Saxo Market Call

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Saxo Group's strategy team delivers market insights across all asset classes.

Episode Date
When is the great disinflation bet derailed?
22:57

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Today we discuss the possible reactivity to today's US July CPI data point, especially if a hotter than expected core reading challenges the market's determined bet that inflation is set to roll over and normalize over the next couple of years. We also look at an equity market that is technically rolling over, a US dollar that needs to choose a direction, and compelling commodity stories and chart points in gold, crude oil and coffee. A semiconductor, EV, deglobalization, and Walt Disney focus on the equity coverage today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 10, 2022
Bears finally get a hook
20:32

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The equity market turned tail after another upside burst yesterday, creating the first compelling technical reversal in a while, with no readily identifiable catalyst, though we maintain concerns that complacency on how this cycle will shape up is excessive, particularly on geopolitical concerns and de-globalization drivers. Today we also look at NVidia's ugly revenue miss, Grains, gas and metals in commodities, and earnings reports on tap for today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 09, 2022
The market is not for turning
15:35

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The market continues to hang on to its view that the peak in Fed rates is imminent and that it will cut from around mid-next year despite strong US data and Fed members making clear that another big hike is coming in September. Can this week's CPI data change that? We also discuss commodities, with oil prices possibly a bit complacent given tight supply, while metals are showing signs of turning and gold is "walking a tightrope" on the macro outlook. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 08, 2022
Market complacency and the 2008 parallels.
19:15

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Today we look at market complacency continuing as the market seems to be pricing in a soft landing for the economy and eventual disinflation. We compare the course of the current US equity market drawdown from the top with the bear market of 2007-09, take a look at the market's reaction to the Bank of England's dire outlook for the economy in its meeting yesterday, discuss the impact of buybacks on the US equity market, preview today's US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 05, 2022
Market is not ready for stagflation
18:42

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Today we look at the market reaction to surprisingly strong ISM Services survey for July, which was completely at odds with the very weak July S&P Global Services PMI. We also discuss the implications and lack of confidence in the meaning of a new record inversion of the yield curve yesterday, especially vis-a-vis the risk of complacent forward assumptions on inflation normalizing. In particular, the market appears totally unprepared for stagflationary outcomes. We also discuss Europe's rumbling energy crisis, key equity stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 04, 2022
Yield pop elicits complacent shrug from equities
18:52

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Today we note the surprisingly complacent shrug in the US equity market, particularly in the most speculative sectors, despite a significant pop in treasury yields as a trio of Fed officials made it clear that they are at odds with the market adjusting Fed policy expectations lower for next year. We also look at gold rolling over and what it will take to excite a new significant rally in the precious metal. We note China's reaction to House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and round up key equity stories, including Caterpillar's results and guidance and look at the earnings and macro data calendar for the rest of the week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 03, 2022
Taiwan tensions and a possible market pivot
21:27

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Today we ask whether yesterday's market session may prove an important market pivot as US treasury yields eased further but were unable to boost equities. Defense stocks were top performers yesterday as tensions over Taiwan are set to mount as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan on Wednesday. FX moves, stocks to watch, including Caterpillar's earnings report today, risks in China's property sector and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 02, 2022
Financial conditions in the driver’s seat
16:02

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Today we look at the US equity market wrapping up last week on a high note despite a bout volatility in the wake of a hotter than expected June US PCE inflation print. Financial conditions are in the driver's seat as the market continues to drive longer term US treasury yields lower and sees the Fed policy rate peaking for the cycle by early next year and easing eventually by perhaps mid-year, with tumbling credit spreads suggesting fears of a hard landing for the economy are easing. We're a bit less complacent. Upcoming earnings and the week ahead in macro data risks also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Aug 01, 2022
Careful what you wish for, market.
19:03

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Today we look at a weak Q2 US GDP estimate pumping up the market due to the softening of financial conditions, with a further pump in late trading on Amazon and Apple earnings reports. Today we remind listeners that in the big cycles past that actually did see a recession, the market found its bottom as the Fed struggled to ease enough to catch up with a deteriorating economy, so in cycle terms, the market should be a bit careful what it hopes for here. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 29, 2022
Market indulges in risk-on after weak Powell pushback
19:56

