6, 2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss Coinbase, Archegos’s implosion, and the overall state of U.S. equities. After reviewing Coinbase’s earnings, Thornton discusses his bullishness on their upcoming direct listing, a gesture that he considers validating for the crypto space and will become the biggest deal of the year, and he shares his plans to buy in and how he’ll build the trade. Thornton also explores what he’s seeing in U.S. equities such as a FAANGs experiencing a rally and the S&P 500 displaying exhaustion signals as well as daily sentiment reaching 90%. In light of Archegos’s leveraged blow-out last week and its ripple effect on the market, he provides his perspective on what happened and why this is significant. Finally, Bennington and Thornton tackle the rise in Treasury yields and other various catalysts that currently lie dormant such as the vaccine rollout, the reopening of the economy, and the potential problems going forward for the labor market. For Our Listeners: For the special offer for Thornton’s research service, Hedge Fund Telemetry, use coupon code “stonks” here: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/checkout/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 06, 2021
Hedge Fund Strategies for Bonds, Equities, and Bitcoin ( w/ Troy Gayeski )
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DB-Apr5,2021: Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to break down how he thinks the rapidly changing economic and financial landscape is affecting his outlook for fixed-income, equities, and Bitcoin as well as hedge fund strategies such as long/short equities and convertible bond arbitrage. Gayeski argues that rising yields render much of the fixed-income world unattractive but that pockets of opportunity exist in structured credit, which is more immune to interest rate risk. He argues that Bitcoin is attractive to institutional allocators as a way to get exposure to central bank balance sheet expansion and explains why Bitcoin now comprises a double-digit percentage in SkyBridge’s portfolio. Gayeski also shares his views on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth, and interest rates as well as his take on the ongoing rotation from growth stocks into value equities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 06, 2021
White-Collar Crime Episode: Why White Collar Criminals Get Away With It( w/ Jesse Eisinger and Quinton Mathews )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Jim Chanos recently remarked that we are in a golden age of fraud, highlighting that companies trade unaffected by credible public accusations for years before it finally catches up to them. But even after the house cards collapses, the executives in charge of these companies often go unpunished and shareholders are left holding the bag. In America, this wasn’t always the case. Pulitzer prize winning author and senior reporter and editor at ProPublica, Jesse Eisinger, penned the definitive historical account of this devolution in his book "The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives" and in this first installment of a series of interviews focussed on white-collar crime and its affects on markets with Quinton Mathews, managing member of QKM, the pair reexamine this history to explore how we got from regulatory institutions dishing out multi-year sentences in the Enron scandal to almost no prison time or charges being filed against bank executives in the GFC and the potential actions needed to remedy this broken system. Recorded on October 14, 2020. Key Learnings: Eisinger and Mathews highlight the hollowing out of the regulatory bodies charged with investigating and prosecuting these crimes and the misaligned incentivizes for ambitious young attorneys as the biggest problems. They concluded that increased funding for regulators and diversity in hiring of prosecutors are some of the many changes need to improve the system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 05, 2021
A Rejection of the New "Roaring 20s" Recovery Narrative (w/David Rosenberg and Ed Harrison)
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The Interview: David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research Associates, believes that there will be a recovery—but not one nearly as robust as the market is currently pricing in. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Rosenberg argues that this is the result of a freshly increased debt overhang, lingering unemployment, and shifts towards saving and away from spending as a result of the psychological scarring of COVID. Rosenberg also outlines his investment ideas that result from this view, namely long bonds, gold, "utility-like growth", and emerging markets in Asia like China and India. Recorded on February 1, 2020. For Our Listeners: You can get a free 30-day trial to Rosenberg Research here: https://bit.ly/3pQ4nyB. Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 04, 2021
Growing Wealth in an Inflation Avalanche (w/Russell Napier and Stephen Clapham)
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The Interview: If central banks and governments unite to debase their money and depreciate their currency, will the long-awaited inflation finally arrive? And if it does, how can investors position themselves to not only protect their portfolio—but in fact grow their wealth—in this inflationary environment? Russell Napier, preeminent investment strategist, joins Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet to answer these two critical questions. Napier makes his case for why inflation is indeed on the horizon, discussing everything from rent controls and yield curve capping to credit rationing and pricing power, and then he and Clapham explore the various investments that have a favorable risk/reward profile should Napier's thesis prove correct. Recorded on February 4, 2021 Key learnings: Napier sees favorable opportunities in companies that can secure easy debt financing, value stocks whose pricing power varies with inflation, and countries with low debt-to-GDP ratios such as Singapore. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 03, 2021
Labor Market Strength Catches the Bond Market Off-Guard as Ethereum Soars
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DB-Apr2,2021: Real Vision senior and crypto editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley to the Daily Briefing. They discuss the Nonfarm Payrolls data, which significantly exceeded expectations, and interpret what this means for the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. They look at the corresponding sell-off in U.S. Treasurys today and the surge in S&P 500 futures (the U.S. stock market is officially closed). Lastly, they cover the surge in Ethereum and altcoins. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 03, 2021
Twilight of the 60/40 Portfolio: Boomers, Bonds, and Bitcoin
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DB-Apr1,2021: Tyler Neville, senior editor at Blockworks, and Real Vision’s Jack Farley briefly look at the S&P 500’s breach beyond 4000 as bond yields retreat and the dollar marches higher. Tyler also interprets recent currency volatility, examining the U.S. dollar’s recent strength against the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Yuan. Tyler and Jack then turn to the bond market, analyzing how rising yields have taken down an otherwise triumphant credit market. Tyler notes that the 60/40 is severely weakened by ultra-low yields and argues that Bitcoin could be a serious replacement to bonds. Jack and Tyler discuss other assets within crypto such as non-fungible tokens and assets within decentralized finance (DeFi) before taking another look at the Archegos liquidation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Apr 02, 2021
Archegos Unwinds as S&P 500 Flirts with 4000
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DB-Mar31,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura and Max Wiethe to the Daily Briefing. After briefly analyzing the day’s price action (U.S. equities surged as Treasury yields rose), they analyze the forced liquidation of Archegos Capital. Weston provides insight into the mechanics of the over-the-counter derivatives that were involved in the blow-up as well as big banks such as Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Credit Suisse that were prime brokerages to Archegos Capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 31, 2021
Dan Tapiero: Three Key Crypto Investment Categories
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Crypto Wednesday: Dan Tapiero, founder and managing partner of 10T Holdings, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss some of the crypto investment sectors he is interested in, including blockchain infrastructure, on-ramps, and next generation financial services. Taperio explains his approach to investing in the space and why he is looking to invest in what he considers to be mid-sized, crypto companies worth over 400 million dollars. He explores the benefits of investing into crypto on-ramps such as crypto exchanges and lending and borrowing, pointing out that even when crypto prices are going down, on-ramp type investments still perform. Tapiero believes that investing in blockchain infrastructure, such as bridges from traditional finance to crypto, is a way to get upside exposure to the asset class without necessarily needing to purchase the crypto assets themselves. Recorded on February 17, 2021. Key Learnings: There are many different ways to approach investing in the crypto space. Tapiero takes the traditional investor approach, primarily investing in businesses rather than holding the crypto assets themselves, and he describes his approach as a "picks and shovels" style investment strategy. This enables the investor to benefit from exposure to the asset class while also reducing the downside risk that comes with holding the tokens themselves. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 31, 2021
Archegos's Leveraged Blow-Up: Danger Under the Hood?
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DB-Mar30,2021: What does the leveraged blow-up of Archegos Capital Management mean for risk assets? Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer this question and update his outlook on stocks, bonds, housing, the U.S. Dollar, and gold as the bond rout shows little sign of stopping. Tony notes that the forced liquidation of Archegos ceased to impair stocks today—for now, at least—but remains as a potential sign that there is some market danger underneath the hood. Tony cites this as a reason why, on the margin, he is moving somewhat into cash and gold and out of stocks. Tony makes sense of the action in Treasury yields and tells Ash why he thinks the U.S. Dollar has been driving higher, especially against the yen. Tony speculates as to why commodities have proved resilient in the face of this dollar strength, which is normally a headwind. Lastly, Ash tells Tony about his evolving journey in the crypto world from a fan’s creation of Ash’s very own non-fungible token (NFT) to Ash’s experience buying Ethereum for the first time. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 31, 2021
Bitgo: Securing the World's Crypto (w/ Mike Belshe and Raoul Pal)
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Real Vision Crypto: Mike Belshe, co-founder and CEO of Bitgo, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Bitgo, tokenization, and the DeFi markets. Belshe describes Bitgo as a security and technology company, acting as custodian for approximately 18 blockchains and 300+ tokens. He explains the importance of the institutional component to adoption and how crucial secure custodians are for institutions to be able to fully enter the space. Belshe believes that DeFi is starting to show some incredible opportunities, and he mentions that there are already smart contracts operating at significant scale, automating away parts of traditional finance such as automated market makers. Belshe also mentions the value of token standards like ERC20 for building out the layers of crypto infrastructure. Standardization of various tokenization formats will accelerate the security and composability of the crypto space. Recorded on January 27, 2021. Key Learnings: Security is paramount when working with institutional level investments. In order for crypto to be an asset class accessible to all, a secure fiduciary custodian is necessary infrastructure. We are in the early stages of the infrastructure build out for the crypto space, and as the value of the assets grow, the level of security must also scale with it. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 30, 2021
How Sticky Will Inflation Be in 2021?
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DB-Mar29,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the next few months will be critical in determining how sticky rising inflation expectations will be. As the vaccination rollout progresses, albeit slowly in many countries, Boockvar explains that markets are continuing to look ahead to the reopening of the economy with fears of inflation constantly present. He sees that the pressures coming from increasing commodity, labor, and services costs could prove to have a lasting effect on inflation expectations in the months to come, and he says this could bolster the 10-year Treasury yield rising north of 2%. They also talk about how this may impact the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the Daily Briefing, Harrison welcomes Trevor Hall, host of the Mining Stock Daily Podcast, to discuss rising input and commodity costs and its overall effect on precious metals, industrials, and miners. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 29, 2021
Erik Norland and Harley Bassman on Fed Policy, Volatility, MMT and Inflation
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Real Vision Live Replay : Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group, joins Wall Street veteran Harley Bassman of The Convexity Maven to discuss the impact of Fed policy on volatility across a handful of assets since the pandemic and, more broadly, since the GFC. In addition to this discussion of potential unintended effects of Fed policy, they examine its failure to generate meaningful inflation in anything aside from financial assets. They also debate whether negative rates in the US are probable—or even possible—as well as why the dwindling monetary policy toolbox combined with political rhetoric seems to point towards MMT and a passing of the baton from monetary authorities to fiscal authorities at least as it relates to generating inflation. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings: The Fed’s monetary policy has had measurable effects on markets, especially in terms of reducing volatility but has not been successful in generating inflation. The shift from monetary to fiscal policy could be what finally ushers in the period of inflation many have been predicting. For our Listeners : Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 29, 2021
Mark Cuban: What the Fed-Driven Bubble Means for the Financial Establishment ( w/Raoul Pal )
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The Interview: Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street. Recorded on February 3, 2021 Key Learnings: Cuban follows the HODL ethos of cryptocurrency and shares what’s in his crypto portfolio: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, and more. When it comes to the public markets, he explains why Amazon and Netflix are among the big tech companies with the strongest AI capabilities and they’ve remained two of his biggest holdings for years. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 28, 2021
Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth
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Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Recorded on January 29, 2021 Key learnings: Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19. Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity, Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 27, 2021
The Battles in the Market: Big vs. Small, Stay-At-Home vs. Re-Opening
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DB-Mar26,2021: Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry gives Real Vision’s Jack Farley a much-needed update on the “battles” in the market between mega-cap stocks that dominate the S&P 500 and the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 that have been ripping for months. Thornton analyzes the internals of the market, using DeMARK indicators to gauge exhaustion, and he looks at breadth, moving averages, and volatility. Thornton shares with Farley his view on bonds and energy stocks as well as Tesla, the ARK Innovation ETF, and specific stocks that are on his radar. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 26, 2021
Priced for Perfection: Has the Reflation Trade Gone Too Far?