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at last night's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's unwillingness to push back strongly against market expectations for the path of Fed policy and really unwillingness to provide any guidance beyond data dependence. This sparked a strong risk-on rally as the market indulged in a complacent forecast for the path of inflation and the path for rates - something we would push back against strongly. Upcoming earnings, US-China relations and more on the pod. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 28, 2022
Leaning against the market’s lean into FOMC
22:39

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Plenty to talk about today as earnings season rages on, the natural gas emergency seems to get more dire by the day, and with a possible geopolitical storm brewing over US House leader Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan.  But most of all, the market will zero in on today's FOMC meeting, where the market is leaning for the Fed policy rate to peak within about six months and roll over rather aggressively next year - a rather pointed view relative to the Fed's own forecasts. How does Powell guide today relative to this pointed market view? John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 27, 2022
VIX below 25 with this backdrop? You must be kidding...
21:57

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Today we look at a very complacent market as Russia dangles the sword of Damocles over the Eurozone in the form of threats to further sever the supply of natural gas deliveries. Other risks this week include the blitz of earnings reports set to pick up sharply today as Microsoft and Alphabet will report after Walmart stunned the market after hours yesterday with a weak forecast that gutted that stock and other large retailer names. We also discuss the risk that the market is expecting too significant a downward shift in Fed rate guidance even if it does deliver the 75 basis points . Guiding us through the technical situation across a number of assets in today's pod is technical analysis strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 26, 2022
Huge week ahead on earnings and Fed guidance
20:29

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The podcast is finally back from holiday! Today we look at a huge week ahead for equities and rates as it is the busiest week for earnings reports of this season and as the Fed is set for its latest super-size hike even as the market pulls the peak Fed funds rate both forward and lower. We also look at rising recession concerns in both the US and Europe, the history of whether financial conditions are as important as the economic cycle in the market outlook, and much more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

 

Jul 25, 2022
USD breakout, commodities plunging, and equities love ’junk’
15:29

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Yesterday's session was quite a spectacle with commodities plunging 5% as the USD saw massive breakout against the EUR as punitive energy prices in Europe were igniting recession fears once again. With bond yields following commodities lower equities flows went into overdrive with commodity stocks naturally trading lower but the session evolved to a massive buy the worst performers this year and sell the best performers. In that world all the 'junk' pockets of equities rallied on the signal from commodities that a recession could be coming. July is typically a low liquidity month so moves can easily be amplified so remember this before putting too much weight on yesterday's moves. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 06, 2022
RBA hikes and inflation trades are back
16:27

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Bond yields are climbing together with global equities on the back of an upside surprise to inflation in South Korea and better than expected PMI figures out of China bolstering growth/inflation trades. RBA hiked 0.5% point taking the the cash rate to 1.35% lifting the AUD as the central bank is still aiming to cool the economy and inflation. We also talk about the natural gas situation in Europe, which is getting worse, and SAS filing for Chapter 11 in New York this morning after failing to strike a new deal with 1,000 pilots. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 05, 2022
Recession fears are pulling commodities and bond yields lower
15:13

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Recession fears are accelerating in markets pushing US yields down and Fed Funds futures are now pricing in an aggressive rate hike cycle until year-end before the Fed flips to cutting rates in 2023. Equities are responding positively in the short-term to lower interest rates but if a recession happens equities will continue to struggle. We also take a look at commodity markets and the negative signals about the economy that is coming from energy and industrial metals markets. Finally, we are talking about Tesla's Q2 deliveries declining q/q for the first time in two years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 04, 2022
Diving commodities prices the driver.
18:49

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Today we look at commodities markets in the driver's seat as industrial metals prices resumed their nosedive, precious metals are trading near key levels, and crude oil sold off steeply, which in turn set the path lower for global yields. All of this is supportive of the Japanese yen, which spiked since late yesterday in the wake of a hot June Tokyo CPI release. We also review the equity market performance of the first half of 2022, note that financial conditions are tightening viciously, discuss Micron's very bad earnings report, the forward outlook for Q2 earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jul 01, 2022
Regime shift in volatility. EU NatGas woes mount.
22:43

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Today we look at gathering gloom again overnight in equity markets and steep correction in oil markets yesterday, in part on US demand figures and possibly on rising concern of the impact of a new Covid wave. That concern is already washing over travel stocks. We also discuss the remarkable regime shift in volatility behavior in this cycle, credit strains flashing red, stocks to watch, the fresh aggravation of EU natural gas prices, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 30, 2022
Market rips into reverse. Evening star on Nasdaq 100.
20:44

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Today we look at the US equity market ripping into reverse, in part on a massive slide in the expectations component of the US June Consumer Confidence survey, which has the market marking down Fed expectations slightly and finding safe havens in the US dollar and even treasuries, to a degree. We also look at crude oil not yet really fretting the demand destruction outlook, grains, stocks to watch for the rest of the week, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 29, 2022
Eyeing quarter-end as next test for this market
20:52

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Today we remind of the upcoming quarter-end, both as the quarterly transition proved pivotal as Q1 yielded to Q2 and the equity market rolled over aggressively from a strong rally to a renewed and sustained sell-off. A look at conflicting signals from key commodities markets including copper, cotton and crude oil, discussion of Nike's outlook and the upcoming General Mills earnings, perspectives on today's June Consumer Confidence release and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 28, 2022
Technically and seasonally pivotal week ahead
18:54

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Today we discuss Friday's huge equity market rally and its likely proximate causes, especially the revision lower of a key US inflation expectations survey. Looking ahead, we consider the importance of the quarterly roll this week after a horrific quarter for equities as of last week's lows that may be driving rebalancing flows. As well, options exposures may be a key driver into quarter end. We also discuss the mounting impact of quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead, the outlook for the Q2 earnings season with a few interesting names reporting out-of-synch earnings this week, the US dollar and the macro calendar ahead as the ECB hosts a three day conference starting today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 27, 2022
Yield plunge lifts equities out of the abyss
18:41

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Today we look back at yesterday's historic session with big moves lower in the US and German 2-year yields responding to PMI figures for June indicating a more rapid decline in economic activity than estimated by economists. This is naturally lifting the recession probability and the timing of it causing safe-haven flows into bonds. The most interest rate sensitive parts of the equity market were the winners yesterday such as biotechnology and bubble stocks. Across currencies we observe weakness in the USD, AUD, and NOK reflecting lower economic activity, and the pressure is also coming of the JPY due to yesterday's rates move. On commodities we touch on the weakness in wheat and the tight physical market in oil. Other topics covered are the guidance cut from Zalando and container freight rates coming down. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 24, 2022
Don’t look now, here comes coal!
23:10

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Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 23, 2022
Commodities rout points to recession fears
20:39

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Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 22, 2022
BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla.
19:00

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Today we continue our discussion on where markets are headed over the summer: into a period of calm, driven by an easing of the rise in yields and hopes for cooling inflation as economic data softens, or are we set for more shocks ahead on a fresh rise in especially US yields and the associated pressure on global financial conditions and risk sentiment? We also look at the geopolitical risks for Tesla due to Elon Musk's non-Tesla activities, discuss falling commodity prices as copper trades at important support, fresh pressure on the JPY as BoJ is losing control of its balance sheet and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 21, 2022
Can bears go into hibernation for the summer?
20:19

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Today we look at the market hitting fresh lows late last week and debate whether some relief from falling bond yields and a sell-off in energy prices might bring some relief to this market, even if the sources of that relief are concerns that a recession is incoming. We also discuss inflationary pressures set to continue from the steep rise in US rents, look at crude oil and commodity performance broadly, the lay of the land in FX after a remarkable week, and where are are focusing on earnings and on the macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 20, 2022
The BoJ is not for turning.
22:27