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DB-Mar25,2020. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes to the Daily Briefing Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist of PNC Financial Services Group, and Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Agati shares her view on U.S. equity valuations, noting that stocks might have run too far, too fast amid reflation optimism, and Chandler argues that market performance will ultimately hinge on liquidity conditions, making the long-term case for why the dollar could be approaching the end of its bull cycle as twin deficits weigh it down. Agati also highlights that there is much opportunity in both the debt and equity of emerging markets, noting serious composition changes with the various indices. Lastly, Agati and Chandler share their views on bonds and credit. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 26, 2021
Nasdaq Woes In A Re-Opening "Explosion"
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DB-Mar24,2021: In the main segment, Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he’s navigating the mercurial swings in stocks. Dillian argues that both the rotation from growth into value as well as the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys will likely continue as the U.S. economy re-opens and trillions of dollars worth of stimulus are on the table. Dillian shares with Farley his thoughts on reflationary sectors such as energy, airlines, and life insurance, and he also shares his evaluation of psychology within the Bitcoin market. In the final segment, Farley is joined by Huw Roberts, director of analytics at Quant Insight, who conducts data-driven analysis on how the gyrations in the Nasdaq 100 Index are driven by macro variables like interest rates, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and expectations for growth and inflation. For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 25, 2021
One Year Anniversary of the Market Bottom -- What Could Go Wrong?
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DB-Mar23,2021. Lily Francus, independent quantitative researcher, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share her outlook on narrative economics, the NOPE Index, and the dangers of beta. On the one-year anniversary of the bottom in the S&P 500, Francus notes that this current market environment is marked by a great deal of short covering and portfolio rebalancing, which drive the “rotation” trade away from growth into value that has been playing out. Francus explains how the surge of retail traders (or “low-information traders”) has driven flows and exerted a serious influence, particularly in the sky-high volume of options contracts. Francus connects this to her theory on NOPE (“net options pricing effect”) before sharing with Bennington her advice to traders in this choppy market. For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 24, 2021
Lyn Alden on Gold, Real Bond Yields, and the Treasury s Bloated War Chest
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DB- Mar22, 2021. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley to share her analysis on the prospects of U.S. Treasury bond yields, given the Federal Reserve’s decision to give exemptions to banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) expire, and its apparent aversion to yield curve control (YCC). Alden tells Farley that forthcoming headline inflation figures could appear higher than true inflation due to base effects, and explains the how the record-high Treasury’s General Account (TGA) will affect bond yields going forward. Alden explains why she expects yields to be the release valve of volatility rather than the dollar, and notes that heightened uncertainty over macro variables makes this environment a paradise for pickers of individual stocks. Lastly, Alden shares her bullish thesis on Adobe Inc ($ADBE) and her evolving views on non-fungible tokens (NFTs).  For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 22, 2021
The $17 Trillion Question (w/ Jim Grant )
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Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary environment.  Recorded on Dec 3, 2020. For Jim's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lBES10 For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 22, 2021
The SPAC Boom Apex, Market Memes, & the Biggest Opportunities in Tech (w/Josh Wolfe & Michael Green)
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The Interview. Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warner acquisition, signaling that the top is in. Wolfe and Green also discuss Wall Street Bets and the current meme driven market, Josh's prediction of an "Occupy the Fed" movement, and the biggest opportunities in tech that he and Lux Capital are invested in Recorded on January 28, 2021. Key Learnings: SPACs have a favorable structure that makes raising cash so easy that it will encourage rampant M&A, which will eventually result in the mega-deal, signaling the top of the market. Crypto and Wall Street Bets are emblematic of outrage that Josh Wolfe believes will result in an "Occupy the Fed" movement and retroactive regulation. At the moment, Josh Wolfe and Lux Capital are focused on the technology behind scientific advancement and the emerging space economy as their big bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 21, 2021
A Potential False Dawn : Banks, Oil, Tech, and Supplementary Leverage Ratios
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DB-Mar19,2021. Despite today’s head fake in bonds (yields surged but quickly retreated from their peaks), this Friday marks the seventh consecutive week in which the U.S. 10 year Treasury yield has risen. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to analyze how the continued sell-off in bonds is impacting bank stocks, tech equities, and the U.S. dollar. They explore how the Fed’s decision to let the SLR exemption expire will impact the bond market and banks. Ed updates viewers on Europe’s economic woes, and Jack gives a quick rundown of the wild gyrations in the oil market. The three also look at the rate hikes by the central banks of Turkey, Brazil, Norway, and Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 20, 2021
How Are Rising Yields Impacting Retirement Portfolios?
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DB- Mar18,2021. Ramsey Smith, founder and CEO of ALEX.fyi, returns to Real Vision to share with managing editor Ed Harrison his economic outlook and his views on how the advent of COVID-19 has changed retirement portfolio construction as well as the nature of the annuities business. Smith notes that rising rates is good for the life insurance business because it is, like banking, a business that depends heavily on spreads. Smith thinks that the liquidity coming from stimulus will be helpful to markets. Lastly, Smith and Harrison explore to what degree society will return to “normal” as the economy re-opens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 19, 2021
An Update from the Fed: Coming to the Rescue?
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DB-Mar 17,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech. Harrison and Farley interpret the Fed’s projections of GDP growth, inflation, as well as their “dot plot” of the future Federal Funds rate. Farley reviews the price action in bonds, gold, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100, and Harrison analyzes the challenges many European nations face as they attempt to vaccinate their population against COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 18, 2021
Opposing Views: Pomp & Mike Green on Bitcoin
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Crypto Wednesday: Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and is mainly controlled by entities that are oppositional to the United States. Green believes that Bitcoin is the perfect example of markets indicating that something is incredibly successful, even when in actuality it is failing (or will fail), and that its price appreciation does mean that it is a robust system. Filmed on February 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Pompliano believes that there are many non-trivial indicators that suggest Bitcoin is robust and becoming widely adopted including the number of wallets, transactions, and hash rate. He believes there is a significant chance that Bitcoin will be adopted by a significant amount of the S&P 500 companies and nation-states. On the other hand, Green thinks it is extremely unlikely to see major adoption from the largest companies and nation-states, explaining that this could even harm the U.S. He believes that Bitcoin can be trivially attacked and taken down by a nation-state and that the system is not as secure as many people claim it to be. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 17, 2021
Greer on His Bullishness: "It's a Difficult Tape to Fade" ( w/ Tony Greer )
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DB-Mar16,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his thoughts on how the gyrations in the bond market are affecting risk assets. With the market leaning toward a more inflationary regime, Greer charts his way higher for equities as he sees growth pick up and a cyclical rotation out of tech and into natural resource stocks. Bennington and Greer briefly interpret today’s negative print in retail sales before moving on to the rise of non-fungible tokens, which they believe is creating a new form of value by allowing the authentication of digital art. Lastly, Greer shares his investment advice across all asset classes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 17, 2021
Europe's Vaccine Rejection, Airlines' Day in the Sun, and the Tesla "Technoking"
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DB-Mar15,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley interpret the day’s market news. Farley breaks down the bullish price action in U.S. airlines as TSA throughput picks up and Delta’s CEO hints at a brighter future. Harrison distills the market noise into three clear narratives: inflation vs. deflation, end of cycle vs. beginning of cycle, and institutional investors vs. retail investors. Harrison and Farley analyze the market impact of the stunning suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France, Italy, Germany, and many other European countries, and then they dive deeper into the plumbing of inflation breakevens, before remarking upon Tesla’s remarkable new names of its chief corporate officers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 16, 2021
Uranium: The Underappreciated Clean Energy Transition Trade - (w/ Adam Rodman and Arthur Hyde )
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Real Vision Live Replay: Segra Capital Management partner Arthur Hyde, CFA, and founder and portfolio manager Adam Rodman join Real Vision editor Max Wiethe to give an in-depth update on uranium. Hyde and Rodman provide a recap on the recent events in the sector and uranium's price movement, discuss why this is still a structurally undersupplied market, and share why interest in uranium is increasing. With the presence of COVID-19, they explain the risks that the pandemic poses to the uranium supply and that, despite these supply risks, the demand for nuclear power generation has remained resilient. They also dig into how existing and new nuclear energy will play a role in the secular global trend towards clean energy in light of China's, Japan's, and Korea's recent carbon neutrality pledges. Key Learnings: Hyde and Rodman explore how nuclear power is an underappreciated, yet critical player in the transition to clean energy, and the uranium sector only stands to benefit from this trend. Emphasizing that this transition will take years, they advise that investors should not be as preoccupied with uranium's price cycle—rather, it's more beneficial to focus on CapEx as a delayed CapEx cycle leads to sustained high prices in uranium. Recorded on 14 Dec , 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 15, 2021
The Macro "Endgame": Growth, Gold, Deflation, and the Dollar ( w/ Eric Basmajian )
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Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Recorded on January 26, 2021. Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper growth, ultimately leading to deflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 14, 2021
Deflation and Insolvency Risks: Gold and Bonds' Moment to Shine ( w/ Steven Van Metre )
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The Interview: Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial and Real Vision president Travis Kimmel discuss how bonds and gold perform during times of deflation and insolvency. After Kimmel shares his journey as an entrepreneur and a technologist to Real Vision’s president, he explains why he thinks insolvency poses a serious risk for the U.S. economy. He and Van Metre discuss why Treasury bonds perform so well during times of economic distress, comparing the performance of long Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500, as well as to gold and gold miners. After Van Metre explains why he believes quantitative easing is, in fact, deflationary, Kimmel describes the "greatest trades" he sees on the horizon. Recorded on January 21, 2021. Key learnings: The repayment of debt destroys dollars, so the overhang of tremendous debt loads and obligations (rents, corporate borrowing, etc.) will prove deflationary. In this scenario, Kimmel and Van Metre think bonds offer a favorable risk/reward. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 13, 2021
Yield Curve Control, Non-Fungible Tokens, and a Wobbling Equity Market
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DB-Mar12,2020.Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a bond market trying to regain its footing and a wobbling equity market vulnerable to an ignited dollar. Raoul argues that inflation is probably on the horizon but insists that it will be temporary cyclical, not secular. Raoul estimates that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to target maximum employment – even if that means inflation runs hot – makes yield curve control a potential outcome. Lastly, Raoul and Ash discuss the rejuvenated crypto market with most coins trading at or above their all-time highs as well as the red-hot market of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which they argue empower artists and musicians by granting them perpetual claim on their work and have the potential to create a new mechanism of digital value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 13, 2021
"If the Bond Market Has a Problem, Everyone Will Have a Problem"
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DB-Mar11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to the Daily Briefing to analyze the ongoing gyrations in the U.S Treasurys market and how their future path will impact almost every asset class. Harrison notes the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, and Boockvar and Bianco consider the halting of the rotation trade. Boockvar explains that inflation expectations will continue to vex the bond market while Bianco argues that a 10 year rate above 3% would be a serious problem for leveraged institutions. They investigate the effect of yields on the U.S. dollar, and Boockvar and Bianco share their ideal asset allocation in this unique investment environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 12, 2021
Corey Hoffstein: "Things Are Going to Stay Weird"
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DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 11, 2021
Polkadot: A Bet Against Maximalism(w/ Gavin Wood)
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Crypto Wednesday: Gavin Wood, co-founder of Polkadot and co-founder and CTO of Ethereum, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, to discuss Polkadot, Kusama, and the evolving crypto landscape. Wood explains that Polkadot was created to enable faster innovation in the blockchain space, reducing the amount of work necessary to start and secure a new blockchain and connect it to others. He describes Polkadot as a layer 0 technology, a meta protocol, that is more abstract and flexible than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Wood also talks about Kusama, which utilizes the same kind of technology as Polkadot but has a completely different development philosophy. Kusama is a faster iterating, more experimental chain that acts as a "canary network"—a real value, live chain that allows for rapid development of the technology. He describes Polkadot as a revolution in blockchain technology, not just an evolution. Recorded on January 21, 2021 Key Learnings: Polkadot enables faster innovation in blockchain technology by making it easier for people to build, secure, and connect blockchains. Kusama is a more experimental, faster iterating, blockchain utilizing similar technology as Polkadot. Wood believes that Polkadot is a bet against maximalism as he doesn't prescribe to the idea that there is a "best" blockchain or set of rules for a chain, but that different use cases require different types, and Polkadot enables this. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 10, 2021
Growth's Eye-Popping Snapback and the $86 Billion Pension Bailout
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DB-Mar10,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to process the astonishing resistance rally in technology and growth stocks with high duration such as Tesla ($TSLA), Peloton ($PTON), DocuSign ($DOCU) and Zoom Video ($ZM). Jack notes that Tesla posted the 3rd biggest daily return in the history of the company, and Ed interprets the pause in the U.S. Treasury sell-off as gold staged a recovery and oil and copper lost the bid. The pair analyze the inclusion in the latest U.S. stimulus package of $86 billion worth of relief for failing pensions, and Ed shares why this bailout might prove a dangerous precedent. Lastly, Ed and Jack analyze the latest data showing that retail comprised a plurality of volume in the U.S. equity market as well as what the most frequented pages on RobinHood indicate about the rise of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 10, 2021
If Duration Is In A Bubble, Where Can Investors Hide?
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DB-Mar8, 2021. As treasury yields continued their ascent today, big tech stocks such as Alphabet Inc ($GOOGL) and Apple Inc ($AAPL) joined growthy darlings such as Tesla, Zoom, and Peloton in today’s sell-off with the NASDAQ 100 closing today down 11% from its highs. Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Tyler Neville, senior editor of Blockworks, to break down the ongoing rout from growth stocks. Neville shares how he thinks this “bubble in duration” will end, where he sees opportunity in going short GameStop puts, and why he remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 09, 2021
White Collar Crime Part 3 -- Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow on the Problem of "Legal Fraud"
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Real Vision Live Replay. Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow is infamous for his role in Enron's collapse; however, since serving his time and reflecting on his actions, he has turned over a new leaf, speaking about ethics and the problem of "legal fraud". In this interview with Quinton Mathews, managing member at QKM, Fastow argues that the biggest problem is the incredible number of loopholes that exist, allowing executives like himself to mislead and misrepresent without ever breaking a specific law and even having these misleading statements signed off on by corporate lawyers and auditors. Using poignant examples from Enron and other companies, Fastow highlights many of these loopholes and makes the case that closing them alone could not prevent the problem. Since leaving prison, Fastow has also began investing in a potential solution—Keen Corp's natural language processing software, which he believes if implemented could help corporations to avert white collar crime and detect problems in their ranks before gaining too much momentum. Andy Fastow can be contacted at FormerEnronCFO@gmail.com and KeenCorp can be contacted at NorthAmerica@KeenCorp.com. Recorded on December 16, 2020. Key Learnings: "Fraud" is not always a question of breaking a specific law, and there will always be routes for executives to "legally" mislead and misrepresent. Investors conducting fundamental analysis must be cognizant of this and do their homework when examining financial statements. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 08, 2021
The Cannabis Trade: An Industry Set to Take Off (w/ Jason Wild and Tony Greer)
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The Interview. Jason Wild, founder of JW Asset Management, sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, to discuss his career journey from pharmacist to investor with a firm that oversees $1 billion through a mix of investments in pharmaceuticals and cannabis producers. Wild’s early success came from assembling Arbor Pharmaceuticals and later selling it to KKR in 2014 for a large profit. He used the proceeds to invest in major Canadian cannabis companies, and he has since become one of the first U.S. institutional investors in legal cannabis companies. Today he is building the global cannabis company TerrAscend, where he is Chairman. Recorded January 14, 2021 Key Learnings: Wild identifies the top cannabis stocks to invest in and why he focuses on operating in limited-license states where there is less competition. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped drive investor demand in the cannabis industry and states and voters are finally realizing that cannabis legalization is a solution to help revive the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 07, 2021
Society's Disenfranchisement & the Connection Between the Law, Money, and Corporatism (w/Mike Green)
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The Interview: How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. . Recorded on January 13, 2021 Key Learnings: Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 06, 2021
Hidden Credit Risk, Jobs, and the Sudden "De-Frothing" Reversal
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DB-March5, 2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of today’s confounding price action. Growthy names plummeted alongside re-opening stocks like cruise lines and airlines, only for a sudden risk reversal to take place midday for all U.S. stock indexes to end the day deep in the green. Harrison and Bennington analyze today’s non-farm payroll numbers, which showed strength in the labor market concentrated in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sector. After the three explore how rising bond yields impact credit spreads and credit risk, Harrison investigates whether the rotation away from growth and into value and re-opening stocks will be a lasting trend. Farley provides data concerning SPACs, showing that the number of special purpose acquisition vehicles trading below $10 has steadily rose and why this could be another sign of the fragility of growth stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 06, 2021
Bonds Bite Back: How and When Will the Fed Respond?
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DB-Mar4,2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s volatile price action in bonds and high beta stocks. Boockvar explains that Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments earlier in the day triggered another sell-off in bonds as the market, emphasizing their fear of inflationary pressures to come in 2021, pushed back on the Fed for staying the course. Harrison and Boockvar explore a few different scenarios where the Fed could begin to move against the rise in rates including ramping up their bond buying programs and implementing yield curve control. They also examine the consequences of these actions and the possibility that the Fed will refrain from intervening until markets begin to break. Finally, Boockvar discusses equities, considering the potential winners and losers in this environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 05, 2021
Bonds, Commodities, and the Fed's Moment of Truth
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DB, Mar3, 2021: In the first segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy shares with Real Vision editor Jack Farley her thoughts on how the ongoing rout in U.S. Treasurys will amplify the rotation away from growth stocks and into cyclical stocks. Alden opines on how the Federal Reserve could aim to reassert control over the bond market, whether it be “Operation Twist” or yield curve control. In the second and final segment, Farley welcomes Howard Klein, founder and partner at RK Equity, to give a strategic update of key parts of the mining sector such as graphite, nickel, and, most notably, lithium. Klein shares news on lithium miners such as Albemarle Corp ($ALB), Livent Corp ($LTHM), and Piedmont Lithium ($PLL), to which Klein is an advisor and is also up over 1000% since September 1, 2020. Klein explains why he thinks we are at the beginning of a commodity bull market and shares his views on MP Materials ($MP) and Nouveau Monde Graphite ($NMGRF). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 03, 2021
Transitioning From Analog to Digital Finance (w/ Erik Voorhees)
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Crypto Wednesday. Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of Shapeshift.io, joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss Shapeshift, the transition to a digital currency world, and some of the most exciting projects in crypto. Voorhees shares that Shapeshift was created when he realized that, for the industry to grow, people needed an easy way to swap between digital assets. He believes that society is actively transitioning from an analog fiat system of finance to a digital currency and blockchain one, and he has worked to support this transition with Shapeshift. Voorhees thinks that decentralized exchanges like Uniswap are some of the most important projects being built in crypto today, explaining that it’s critical to be able to trade in a decentralized and permissionless way. Key Learnings: The crypto ecosystem is still very young, but society is actively transitioning its financial systems to it. In order for this transition to happen fully, the sector needs to develop permissionless and decentralized infrastructure such as decentralized exchanges. These noncustodial exchanges are valuable to the security and permissionless nature of the system as a whole. Recorded on Jan 20, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 03, 2021
A New Yield Regime: Commodity-Led Rally in the Making (w/ Tony Greer )
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DB-Mar02,2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro where he declares that the five sigma sell-off in Treasuries last week marks the beginning of a new yield regime that will support a resources-led rally in earnest. Greer points to the dramatic move in rates being a response to visible commodity inflation, which is indicative of its strength. Because Greer sees a resources-led rally emerging, he explains why this is bad news for the tech sector over the next few months. After walking through the signals that are telling Greer that “this time is different,” he discusses how he’s positioning himself and what he’s eyeing in light of these changing market dynamics that continue to escalate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 03, 2021
Bond Vigilantes Grumble as Bitcoin and Equities Recover( w/ Raoul Pal & Ed Harrison )
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DB-Mar1,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is hosted by editor Jack Farley to break down the continued breakout in Treasury bonds as the S&P 500 posts its best day since June. Ed and Jack investigate last week’s carnage at the “belly” of the yield curve, the interest rate risk that long-duration bonds are exposed to, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s ramping up of its QE bond purchases in order to appease the “bond vigilantes” and keep rates pinned. Later, Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins the show, and he shares his outlook on the risks that rising yields pose to markets as well as the dramatic rebound in the crypto markets. Raoul updates his views on commodities and emerging markets, sharing his key learnings from his interview with Jim Rogers, which aired today on Real Vision. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 02, 2021
A Lighthouse Amid the Fog( w/ Danielle DiMartino Booth & Raoul Pal )
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Real Vision Live Replay. Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, to forecast future economic growth and and the fate of fiscal stimulus going forward. With volatility rising and the recovery on ever shakier ground, DiMartino Booth clarifies the macro picture by looking at price action in the bond markets. Pal and DiMartino Booth will exchange their views on how markets will respond to these possibilities and explore the various potential paths that the economic recovery could take. DiMartino Booth will also be answering questions from Real Vision Plus members. Recorded on Oct 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Mar 01, 2021
Carly Fiorina: Big Tech Has Unprecedented Economic Power
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The Interview. Recorded on Jan 11, 2021. Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 28, 2021
Iran: Investing in One of the Best-Performing Stock Markets (w/ Raoul Pal & Maciej Wojtal)
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The Interview- Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions. Recorded on Jan 12, 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 27, 2021
Will Rising Interest Rates Change The Game?