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Today we discuss the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy stance overnight as it continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening, leading to a sharp new JPY weakening move. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's large hike yesterday, which has driven a tremendous CHF rally, not least in USDCHF. Also, weak US data drives a drop in US treasury yields, where is the equity market focus: bond yields per se or on recession risks? Natural gas, gold, crude oil, metals, stocks to watch, upcoming earnings reports and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 17, 2022
FOMC pump deflating fast. SNB beats ECB to the punch
22:31

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Today we look at what unfolded at last night's FOMC meeting, in which the Fed hiked the most since 1994 with the 75-basis-point increase to the policy rate, and how quickly the relief rally has faded this morning. An SNB rate hike of 50 basis points unfolded as we were recording the podcast - beating ECB to the punch. Is this a harbinger for the Bank of Japan capitulation on its policy, at least incrementally, tonight? We also look at the latest natural gas spike in Europe, crude oil selling off, factors holding back gold, the outlook for earnings and the US economy and more. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 16, 2022
Three days that could shake the world
26:11

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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 15, 2022
A new market low, but we have yet to see a panic phase
21:12

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Today we look at an ugly break to new lows for the cycle in equity markets as the market rushes to price in two 75 basis point moves from the Fed over the next two FOMC meetings, after Fed Chair Powell pushed back against larger hikes at the May FOMC meeting. We also look at the most tense policy situation across global markets, the Bank of Japan's yield-curve-control policy and offer perspectives on how to trade the situation. A look at Oracle's stellar results, VIX not yet showing any remarkable level of strain, latest on crude oil as Libya shuts in, gold and more on today' pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 14, 2022
Very very heavy
17:53

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Today we break down what spooked the market on Friday: the massive surge in US yields after the US CPI came in hotter than expected and not least, as the long-term inflation expectations in the preliminary June University of Michigan sentiment survey jumped to new highs. The US yield curve is suddenly close to inverting again after Fed expectations were marked sharply higher for coming meetings. We also look at concerns that Chinese serial lockdowns will continue to dog global supply chains from here, the risks in the crypto space aggravated by the unfolding meltdown, and a rocky ride ahead this week with multiple major central bank meetings on tap, headed by the Wednesday FOMC and whether Powell and company will have to re-up the hawkish stance. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 13, 2022
The unbearable tightness to be?
19:57

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Today we look at the market tilting hard to the downside in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday, after the meeting jolted EU interest rates higher, with a blowout in peripheral spreads spoiling the recent euro rally and sending the single currency tumbling by day's end. We also look at the market eyeing today's US CPI release with trepidation, as a strong core rate in particular could further spook markets on the need to price even more tightening from the Fed as hopes for inflation rolling over may be spoiled for now. Thoughts on grains, gold, Tesla in trouble and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 10, 2022
A pivotal ECB meeting today. Watching CNHJPY.
19:08

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Today we preview today's pivotal ECB meeting as rate expectations have rushed to new highs for the cycle this week in anticipation of the ECB's anticipated July rate lift-off, with the market divided on whether the ECB is ready to hike 50- or 25 basis points to initiate the tightening cycle at the July meeting. We also look at new highs for the cycle in crude oil yesterday, natural gas markets roiled by a fire at a US LNG facility, the ongoing JPY volatility (note CNHJPY at 20.00!), and important stocks to watch today, including Credit Suisse, Meta, Roku and DocuSign. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 09, 2022
Yen drop is outstripping fundamentals
22:30

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Today we discuss the market managing a comeback from a break of support yesterday as volatility drops to new local lows. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen moved aggressively lower despite a consolidation in global bond yields, an indication that speculative flows are taking over from the fundamental backdrop. We also break down the crude oil supply situation, developments in the uranium market, gaining exposure to rising inflation in rents via REITs and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 08, 2022
Yen spinning into the abyss on rising global yields.
19:53

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Today we look at a fresh pop in global yields helping to drive a sentiment shift lower, although financial conditions and volatility have yet to show any real new unease. We also look at the Lawrence Summers Group arguing that rents are a key inflation driver and that inflation risks becoming unanchored, requiring a real "Volcker moment" for the Fed to get ahead of the curve. Elsewhere, high energy prices are an important market risk, while metals are stumbling after a big pull higher in copper last week. In FX, the JPY is spinning into the abyss on the rise in global yields while sterling is in focus after Boris Johnson survived a leadership vote. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 07, 2022
Equities climb wall of inflation, yield rise worries
22:19