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DB-Feb26,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a deep-dive on how rapidly rising interest rates are transforming the financial landscape before our very eyes. Ed and Ash analyze the latest economic data on rising personal income and share their views on the proposed $15 minimum wage that failed to make it into the stimulus bill. Jack and Ash review price action in stocks and commodities and explain how interest rates are like a financial gravity of sorts. Jack and Ed talk about how rising rates are creating tremendous change within the fixed income market. Lastly, the three discuss ARK Innovation ETF and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s falling below net asset value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 27, 2021
Stocks Follow Bonds Into the Slaughterhouse
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DB-Feb25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to the Daily Briefing to make sense of the massive rout in long-dated Treasury bonds that is perturbing every aspect of the market—from high-flying growth names like Tesla to gold to Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Bianco connects bond market indigestion to that lingering question around inflation, and hazards that industrials and financials will fare the best on a relative basis. Bianco and Harrison look at the Fed Fund futures, which indicate that the market is pricing in a rate hike. They also discuss the outflows out of the series of ARK innovation ETFs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 26, 2021
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
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DB-Feb24,2021: Has speculative mania reached a fever pitch? Will rising Treasury yields drag high-flying growth stocks back to the ground? Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to the Daily Briefing to explore these questions and explain how he is navigating these frothy, choppy markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on everything from his bullishness on commercial real estate and energy stocks to his concerns about liquidity mismatches in Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. Dillian explains to Farley why he is long puts on "growthy" tech names like Tesla and Facebook and notes why he remains very constructive on gold and precious metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 25, 2021
Driving Transaction Costs Down to Zero ( w/ Jeremy Allaire & Raoul Pal)
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Crypto Wednesday: Circle co-founder, chairman, and CEO Jeremy Allaire joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss stable coins, regulation, and the problems that Circle is working to solve. Allaire explains that Circle was created to improve the way traditional money, or fiat, was transacted. This vision led the company to helping build out USDC, a fully backed stable coin. Allaire believes that once there is a fiat digital currency model on public networks, this would drive the cost of transacting value close to zero. He also states that regulation of the crypto space implies acceptance from governments and institutions and that this is a good sign for crypto. Filmed on January 14, 2021. Key Learnings: Transacting in the traditional banking system is expensive and slow compared to the new crypto payment and settlement rails. Fiat digital currencies can assist in dramatically reducing the cost of value transactions and can grow the utility of crypto networks dramatically. Consequently, a secure fiat digital currency can encourage governments and institutions adopt crypto networks. Recorded on Jan 14, 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 24, 2021
NASDAQ Goes Haywire as Powell Doubles Down
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DB-Feb23,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning’s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 24, 2021
Brazilian Markets Crash and Energy Shines as Yields Break Higher
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DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today’s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today’s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow’s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 23, 2021
Challenging the Mainstream COVID-19 Lockdown Narrative (w/Mike Green, Nick Hudson & Russel Lamberti)
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The Interview, Recorded on January 4, 2021In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 21, 2021
"Is Everything a Bubble?" Wrap-Up - Highlights and Takeaways for Today's Markets
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Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal . Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision’s campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?” and explore how these various interviews all connect to what’s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 20, 2021
Junk Yields Rising, Bitcoin Sniffing Out Yield Curve Control, and GameStop's Hearings
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DB-Feb18,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tyler Neville of Blockworks back to the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on everything from implied volatility in the credit markets to the ongoing congressional hearings on GameStop’s remarkable rise and fall. Reporting from Austin, Texas, Neville shares his experience amid the ongoing arctic frost that is depriving so many Texans of electricity, heat, and running water as well as disrupting U.S. oil production by over 40%. Neville then shares with Harrison his analysis on lumber and homebuilding stocks and explores whether this crisis will cause secular inflation. Harrison and Neville then turn their gaze to the rising yields of U.S. Treasurys, which Neville thinks could be a wrecking ball for all risk assets. However, Neville argues that the Federal Reserve will enact yield curve control, and it is this possibility which Bitcoin and crypto investors have already “sniffed out.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 19, 2021
VIX Dislocations, Hendry's Take on TLT, and Buffett's Sale of $GOLD
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DB-Feb18,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe start the Daily Briefing by breaking down the latest stories, ranging from rolling blackouts in Texas to the congressional hearing surrounding GameStop to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest maneuvers. Then, Jack welcomes Eclectica Asset Management founder and former-CIO Hugh Hendry, who tells him about the interplay between real yields, gold, and silver as well as giving Real Vision a sneak peek of his short film, “An Intense Psychotic Cacophony.” Lastly, Jack speaks to Real Vision's Weston Nakamura about a dislocation Weston has noticed in the VIX futures market. For the latest edition of “Inside the Hive Mind,” click here: http://rvtv.io/HiveReportFeb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 18, 2021
Tony Greer: "Commodity Inflation Is Happening Before Our Eyes"
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DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets—not cash. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 17, 2021
The Real Mechanics of Monetary Policy & Financial Plumbing (w/ Caitlin Long and Dr. Manmohan Singh)
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The Interview, Recorded on December 7, 2020: If you are one of the few who have studied the mechanics of monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system, most of what you learned may be out of date—that is, if you haven’t done so in the last five years. In this interview with Caitlin Long, CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group, Dr. Manmohan Singh of the IMF explains the massive changes that have come about in the past decade and tries to dispel some of the preconceived notions many have about this complex system. In addition to this focus on the true mechanics of the current system, they also discuss the difficulty of trying to make sense of such an opaque and interconnected global system where laws and data reporting are not uniform from country to country. Moreover, Long and Singh zoom in on the tsunami of change that could be brought about by the growth of digital assets both inside and outside of the traditional financial system, and they highlight the intense focus on these developments by the private banking sector and bodies like the IMF. . Viewers can find more of Dr. Singh's work here: https://www.risk.net/collateral-markets-and-financial-plumbing-3rd-edition and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Manmohan++Singh&name=Manmohan%20%20Singh Key Learnings: The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 13, 2021
Bumble's IPO, The Yield Curve Migration, and a "Bubble" in Passive Investing?
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley to break down recent price action and inspect current market conditions. They analyze the remarkable soaring of Bumble’s stock price after its initial public offering (IPO) with Ash and Ed exploring whether the ongoing market ebullience is evocative of 1999. Ed and Jack then discuss how rising yields for U.S. Treasurys affect banks earnings, the price of earnings, and investor behavior in the credit markets. After the three of them briefly explain how the rise of passive investing is impacting market flows, Ash shares his thoughts on the first publicly traded Bitcoin ETF in North America. Ash, Ed, and Jack relate these topics to recent “Is Everything a Bubble?” interviews with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Lyn Alden, and Russell Napier, and they look forward to next week’s interviews with Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Felix Zulauf, and Mark Yusko. If you are not a member and you want access to these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/l/is-everything-a-bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 12, 2021
Waiting for Inflation, SPACmania, and Dislocations in the Cannabis Bull Market
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DB:Feb 10,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley delve into what Fed Chair Powell’s remarks indicate about the future of monetary policy and the economy. Max catalogs the rally in cannabis equities and notes that the bulk of the euphoria seems to be located in Canadian pot stocks, which may not be as favorable as their U.S. counterparts. After noting the tremendous volatility in MicroStrategy Incorporated ($MSTR), Jack and Max interpret what today’s reading for the Consumer Price Index, which fell slightly below expectations, means for reflation trades such as banks and energy. They close by giving a sneak peek of upcoming interviews with Julian Brigden, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Lyn Alden as part of the “Is Everything a Bubble?” series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 10, 2021
The Triggers for a Bond Bubble Pop Are Now in Motion
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DB:Feb 9, 2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the oil market rally, signals of incoming inflation and the central bank response to it, and the drop in junk bond yields. Boockvar observes how oil is the last of the major commodities to join the rally as demand starts to catch up and the supply is demonstrating greater discipline, bringing markets into a full commodity rally. Boockvar then zooms out and breaks down the inflationary signals he’s witnessing and expresses his concern about whether an increase in consumer services will contribute to or relieve inflationary pressure. With junk bond yields dropping, Boockvar also explains how this may be due to more investors being pushed out onto the risk spectrum as investment-grade bonds are being perceived to have a Fed backstop. He points out the ever-growing bubble in bond markets and speculates that now is the first time in years where the true triggers for that bubble popping are in motion. He shares what retail investors should be watching out for, how QE has batted away the worst effects of bear markets, what drives the capital flight into the U.S., why the ECB's and BOJ's policies have in reality been more restrictive, and whether the Fed will ultimately have to implement yield curve control. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 09, 2021
Tesla's Bitcoin Wager, Rising Yields, and Ed's Take on the Banks
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DB-Feb7, 2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley discuss Tesla’s decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as a reserve asset on its balance sheet. They then analyze the how rising yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasurys will impact growth stocks as well as bank net interest margins. Using bank profitability as a jumping off point, Jack notes that the S&P 500 Financials Sector SPDR ($XLF) is at all-time highs, and Ed analyzes why this could be the case, sharing his outlook on the future of the U.S. banking industry. Lastly, Jack and Ed give a sneak peek of the interviews coming up for the “Is Everything a Bubble?” campaign with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Mark Cuban, Felix Zulauf, Lyn Alden, Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Mark Yusko, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Steve Clapham, and many other investors. To share your thoughts about “Is Everything a Bubble?” on the Real Vision exchange, click here: http://rvtv.io/3ju1T6q. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 08, 2021
Marc Cohodes: "The Stock Market is Not A Game"
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The Interview, recorded on February 1, 2021 .In this interview with Jason Buck of The Mutiny Fund, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes of Alder Lane Farm pulls no punches as he diagnoses the true culprits behind the exponential volatility in stocks such as GameStop: extreme leverage and the hedge funds who use it in order to juice returns. Cohodes argues that hedge funds like Point72 and Melvin Capital are creating significant systemic risk for all market participants, most notably themselves, and he congratulates the retail trades on r/WallStreetBets but warns them that, generally, buying a stock merely because it has high short interest is a very bad idea. He closes by sharing with Buck his personal journey during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Key learnings: The stock market is not a game – it is a serious thing for serious people. The reckless use of leverage ought to be constrained by regulators, and all investors, institutional as well as retail, should be prepared to lose if they are wrong. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 07, 2021
Japanese Stocks: The Ultimate Undervalued Investment Opportunity (w/ Andrew McDermott & David Salem)
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The Interview: Recorded on December 14, 2020. David Salem, managing partner of Windhorse Capital Management, welcomes Andrew McDermott, president of Mission Value Partners, an investment firm that invests almost exclusively in Japanese equities. McDermott argues that Japan is a hidden repository of balance sheet strength, and he and Salem discuss why Japan's business leaders seem not to exhibit the same bad habits that have ruined so many previously-great American companies, such as Intel and GE. McDermott breaks down his analysis of specific companies such as Hitachi, Sazaby, and Daiichikosho Co., and then he tells Salem about the time Warren Buffett called him to seek out his knowledge and advice on investing in Japan. McDermott and Salem also reflect on macroeconomic factors such as demographics and Japan's government debt burden. Key Learnings: Japanese equities are one of the least-loved and arguably most misunderstood asset classes in the world. But they offer opportunity to the thoughtful investor, as the management of Japanese companies are more prudent and sensible with their allocation of capital. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 06, 2021
Raoul Pal on Bubbles, Short Squeezes, and Systemic Market Risk.
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Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share how his market framework is evolving. First, Raoul and Ash provide a sneak-peek into Real Vision’s upcoming campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?”, where Real Vision will be featuring high-profile investors such as Lacy Hunt, Felix Zulauf, Mark Cuban, Lyn Alden, Howard Marks, and Joel Greenblatt. Raoul describes the current market environment, stating that investors are record long equities, dealers are record long gamma, and the market, as a whole, is record short Treasury bonds. Raoul and Ash then discuss the outperformance of Ethereum and “altcoins” relative to Bitcoin. Lastly, Raoul shares his views on the speculative fervor in the equity market and compares the short squeeze in GameStop Corp ($GME) to the historic squeeze of German automaker Volkswagen. For the February edition of “Inside the Hive Mind” by Weston Nakamura and the Real Vision Exchange, click here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/inside-the-hive-mind-of-the-real-vision-exchange-feb-2021-issue-02-601d8ab41ab3070a37dcf1e3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 06, 2021
Legal Fraud vs. Intellectual Fraud: The Growing Challenges Activist Short Sellers Face
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Carson Block, CIO of Muddy Waters Capital LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the different forms that financial fraud can take in the corporate world, what happened with GameStop last week, and how changing market structure makes activist short selling increasingly more difficult. Block distinguishes between two types of fraud that corporations can commit—legal fraud and intellectual fraud—and explains how insidious and corrosive the latter type is for companies. Harrison and Block then consider why these companies committing intellectual fraud are not being held accountable and how that leads to decaying faith in public institutions. Block also provides his perspective on the short squeeze in GameStop from last week, exploring how initially a smart retail trade morphed into a different sort of animal. He touches on the financial plumbing occurring behind the scenes and whether it truly is efficient or not, and he shares how he sizes positions for shorts, the growing challenges activist short-sellers face, and his experience while investigating American Tower in 2013. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 05, 2021
The Mayor of Miami on Blockchain and Ben Hunt on COVID-19, the Fed, and How "Not To Be The Sucker At The Table"
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In the first segment, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal speaks to the mayor of Miami, Francis X. Suarez, about his plans to attract talent, jobs, capital, and “anchor tenants” to Miami as well as his embrace of blockchain technology. Mayor Suarez can be found on Twitter at @FrancisSuarez. In the main segment, senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory, about the ways in which the United States can better protect itself from the scourge of COVID-19. Hunt acknowledges that the variants of the virus might impair economic growth yet contends that asset markets might continue to prove resilient. Lastly, Hunt shares with Bennington his view on the run-up in SPACs as well as “meme stocks” such as GameStop ($GME). Bennington concludes by giving a sneak peek of tomorrow’s event, “Bitcoin in the Real World.” Join Real Vision and BlockFi on February 4 for a free one-day online event. RSVP at realvision.com/blockfi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 04, 2021
"Money Incineration" in Stonks, "Champagne and Caviar" for the S&P 500
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Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to give an overview of GameStop as $GME and other retail favorites such as $AMC and $BBBY continue to unwind. Tony and Ash discuss the market mechanics behind margin requirements and liquidity concerns with Tony pulling no punches as he discusses key actors such as Dave Portnoy. Tony then proceeds to provide a strategic update on his natural resources trade as crude oil hits a new high and its futures curve enters backwardation. Lastly, Tony shares with Ash his outlook on the FAANG stocks, cannabis, and the velocity of money. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 02, 2021
Is Silver "Next"? Plus an Update on Short Interest and Options Flow in GameStop
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DB-Feb1,2021: Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores how the Reddit mania is spreading from Gamestop to the precious metals market like silver and even SPACs. In the main segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison conducts a data-filled deep dive of the ongoing pressures in GameStop Corp ($GME), looking at factors such as the declining short interest to renewed activity in far out-of-the-money call options. Ed rejects the theory that silver will be the next hotspot of speculative activity and notes that natural gas was actually up more than silver today. Lastly, Ed and Jack discuss potential endgame scenarios for the speculative mania in distressed equities like GameStop, and Ed shares an update on COVID-19 variants. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 01, 2021
Demographics II: Tailwinds and Tenterhooks (w/ Amlan Roy & Raoul Pal)
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RealVision Live Replay, Recorded on September 14, 2020.Global macro investing is one of the most complex styles of allocating capital, as the data sets one has at their fingertips is just so large: non-farm payrolls, currency volatility, even high-frequency foot traffic. In this interview, Amlan Roy, head of global macro research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks to Real Vision CEO about how incorporating demographics within one's macro framework can help find the signal in the noise and give investors an edge. Roy discusses how demographic patterns map onto common macro data, such as growth rates, discount rates, savings rates, as well as interest rates, the ultimate macro statistic. This is the second installment in Raoul's multi-part exploration into how demographics affects global economics and finance.. For Raoul's first interview with chief investment officer Fredrik Nerbrand, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-big-picture/videos/demographics-i-pensions-in-crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Feb 01, 2021
Investment Ideas for a Hard Winter in the Real Economy (w/ Ed Harrison and Gary Shilling)
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The Interview: Recorded on Dec 4 , 2020: With cases spiking and economic data surrounding the recovery slowing or outright rolling over in many cases, it appears as though a hard winter is in store for the global economy. Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., is well known for having forecasted these types of downturns in the past and, along with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, discusses why he thinks we are in store for another economic downturn this winter. Shilling highlights real economic data like slowing job gains, increased COVID-19 deaths, and the potential for renewed economic shutdowns, but he cautions that the strange correlation, where bad news equals more stimulus and thus is bullish for equities, can draw out irrationality longer than investors might expect — even if stimulus fails to fully replace economic losses in the long-term. Shilling and Harrison also discuss his investment ideas that arise from this forecast: cautiously short equities, short dollar, and long treasuries. Key Learnings: The real economy and market are once again moving in the opposite direction. Shilling argues that this disconnect will close and that the long bond may be the best way to play to it. He also sees the stimulus feedback loop as putting more downward pressure on the dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 31, 2021
The Future of SaaS Investing, Machine Learning, & Data Privacy (w/ Raoul Pal & Gordon Ritter)
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The Interview. Recorded on Nov5,2020 : Cloud investor Gordon Ritter, founder of Emergence Capital, one of the first venture capital firms to invest exclusively in software-as-a-service, or SaaS, manages portfolio companies that have a market cap of $400B+ and 13 IPOs or exits greater than $500 million, including high-profile exits like Zoom and Salesforce. He joins Real Vision founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, for a conversation about the evolution of the software sector, how fast the SaaS investing market is today, the future of machine learning, the challenges ahead in data privacy, and the digitization of education. Filmed November 5, 2020. Key Learnings: The premise of SaaS is that a piece of software is hosted on a cloud infrastructure (operated through a web browser), and businesses pay a monthly fee to get access to this software. Investors in SaaS companies have reaped huge benefits, and the widespread adoption of SaaS platforms across business and personal applications doesn't appear to be slowing down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 30, 2021
The GameStop Gamma Wall Breaks Down as Virus Variants Ring Alarm Bells (w/ Real Vision Editorial)
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DB-Jan29,2021: In the intro, Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington speaks to Lily Francus, derivatives trader and PhD candidate in Bioinformatics at the University of California San Diego, about the unique market mechanics that have characterized the run in GameStop Corp ($GME). In the main segment, Ash welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to debate whether the Robinhood ban on trading is unfair and if it reveals unseen holes in the functioning of capital markets. Jack provides data on options flow in $GME, and the three explore whether the wall of gamma will break down or get even higher, agreeing that Monday will be a turning point as this is when $GME calls with higher strike prices could get written (and can be bought by retail traders). Ash and Ed discuss how susceptible the various COVID-19 variants are to the vaccines and how their ominous spread will impact the reflation trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 30, 2021
Robinhood on Shaky Ground and Potential Market Destabilization to Come( w/ Dave Floyd )
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DB-Jan28,2021: Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about the newest developments in the GameStop story and the market implications of elevated activity in options trading. Floyd expresses his concern over the restricted buying over GameStop and other equities experiencing similar price action that occurred today, stating that it’s bizarre and ludicrous to mandate how traders allocate their capital, which cuts to the core of ongoing social issues. However, he explains that the anger arising from these circumstances is misdirected as the market environment and price discovery has continuously been muddled by regulations and monetary policy. Harrison and Floyd move on to discuss the equity market at large, and he explains that the record number of call options being purchased and puts being sold at open can introduce a destabilizing effect on markets. In light of this high implied volatility, he then expounds on how this impacts futures, the dollar, and time horizons, and what trades he has his eye on now. Jack Farley breaks down the saga of GameStop Corp ($GME) and how forced buying is turning into forced selling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 28, 2021
The Robinhood Revolt as an Expression of the Fourth Turning (w/ Ed Harrison & Max Weithe)
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DB-Jan27,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison sits down with Max Wiethe to discuss how Ed is making sense of the retail assault on short-sellers as an expression of the unfolding of The Fourth Turning. Harrison argues that intergenerational conflict has been brewing outside of the market; however, it now has found its way to Wall Street in the form of Robinhood traders looking to take out the old guard of finance and make a killing in the process. Real Vision’s Peter Cooper kicks it off by examining the various short squeezes occurring across U.S. and European equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 27, 2021
Bitcoin & The Future of Regulation (w/ Caitlin Long & Raoul Pal)
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Crypto Wednesday: Recorded on November 30, 2020. Caitlin Long, CEO & Founder of Avanti Financial Group, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss Bitcoin, Wyoming at the forefront of regulations, and the problems of custody for crypto assets. Long explains the benefits Bitcoin has over many traditional asset classes as well as the concerns brought about by unclear regulations. She sheds light on how and why Wyoming aims to provide the most clear crypto regulatory environment in the US, and she also touches on Avanti, the crypto bank and custody company she founded. Key Learnings: The importance of having clear regulations for crypto assets and their custody can not be understated. As innovative states such as Wyoming remove uncertainty by providing clear regulations, more investors will be able to get exposure to the asset class with confidence. Regulations are becoming more clear, but not all states stand on equal footing, and competitive regulatory environments are emerging within the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 27, 2021
"GameStonk" Lunacy: Is Speculative Fervor Reaching Epic Proportions?( w/ Tommy Thornton & Ash B)
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DB-Jan26,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to break down a day of absurd price action as GameStop skyrocketed 90% today and zoomed an additional 46% during afterhours trading. Tommy and Ash reflect on the shrewd yet reckless speculations of the r/wallstreetbets traders, who pushed hedge funds that were short GameStop like Melvin Capital to the brink, with Tommy noting that this intentional targeting of shorts triggered a record day of long/short degrossing. Turning to technical indicators, Tommy comments on the buying exhaustion he is seeing via DeMARK indicators, saying “this is a bubble that I think could pop at any moment.” He recommends “ringing the register” on successful trades and turning to cash. Tommy closes by giving Ash a long idea: Zynga Inc ($ZNGA). In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin makes sense of the market as company earnings reports take center stage and wild swings resume on heavily shorted stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 26, 2021
Reflation Misgivings and The GameStop Gamma Squeeze ( w/ Ed Harrison & Jack Farlay )
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DB-Jan25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down the logic-defying price action in highly speculative stocks like Blackberry, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and, most notably, GameStop Corp, which surged over 160% to $159 before plummeting yet still being up on the day. Ed and Jack break down the “short squeezes” and “gamma squeezes” that are inflating those names, particularly GameStop, with Ed interpreting his Real Vision Live with Jim Bianco today and Jack sourcing info from volatility trader Kris Sidial. Lastly, Ed shares his thinking on how the different COVID-19 variants will impact re-opening as well as the reflation trade, which he thinks may have overstepped its bounds. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin describes what happened with GameStop’s volatile trading today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 25, 2021
The Insolvency Phase: Why the Market is Mispricing Insolvency Risk( w/ Matt Rowe and Wiethe)
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Real Vision Live Replay, Recorded on 24 Sep 2020: Here at Real Vision it’s clear that viewers are keenly focused on Raoul’s unfolding thesis and the potential that the market is teetering between hope and insolvency, but so are many of our contributors. Matt Rowe of Headwaters Volatility Solutions was inspired by Raoul’s recent call for an insolvency phase and in this special edition of Real Vision Live will be putting his corporate credit hat back on to provide a deeper dive into how both credit and equity markets are totally mispricing the insolvency risks looming large post-COVID. Please note that Matt has an extensive background in corporate credit and before founding Headwaters Volatility Solutions was the managing partner of a fund focused on convertible bond and capital structure arbitrage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 25, 2021
USD's Reserve Status, the Eurodollar System, and International Trade ( w/ Lyn Alden & Hugh Hendry )
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The Interview, Recorded on December 1, 2020.: Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels implied by its persistent trade deficit. But while Alden thinks the Eurodollar system will expand beyond the control of the U.S., Hendry argues that American commercial banks will continue to control the supply of dollars in reality, and that the U.S. will remain the global monetary hegemon. Hendry has also provided a transcript he has personally edited to clarify some of his points in this interview: https://rvtv.io/3gysJZT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 24, 2021
Teddy Vallee on the Dollar, Hard Assets, and the Real Rate Rotation (w/ Jack Farley)
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Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 23, 2021
COVID-19 Spiraling Out of Control, Whipsawing Crypto, and the Coiled Snake of Macro
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DB-Jan22,2021: Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share his latest thoughts on COVID-19, market froth, and cryptocurrency. Using models from his latest Real Vision Pro report, “Wile E. Coyote,” Raoul plots several dire situations for COVID-19 deaths. Raoul then talks about why he may smell “fire in the room” in the equity market, looking at indicators such as call option volume, activity in the pink sheet stocks, and the sky-high use of margin. Raoul and Ash then discuss the recent pullback in Bitcoin, and Raoul tells Ash what he thinks of alt coins and the risk/reward they offer to investors. Raoul reflects on the recent flatness in bond yields and the dollar, and he explores whether macro investors are turning toward crypto markets because that’s where the action is happening. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down today’s economic data release for the PMIs from Germany, France, and the U.S. as well as IBM’s earnings disappointment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 22, 2021
The Fed's Quandary: Speculative Fervor Around Inflation Expectations ( w/ Michael Lebowitz & Ed Harrison)
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DB-Jan21,2021: Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market’s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden’s holding office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 21, 2021
Buy the Reflation Rumor and Sell the Recovery News?