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Today we look at a market posting a strong session yesterday as it brushes aside the pressure from a fresh pop in commodity prices, especially crude oil, and the general rise in global bond yields. Market sentiment and the recently easing financial conditions and especially volatility face a key test today in the form of the latest US payrolls and earnings data and the May ISM Services survey. We also break down yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, which agreed on a production increase, but one that looks like political theater given that the cartel can't produce its current quotas. Copper popping higher, FX themes, earnings up next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 03, 2022
Yields jump back higher, curbing market enthusiasm
17:43

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Today we look at a surprisingly strong US ISM Manufacturing report for May helping to further boost the comeback in US treasury yields and capping a choppy equity market session in the US, with rather more important US data coming up tomorrow in the form of May payrolls and earnings and the ISM Services. Elsewhere, we look at the strong easing in financial conditions of the last couple of weeks, the important OPEC meeting today, key tech stocks that are getting their financial priorities in order, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 02, 2022
Cue QT as US yields the focus across markets through Friday US data
20:27

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Today we look at yesterday's choppy market session, which was buoyed off the lows by a crushing blow to Brent crude prices intraday on a story that OPEC may be ready to exempt Russia's production and allow for production increases from Saudi Arabia and other members. But is there really any spare capacity that can come online? We also look at strong US data points yesterday supporting the rise in US treasury yields and whether we are in for another narrative shift across markets if yields are set to rise further just after consensus was developing that yields had reached a major top. The dump lower in wheat prices, perspective on MongoDB ahead of its earnings report, FX and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jun 01, 2022
Crude awakening, Biden summons Powell to Oval Office
25:14

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x0MxP7   - 

Today we look at the huge fresh surge in crude oil prices as Europe moves ahead with further restrictions on Russian oil imports. This is providing a headwind for risk sentiment, as is a jump in US yields after the US Fed's Waller talked up several 50 basis point hikes and Biden summoned Fed Chair Powell for a rare meeting in the Oval Office today. In equities, we look at rebound behaviors within historic bear markets as this is now the 15th worst drawdown in US equity market history since 1929. Wheat, industrial metals, the USD and FX themes, corporate credit and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 31, 2022
Where does this squeeze get a nosebleed?
20:03

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Gubx4q   -

Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in China's covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class and risks to HUF, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 30, 2022
Special Edition: Are we set for one of the great bear markets of the century?
19:22

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wLrXkI   -

This Special Edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of Quant and Equity Strategy who offers his perspective on the status of the current US equity market drawdown and what makes it unlike any other market drawdown, relative to the current economic backdrop, since at least the 1980's and even the early 1970's. That's because we have nearly reached classic bear market status (a -20% drop from the top) even with a US economy that has yet to roll over and a Fed that is still bent on tightening policy further. We also look at why this drawdown is likely to achieve "top"-five status among bear markets of the last century as inflation is likely to continue even on any softening growth, preventing the kind of QE and rate cut response that has driven the levering up and serial asset price bubbles since the mid-late 1990's. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 27, 2022
Special Edition: Technical analysis with Kim Cramer Larsson
22:45

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sXgcq8   -

This Special Edition podcast features Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo's head of Technical Analysis who takes us through the technical chart outlook for a wide array of assets including the S&P 500, DAX, Brent Crude, US 10-year treasury yields, EURUSD and other FX pairs, with an eye on key support and resistance levels, trend status and a flexible outlook on scenarios that could develop from here.  This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 26, 2022
Bubble sectors are dragging hard on this market
27:41

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wQ5SBg   -

Today we look at the normally high-beta bubble sectors continuing to weigh very heavily on the US equity market, even as the S&P 500 managed to pull solidly off the lows yesterday. We continue to highlight the "Bermuda triangle" of Tesla-ArkInvest-Crypto as an ongoing contagion risk. We also look at the market impact of a trio of weak US economic data points, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, FX moves and the status of  the US dollar, upcoming earnings including Nvidia and Snowflake, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 25, 2022
Oh, SNAP!
21:38