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DB - Jan20, 2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision’s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, “Is Everything a Bubble?” In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 20, 2021
Discerning the Phases of a Crypto Bull Market( w/ Ari Paul & Raoul Pal)
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Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 20, 2021
Tony Greer - When the Bond Market Speaks, I Like to Listen
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DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 19, 2021
Ask Me Anything with "The Young Bucks": DB-Jan18, 2021
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Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 18, 2021
COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation ( w/ Jeff Booth & Raoul Pal )
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REAL VISION LIVE REPLAY'S: Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement. Recorded on Sep 24, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 18, 2021
The Incoming Commodity Supercycle ( w/ Tian Yang and Simon White )
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Recorded on October 28, 2020. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of "fiscal dominance" where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen since the 1970s. In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return. Key learnings: Tian Yang and Simon White argue the world is on the brink of a new inflationary regime, driven by "fiscal dominance" and swollen central bank balance sheets, in which hard assets such as gold, silver, oil, gas, and coal will finally have their heyday. You can read more on the commodity supercycle here: https://rvtv.io/35kVFAd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 16, 2021
Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the U.S. Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant: DB-Jan15,2021
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Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 15, 2021
Real Vision's New President on the Dollar, Bonds, Bitcoin, and Tether: DB-Jan14,2021
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Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 15, 2021
Why Bond Yields Are the True Reflation Toggle: DB - Jan13,2021
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 13, 2021
The Perfect Macro Story( w/ Mike Novogratz & Raoul Pal )
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Crypto Wednesday: Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, joins Real Vision ceo Raoul Pal to discuss investing in the crypto space, the risk curve, and accelerating crypto adoption. Novogratz breaks down how he allocates his own crypto portfolio and touches on some of the lessons he learned in the 2017 crypto bubble. He explains the impact that COVID-19 had on crypto and the digitization of everything. Novogratz describes the different products and funds available through Galaxy Digital Holdings.Key Learnings: The crypto investment space is growing quickly, and Novogratz shares some of the lessons learned from the previous crypto bubbles he has experienced. He explains the importance of staying rational, and touches on some of the key metrics he follows, such as, market cap and fully diluted market cap. Community and use or "pick up" of a project are core components he looks at when studying a new crypto investment. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 13, 2021
How Inflationary Risk Could Corner the Fed: DB- Jan12, 2021
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Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the full force of inflation that could emerge in 2021 could pose a significant risk to the Fed’s ability to execute. With Treasury yields rising, Boockvar anticipates the scrutiny of stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios to continue expanding, and once the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more extensive in the coming months, he explains that the shift in spending toward services-oriented consumption could trigger a rise in nominal rates, but not necessarily in real rates. With the potential risk of inflation accelerating in the coming months and a yield curve that could steepen too quickly, he argues that these circumstances will restrict the Fed’s ability to act in the case of a market event. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the continued rise in treasury yields and the macro economic impact of all the debt that has been printed by the U.S. government. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 12, 2021
Bitcoin's Stumble and the Bond Market's Moment of Truth: DB- Jan11,2021
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the interplay between interest rates and duration and why lower interest rates cause growth stocks to explode higher as well as what rising yields mean for risk assets and the dollar. Ed and Jack discuss Bitcoin, analyzing its volatility profile as well as its correlation to other cryptocurrencies and to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Since Bitcoin is in the hands of more institutional investors, who also own and trade traditional assets, Ed and Jack also explore whether the success of Raoul’s “wall of money” thesis means that Bitcoin will be more positively correlated to stocks and bonds going forward. Lastly, Ed shares several market dislocations that are on his horizon which are shaping his macro framework and trade ideas. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explains why market sentiment is dim on Monday, a modest reversal after last week’s strong start to 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 11, 2021
Central Bank Omnipotence ( w/ Jeff Snider and Ed Harrison)
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Recorded on 3 Sep, 2020. Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves. Since March, the “Fed's got your back” mantra has rocketed markets to new all-time highs. Now, there are two questions to be had. First, what role will central banks play moving forward as they go above and beyond their mandates? Second, will their macro framework and economic toolkit be enough to lift growth and change the path of inflation? In an attempt to understand how this all plays out, we’ve invited Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, to sit down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 11, 2021
Macro: A Framework for Truth ( w/ Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden )
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Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 10, 2021
The Next Phase of the Crypto Bull Market ( w/ Dan Morehead and Raoul Pal )
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Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the current macro setup and its relationship to crypto as well as why this crypto bull market is different from the last and what the potential benefits could be from incoming regulations. Morehead explains what the focus at Pantera Capital has been over the past several months, including what he expects to outperform in the crypto sector. He also describes how he sees the crypto ecosystem evolving over the next few years and why the entry of Paypal into the crypto space is significant. Key Learnings: With his extensive knowledge of the macro world, Morehead brings a wealth of expertise to the crypto space, and he expounds on what factors may have contributed to the recent surge in crypto interest and value. He describes why Bitcoin will likely continue to do well; however, he elaborates on why he expects other crypto assets to outperform and why Bitcoin might not be able to outperform some smaller assets in the sector. Recorded on December 8, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 09, 2021
Raoul's Framework for 2021 and Beyond: DB- Jan8, 2021
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Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal returns to the Daily Briefing to share with Ash Bennington his updated thesis for the new year. Raoul argues that the prevailing narrative around reflation is a “one-sided bet” (short bonds, short dollars, long commodities, and long equities) that offers little upside, remains vulnerable to the risk of shutdowns, leaves a lasting scar on the labor market that will take years to recover from, and causes a spike in the U.S. dollar, which would serve as a “wrecking ball” for a host of reflation risk assets. Instead, Raoul prefers bonds, a sprinkling of puts on the S&P 500, and of course crypto, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum. Raoul and Ash reflect on the tremendous rally in Bitcoin and discuss how Metcalfe’s law applies to it and Ethereum. They also discuss the implications of the rise in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations and how those factors will affect markets and the economy. In the intro, editor Jack Farley reports on the latest jobs numbers and reviews price action in Tesla, gold, and silver. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 08, 2021
Vulnerabilities of the Reflation Consensus: DB- Jan7, 2021
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Real Vision managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst examine the consensus around reflation which has gripped financial markets – a narrative that Roger views as the most unanimous one he’s seen in his entire career. Ed and Roger first define reflation as a pick-up in growth alongside inflation and explore why so many market participants believe it to be a foregone conclusion. They then discuss the rush into small-caps, high yield, and low-quality stocks that has occurred as the confidence in reflation has strengthened. Ed and Roger consider everything from the yield curve to job losses to speculative positioning in copper and cattle, and they look forward to what is on the horizon for markets and the economy. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines why the political unrest in Washington didn’t dent cryptocurrency or the stock market’s ongoing rally Thursday, and she looks ahead at what to expect from the job market in 2021. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 07, 2021
The Debt-Liquidity Spiral ( w/ Michael Howell & Ed Harrison )
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Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, believes that liquidity is the ultimate force driving global markets. In this interview with Ed Harrison, Howell argues that liquidity, debt, and asset prices are interlocked in a predictable cyclical relationship that he calls "the debt-liquidity spiral." Although - as its name suggests - this cycle results in higher debt levels and risk, it isn't inherently bearish for equities. Together, Howell and Harrison discuss where we are currently in this cycle and why it has him bullish on the Euro, equities, gold, and bitcoin, but bearish on bonds and the Dollar. They also discuss the effects of the U.S. decoupling from China on a handful of assets and why it will likely continue under a Biden administration. . Key Learnings: Howell’s liquidity models have him cautiously bullish on equities — more specifically, his models are indicating that they are nowhere near bubble territory and haven’t been since 2000. His models also point towards a lower Dollar, higher Euro, 2% yields on the U.S. 10-Year in 2021, and gold and bitcoin at $2,500 and $25,000 respectively. Recorded on November 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 07, 2021
Chaos Rules in D.C.: Lyn Alden on the Fourth Turning and Her Latest Trades: DB- Jan6, 2020
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In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 07, 2021
Tony Greer on Oil's Surge, Liquidity Bonanzas, and "Inflation Hedge Paradise": DB- Jan5,2021
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Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 05, 2021
Accounting Schemes at Chinese Tech Giants (w/ Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass)
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Hayman Capital's founder and CIO Kyle Bass welcomes forensic accountant and Behind the Balance Sheet's founder Stephen Clapham to break down the accounting irregularities peppered throughout the regulatory filings of China’s biggest tech companies. Sharing insights from his proprietary research report on Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, and Tencent, Clapham shines a light on the ways these companies are using loopholes in order to inflate profits, hide liabilities, and mask the capitalization of questionable assets. Bass frames Clapham's findings through the lens of notable balance sheet disasters and downright frauds, and they explore the jurisdictional risk of investing in Chinese companies in general. Lastly, Bass asks Clapham about his latest book, "The Smart Money Method: How to Pick Stocks Like A Hedge Fund Pro". Key Learnings: Hidden risks lurk within corporate balance sheets, even those of the world’s largest tech companies. Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass show viewers how to spot those risks before they can inflict major damage to your portfolio. Recorded on November 18, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 05, 2021
2021 Kickoff: Looking Through the Headlines with Mike Green: DB - Jan4, 2020
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Mike Green kicks off the Real Vision Daily Briefing in 2021 with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe. Although markets sold off and volatility rose sharply, Mike was not particularly surprised by today’s price action and attributes today’s selloff to market participants who waited until 2021 to take profits rather than the runoff risks that many attributed to this. He also makes the case for markets building towards a substantial correction at some point in 2021 and gives his outlook for the Georgia runoff and other important events on the horizon. In the intro section, Haley Draznin analyzes recent price action in bitcoin and equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 04, 2021
The Future of Crypto and the Next Generation of Blockchain ( w/ Olaf Carlson-Wee )
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Recorded on October 8, 2020. Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder & CEO of Polychain Capital, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Web3, decentralized finance, and the future of blockchain technology. Carlson-Wee describes his background, being Coinbase’s first employee, and the creation of Polychain Capital. He covers decentralized autonomous organizations, how they operate today, and how they will look in the future. Carlson-Wee goes into detail about the next generation of blockchains and how they differ from Bitcoin and the utility they hope to achieve. He explains the importance of defi and breaks down how he approaches research to find "the next big thing". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 04, 2021
Pinpointing Scams in the Gold Mining Industry (w/ Warren Irwin and Max Wiethe)
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Recorded on 17 August 2020. It's no secret that as of late, precious metals have become the talk of the town. Gold recently blasted through its all time high, while silver continues its seemingly unstoppable run. With so much excitement surrounding the two metals, however, one must exercise extreme caution and discipline when choosing a way to gain exposure since not all assets are cut from the same cloth --particularly when it comes to the mining sector. On this segment of Real Vision Live, we bring you an individual that is well versed on the matter as he managed to turn $250k into several million by investing in a mining company that turned out to be a scam. Ultimately, he sold and immediately shorted the stock, which in turn allowed him to benefit from both the rise and fall. Warren Irwin, President and CIO at Rosseau Asset Management, will be joining Max Wiethe to discuss the nature of scams in the mining space and how to go about choosing the right companies to take part in what many believe could be the beginning of a bull market in precious metals. List of things to watch out for when investing in junior miners: https://rvtv.io/31oGWT9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 03, 2021
Not in Kansas Anymore ( w/ Raoul Pal and Hugh Hendry )
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Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to re-imagine the future of money, credit, currency, and interest rates. The great predicament of the past decade, Hendry argues, has been the tendency of central bank lending to become "trapped" in the commercial banking sector as reserves rather than being funneled into the real economy to fund productive activity. To fix this problem, Hendry envisions a world of ultra-negative rates in order to funnel the liquidity out of the financial sector. Short-term rates would have to go to -3% -- perhaps even lower in order to accommodate a steep yield curve -- is needed for banks to not go out of business. Pal investigates the profound consequences that this paradigm shift in monetary policy would have on the dollar, inflation, and creation, asking Hendry about alternatives such as perpetual bonds and modern monetary theory. Pal and Hendry then consider the optimal portfolio for this brave new world, including assets such as gold, calls on Eurodollar futures, and even Bitcoin. Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos Key learnings: A move to ultra-negative interest rates might be necessary to force liquidity out of the banking system and into the real economy. Such a paradigm shift in monetary policy would drench most assets in unprecedented liquidity and make cash a very unattractive asset to hold. Recorded on November 12, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 02, 2021
Jeremy Grantham's Big Calls: Emerging Markets, Venture Capital, and the Green Revolution
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Long-term investment strategist and co-founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself as a bubble spotter. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Grantham argues that although we are again in a market bubble, it has an entirely different make up than prior bubbles and is almost devoid of the opportunity that these periods of misallocation historically provide. As a result, he sees opportunities as few and far between in public markets. With the exception of emerging markets and the greening of the economy, an endeavor that he believes is a societal necessity, he encourages investors to look towards venture. Together, Grantham and Green also debate China's position in Grantham's emerging market thesis and the green revolution, the pollution paradoxes of greening the economy, and the merits of societies and forms government that incentivize cooperation among people and risk taking in the form of early stage venture capital. Key Learnings: Emerging markets are the only place that Grantham sees clear opportunity in public markets. Using COVID response as a case study, Grantham worries about America’s potential to solve the problem of climate change. He also argues that if not for venture capital, American innovation would be non-existent. Recorded on November 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Jan 01, 2021
Finding Relative Value Amid Credit Market Madness (w/ Boaz Weinstein and Ed Harrison)
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Boaz Weinstein, founder and CIO of Saba Capital Management, made a name for himself at Deutsche Bank in the early days of credit derivatives. Since leaving to start his own fund he has continued to make a name for himself as a master of credit derivatives and relative value. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Weinstein discusses how the current environment of tight spreads for pristine balance sheets and vulnerable companies alike is presenting some interesting relative value opportunities. Harrison and Weinstein also discuss Bill Ackman's recent reup on the same big CDS trade that has helped Saba return over 70% YTD, the Fed’s role in credit markets and credit ETF liquidity problems, and the opportunities Weinstein is seeing in closed-end funds. Key Learnings: The credit of companies with close to zero percent chance of defaulting is trading at the same prices as companies with serious COVID risks is presenting RV opportunities. Closed-end funds trading at discounts to NAV are also presenting rare opportunities for yield in this low-rate environment. Recorded on November 23, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 31, 2020
Silicon Valley Innovation in the Covid Era (w/ Raoul Pal and Keith Rabois)
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Venture capitalist Keith Rabois, a general partner with Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is widely known for his early-stage startup investments and his executive roles at PayPal, LinkedIn, and Square. He sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, to discuss the evolution of innovation in Silicon Valley over the last two decades, highlighting its entrepreneurial spirit and the revolutionary power of technology. They dive into the shifts in consumer behavior amid the coronavirus pandemic, the IPO market boom, the rise of SPACs, and how COVID-19 could transform higher education. Recorded on September 28, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 30, 2020
The Winklevoss Twins: Bitcoin Is The "Trade of the Decade" (w/ Raoul Pal)
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Tyler Winklevoss, CEO and co-founder of Gemini, and Cameron Winklevoss, president and co-founder of Gemini, join Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss how they first discovered Bitcoin, their exploration into other crypto assets, and market psychology. They explain the importance of network effects for Bitcoin, noting that it is a type of social network. The Winklevoss brothers share their grand vision for Gemini and how they plan to shepherd the next wave of adopters away from legacy finance and fully into crypto. Key Learnings: The crypto asset class is very small and, because of this, institutional investors have been unable to get exposure to it. Bitcoin is a very young asset with enormous upside potential. Many people are just starting to get their feet wet in crypto, and the Winklevoss brothers believe that eventually people will leave the legacy financial systems fully for crypto infrastructure with Gemini helping to facilitate this migration. Recorded on December 7, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 29, 2020
Chamath Palihapitiya on SPACs, Bitcoin, and the New World of Finance ( w/Raoul Pal )
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Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, gives Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, an inside glimpse of the seismic forces that are radically transforming the investment landscape — from SPACs and tokenization to data autonomy and virtual learning. Palihapitiya argues that old structures of capital formation, which prioritized buybacks rather than Research & Development (R&D) and "efficiency" rather than resiliency, will give way to a new future in which fintech companies will replace "too big to fail" banks, green energy will de-escalate geopolitical tensions, and tokenization will serve as a digital ledger for every financial transaction. Palihapitiya and Pal discuss the role of Bitcoin in this new world, and Palihapitiya advocates for a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Key Learnings: The old ways of managing companies and allocating capital were unsound, and COVID-19 has laid bare the fact that the "emperor has no clothes." With radical change is on the horizon, investors should embrace these technological transformations in order to become a magnate of the future. Recorded on November 16, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 28, 2020
What Does It Take to Invest in Russia? ( w/ Harvey Sawikin )
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Harvey Sawikin, co-founder and lead portfolio manager at Firebird Management, a fund dedicated to investing in frontier and emerging market equities in Eastern Europe, joins Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin for a conversation about the development of emerging markets over the past several decades and the sector outlook. Firebird started out as the first Russian portfolio equity fund and has since expanded to include other countries in the region such as Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Romania. Sawikin shares why his investment strategy differs in more mature and developed markets, how a typical investor in emerging markets has evolved, portfolio repositioning amid the Covid-19 pandemic, and the value of travel in investing. . Key learnings: Emerging markets are often a blind spot for investors—finding them requires assessing liquidity risk and geopolitical climate. Dollar strength and weakness is the macro factor that has the biggest impact on emerging markets. The disinflationary environment has led Firebird to reposition its portfolio towards more growth stocks in the Eastern European region and less towards cyclicals. Recorded on December 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 27, 2020
The Central Banks' Easy Money Experiment Will End Badly (w/ Jim Grant & William White)
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William White, former central banker at the BoE, BoC, and BIS and senior fellow at the CD Howe Institute, has been a thorn in the side of his central banking colleagues for decades, questioning their hubris and pushing hard for a paradigm shift from within. Together with legendary financial commentator Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, White explores the difficulty of paradigm shifts within central banking and the overwhelming historical evidence that this easy money experiment will end badly. White also expresses what he believes to be the core problem with central bankers' analytical framework — namely, that it assumes that the global economic system is "comprehensible, understandable, and controllable" rather than a complex, adaptive system with characteristics that are not present in the models that attempt to decipher it. As well, Grant questions White on his views on Bitcoin, how he personally invests, what he would do if he were running the Federal Reserve, and if there is any possible way out of our current predicament. . Key Learnings: Central Bankers' neglect for history will be their ultimate undoing, and although new, previously unthinkable policies have been enacted recently, it can hardly be considered a paradigm shift but merely a more extreme implementation of the same flawed analytical framework. The outcome of the deflation vs. inflation debate is not cut and dry even to someone as learned as William White, and he himself has for decades implemented a barbell strategy of cash and property as a way to position for this uncertainty. Recorded on November 16, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 26, 2020
The Controversial STABLE Act & Its Implications for Crypto
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Rohan Grey, president of Modern Money Network & doctoral fellow at Cornell Law, joins Santiago Velez, co-founder and R&D division lead for Block Digital, to discuss the controversial STABLE Act, the history of private and public monies, and the future of stable coins. Grey gives a detailed history lesson on money and its relationship to government. They talk through the key tenets of the STABLE Act and its implications for the crypto space over all and stable coins more specifically. Grey explains the differences between Central Bank Digital Currencies and E-Money and touches on the importance of privacy for financial transactions. Key Learnings: The government and public monies are strongly connected, and Grey believes that there are major systemic risks presented by assets aiming to disrupt the government's oversight of the issuance of its money with history providing strong evidence of these risks. For those investing in the crypto space, the passing of the STABLE Act may negatively impact certain types of stable coin projects as some may fall under the umbrella of this bill. Higher regulatory burdens may force some crypto projects to shutdown while those who are capable of meeting the higher bar may flourish with regulatory backing. Recorded on December 14, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 24, 2020
Ed and Ash's Holiday Send-Off: Looking Ahead to 2021
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Special Edition of Daily Briefing with Ash Bennington and Ed Harrison. They will answer audience questions, provide an update on what they're seeing in markets this holiday season, and look ahead to the opportunities and macro risks for 2021. Checkout Real Vision's newest podcasts : Ground Floor Consensus : apple podcast link : https://rvtv.io/3ri3RKD Between2Chains: Apple Podcast link : https://rvtv.io/2KAONXO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 24, 2020
Taking Things in Stride: Stimulus, COVID-19, and Inflation: DB- Dec22, 2020
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Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington joins Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss the new fiscal package from Congress, the macro signals Tony has his eye on, and his outlook for the new year. Tony discusses how the spending package is insufficient, especially for American families, and describes the markets’ reaction as slightly “sell the fact” as made evident by the DXY’s modest but noticeable bounce. After Ash reviews some of the current data for COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S., Tony says that markets are still looking past this information and are more focused on the reopening. He also describes the relationship of the dollar and equities as it relates to the Fed’s modus operandi to create inflation with a weaker dollar. Finally, he shares the new opportunity that he sees emerging for U.S. financials, what he’s looking out for in the new year, and why he’s holding onto more dry powder during this holiday season. In the intro, editor Jack Farley covers Ripple's SEC investigation, U.S. bankruptcies, as well as market flow data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 22, 2020
The Investment Portfolio that Grows and Preserves Wealth for 100 Years (w/ Jason Buck & Chris Cole)
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In the grand finale to “The Big Picture,” Jason Buck speaks to Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital. Chris is one of the sharpest players in the volatility space and has made his name by playing risks and opportunities that others can’t see. An outspoken critic of the 60/40 equity/bond split, Chris is an advocate of what he calls “the dragon portfolio,” which consists of gold, long volatility, and commodity trend-following in addition to stocks and bonds. Chris gave a glimpse of the dragon portfolio when he spoke with Danielle DiMartino Booth on Real Vision in February 2020. Since then, volatility has exploded, both during the massive sell-off in March as well as in the shocking market melt-up since then. Simply put, the dragon has been unleashed. The twin risks of the left tail (deflationary deleveraging) and right tail (inflationary deleveraging) loom large. As Chris wrote in his 2020 report, "to thrive, we must embody the cosmic duality between the hawk and the serpent." For access to Chris’ 2020 report, “The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent: How to Grow and Preserve Wealth for 100 Years,” click here: https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn Recorded on July 27, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 22, 2020
When Market Ebullience Meets A Left Hook: DB- Dec21, 2020
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Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimulus relief package passes in the US and a new strain of the coronavirus emerged in England, prompting fresh travel restrictions across Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 21, 2020
The Golden Age of Corporate Fraud (w/ Jim Chanos & Mike Green)
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Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, is one of the most legendary investors of all-time, short seller or otherwise. Even after an incredible bull run that has taken many short sellers out back behind the woodshed to be put down, he's still generating incredible alpha for his investors. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Chanos explains why we are in a golden age of fraud where the market fails to recognize frauds until the last minute. He also highlights the dynamic of growth-starved investors willing to throw money at any company that can demonstrate a large total addressable market (TAM) even if there is no demonstrable chance of profit. He cites business models like Uber and Grubhub as examples of the market's TAMSanity. He also touches on two of his highest conviction shorts, IBM and the commercial real estate sector, with IBM being described as the ultimate example of a COVID loser and commercial real estate being described as a "slow motion train wreck." Key Learnings: Investors wanting to get short must be cautious and manage risk as the market is not pricing in fraud until the last minute. As well, IBM should serve as an example of the types of companies who have failed to innovate and whose death has been accelerated by COVID. The writing is on the wall for commercial real estate and the debt and leverage in the industry can help investors determine the timing of its slow death as obligations will eventually have to be met. Recorded on November 11, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 20, 2020
Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle
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For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. . For more charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and https://rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way. Recorded on November 11, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 19, 2020
Raoul's Christmas Market Wrap: DB- Dec18,2020
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Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his market wrap-up of 2020. They monitor the price dislocations at the close as the S&P 500 was under pressure all day ahead of Tesla’s historic entry into the index. Pal looks back at the year that was from equities to the bond market to crypto to gold, silver and copper. He sees emerging markets breaking out in 2021, specifically identifying opportunities in Iran. In the intro, Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin touches upon Coinbase filing for an IPO as Bitcoin surges to all-time. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 18, 2020
Mike Green - This Car Has No Brakes (But We re Driving Uphill): DB- Dec17, 2020
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Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors joins Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, to share his market outlook as U.S. equities yet again reach all-time highs. Green breaks down the current market structure, looking at how changes to order book depth and inter-asset correlations present investment risks. Green and Bennington discuss commodities, passive investing, and the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, with Green sharing his outlook on inflation and interest rates. Lastly, Bennington asks Green his views on crypto-assets and particularly Bitcoin, which continues to surge immensely. In the intro, editor Jack Farley jobless reports on today’s jobless claims, the status of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and Tesla’s looming entry into the S&P 500. The paper by Rob Arnott on Tesla, which Jack mentions, can be found here: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/819-tesla-the-largest-cap-stock-ever.html?evar36=eml_tesla-hero-title&_cldee=amFja0ByZWFsdmlzaW9uLmNvbQ%3d%3d&recipientid=contact-a2eae8d2e63beb1180f1b4c5161772f1-63905c439f0c42899407aad7822ace65&esid=0498153a-6840-eb11-80f1-b4c5161772f1. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 17, 2020
Looking Beyond the U.S. and a Few Crumbs from the Fed Meeting: DB: Dec16, 2020
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Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison and Editor Max Wiethe discuss the next turn of the rotation trade and the few crumbs of information served up from today's Fed meeting. Ed and Max begin by briefly addressing today’s Fed FOMC meeting where, almost no majors changes were announced and focus on the updated summary of economic projections. They then examine the bull case for the next leg of the rotation trade and the argument that its geography could be much different than the prior leg. They also discuss a few recent market anomalies surrounding algorithmic trading, as well as the recent onslaught of IPOs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 16, 2020
Ash and Jack's Impromptu Briefing: DB- Dec15 , 2020
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Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision’s Jack Farley, who is filling in for Dave Floyd. Jack and Ash break down the rising volumes of put option contracts on DoorDash, and the announcement that Blade Urban Air Mobility will go public in 2021 via a SPAC. Ash then provides his analysis on COVID-19 hospitalizations and Georgia’s elections. Lastly, Ash and Jack discuss big tech valuations and preview this week’s interviews. In the intro, Haley Draznin updates viewers on REITs and Congress’ stimulus progress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 16, 2020
The Major Corporate Solvency Crisis: DB - Dec14, 2020
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the growing corporate debt crisis. Ed and Jack discuss the latest report from the Group of Thirty, which finds that balance sheet impairment will complicate economic recovery and persist long after this pandemic ends. Ed crystallizes the risks into three separate categories—pandemic-related, economic, and financial—and incorporates these risks into Raoul’s framework on the “insolvency phase." Ed and Jack also discuss fiscal aid, sector rotation, and lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the joyous news of the beginnings of vaccine distribution in the U.S., AstraZeneca's announcement to acquire Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and the sterling's rally on renewed Brexit trade negotiations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 14, 2020
Ric Edelman on Bitcoin: Breaking Down the Barriers to Entry
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Acclaimed financial advisor Ric Edelman, founder of the RIA Digital Assets Council (www.riadac.com) and Edelman Financial Engines, the #1 RIA firm in the nation according to Barron’s, talks with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about the barriers preventing financial managers and investors from buying bitcoin and how the crypto community can gain mass adoption. Edelman explains the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a diversified portfolio, shares his approach to investing in digital assets, and reveals his expectations for a Bitcoin ETF. All this and more, recorded Nov. 30, 2020. Key Learnings: Due to the slow progress of an official Bitcoin ETF, there are significant barriers to entry for financial managers to give their clients exposure to this asset class. Edelman explains how these barriers will eventually be removed. As Bitcoin provides valuable diversification for portfolios where traditional allocations may no longer generate satisfactory returns and hedge risk in the current market environment, there is an urgent need for investors to become educated about the crypto asset class as it approaches mainstream adoption. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 13, 2020
James Litinsky: Rare Earths Taking Center Stage in the Electric Vehicle Boom
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James Litinsky, founder and CEO of MP Materials ($MP), is joined by Real Vision editor Jack Farley to discuss his mission to restore to North America the rare earth supply chain, which for decades has been dominated by China. Litinsky highlights the critical role rare earth elements are playing in the economy of the future, explaining their uses in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other markets that are set to dramatically expand. After Litinsky shares his experience in MP Materials’ going public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), he and Farley discuss the properties of MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine that make it uniquely able to produce rare earth concentrate at a low cost and in an environmentally-friendly manner. Lastly, Litinsky, a former hedge fund manager, puts back on his "investor" hat to share his macro framework. For the Real Vision "Discoveries" documentary on the Mountain Pass mine, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/discoveries/videos/the-rare-earth-metal-megatrend. For more about MP Materials, click here: https://mpmaterials.com/. Recorded on December 2, 2020. Key Learnings: Litinsky believes rare earths are an effective "picks and shovels" play on the exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs), since all electric vehicles require Neodymium Praseodymium (NdPr) magnets to power their motors, and since EV stocks are priced to perfection and are largely in the pre-profit stage (and in some cases, pre-revenue). Litinsky argues that the rich ore body of the Mountain Pass mine best positions MP Materials to command market share, calling the mine "the Saudi Arabia of Rare Earths." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 12, 2020
Bubblicious Markets and Big Tech's Monopolistic Behavior: DB-Dec11, 2020
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss water futures, “bubblicious” market froth, and potential anti-competitive behavior by Big Tech. After Ed and Ash give their brief review of political news, Ed shares his analysis of the recent IPOs of DoorDash and Airbnb with Ash noting parallels between current market conditions and those that preceded the Dot-com bubble. Ed and Ash then explore the significance of the recent addition of water futures to the CME exchange. In the intro, Jack Farley and Weston Nakamura embark on a chart-filled journey on the Nikkei 225, the Japanese Yen, and currency pairs. For greater details and more charts from Weston and Jack, check out their conversation in the Real Vision Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/follow-up-to-my-daily-briefing-intro-with-weston-nakamura-s-galore-5fd3f00fffc3b852f6b03a2b. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 12, 2020
Tempering Exuberance: Market Signals Over Market Noise: DB- Dec 10, 2020
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the market exuberance around this week’s IPOs, DeMarc indicators, and his forward outlook. Thornton elaborates on why the speculative bubble surrounding the IPOs for DoorDash and Airbnb is worrisome and too volatile to either long or short at this point. He also dives into DeMarc indicators, sharing what they are and how he analyzes markets and crafts investing strategies around their use. Thornton then talks about what his outlook in light of a true reopening is for oil, financials, cyclicals, and tech. Harrison and Thornton end on discussing the DXY and currency markets. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the jobless claims spike after the Thanksgiving week and the higher than expected valuations of Airbnb and Doordash going public. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 10, 2020
A Corporate Executive's Market: Unprofitable IPOs and Dilutive Offerings: DB
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to put today’s market selloff in context of the broader bullish attitudes that have prevailed amid trouble in the real economy. They also highlight individual stories from the week like DoorDash's and Airbnb’s IPOs and Tesla’s successful $5 billion dilutive offering as examples of this market favoring corporate managers above all else. Beyond equity markets, Ed and Max touch on the steepening yield curve as another bullish signal and address the knock-on effects for real yields and gold as well as the conflicting signal being sent by a weak dollar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 09, 2020
Visions of a Vaccinated World: The Trajectory of the Market Rotation: DB- Dec 8, 2020
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Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to delve into the day’s trading and explore where markets are currently at. With Joe Biden becoming President-Elect and the race for a vaccine coming closer to the end, markets have changed their tune, and Greer explains how the rotation trade is continuing to be sustained due to the markets’ vision of a vaccinated world. Greer also considers how the virtualization of society due to the pandemic will have enduring effects in the way people live and work and what that implies for new market trends such as the recent abundance of tech IPOs. Greer shares his thoughts on why the Fed will continue to only address the recovery through asset price inflation, and he discusses what this means for various asset classes. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the K-shaped recovery in the housing market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 09, 2020
Cold Winter, Hot Money: DB-Dec 7, 2020
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Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the froth of the market and explore whether it will boil over. Ed analyzes the significance of the Smart Money Index’s (SMI) hitting a one-year low, and Jack gives a snapshot of the roaring U.S. credit markets. Ed looks at the ongoing efforts to distribute the vaccine in the U.K. and ponders the rotation trade from growth to value stocks, as electric vehicle makers surge and cloud technology stocks remain exorbitantly priced, by historical metrics. Ed discusses Tesla’s eclipsing of Berkshire Hathaway in market capitalization, a phenomenon which Ed sees as the epitome of the market’s current zeal for flashy, growthy names. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reviews price action and stimulus hopes, as well as a slew of upcoming IPOs, including DoorDash and AirBnb. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Dec 08, 2020
Kaplan and Rule: The Golden Ticket: The Interview
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