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sS5am7   -

Today we look at the case of whiplash administered to the US equity market yesterday after a positive session in the US was spoiled after hours by a weak forecast from social media company SNAP, which has contributed to a general mark-down of US futures into the European trading session today. Elsewhere, we look at whether recession risks are over-estimated for the near term as PMI's suggest economic activity remains in expansion even as confidence has cratered. A breakdown of grains, crude oil and natural gas, earnings stories ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 24, 2022
Bounce unlikely to achieve more than dead cat status
21:26

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GdwCQK   -

Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 23, 2022
Framing the current equity market drawdown
23:11

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MyCd6t   -

Today we look at markets tip-toeing back away from the cycle lows, especially after a rate ease in China buoyed sentiment there. We also highlight a huge ongoing shift in portfolio allocations as a major Blackrock momentum fund (MTUM) is set for a massive rebalancing. And we put the current overall market drawdown in historic perspective, warning that investors need to zoom out to consider the 100-year timeframe rather than the merely the post-GFC one. Thoughts on industrial and precious metals, FX and the status of the US dollar rally as well as a preview of next week's earnings- and macro calendar also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 20, 2022
Market tilts back to the edge of the abyss.
22:21

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NpZd7O   -

Today we break down the worst session for US equities in over two years after another large US retailer, this time Target, saw its share price gutted after noting inflation driving rising margin pressures. As stocks are back at the precipice of key support, we take a look at next potential downside targets, the remarkable lack of a "normal" VIX forward curve given market stress at present, Tesla's Elon Musk becoming a loose cannon after Tesla kicked off the S&P 500's ESG index, look at JPY wrestling with the USD in FX, CAD concerns, crude oil, industrial metals and grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 19, 2022
Equities nearing pivotal resistance. US housing rolling over.
25:19

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lj2Nof   -

Today we break down the strong market session yesterday, with crypto-related names the star performer on a day that Bitcoin is still struggling to find separation from 30k, and with the market higher despite a fresh hawkish broadside from the Fed as Powell claimed the Fed won't hesitate to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral. Key short-term resistance is coming into view in US stocks and is already here in Europe. Elsewhere, we look at a worst in 35-year drop in Walmart on its profit forecast, discuss a misguided forecast on the housing market from Home Depot CEO after that company got a boost from its earnings report, look at evidence the from leading indicators showing that the US housing market is rolling over, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, earnings and macro data up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 18, 2022
Interesting divergences in a temporarily quiet market
22:48

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NfKsUQ   - 

Today we note the interesting and remarkable divergences in market internals yesterday despite the nominally uneventful session, one that saw VIX volatility continuing its freefall back into the range. We highlight widening corporate bond spreads as a concern, run through the latest on grain prices and copper, talk Tesla's weak performance, stocks and earnings to watch today, FX themes and gold, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 17, 2022
Catching knives a dangerous pastime
18:15

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sGvAab   -

Equity markets surged on Friday in what looks so far like a short squeeze as the market ran dry of fresh sellers, with the most speculative sectors backing up in spectacular fashion after Bitcoin and the Tether "stable coin" survived existential threats late last week. Today we look at fresh concerns on the outlook for global food prices as India has moved to ban wheat exports on weather related developments there, sending wheat limit up in Chicago. We also discuss the latest on Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition intentions, the weak ahead in earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 16, 2022
Markets are under siege, and volatility is only warming up
22:20

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3subXBY   -

Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesnt even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front, outside of coffee. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 12, 2022
Market slows the bleeding. Gold rally on life support.
21:30

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N361bd   -

Today we look at a pause in the equity market slide a day after the worst day for global equities in nearly two years, identify important resistance levels for the S&P 500, talk commodities from copper and gold (where the last gasp support has been tested) to natural gas and crude oil. We also highlight relative strength in the major currencies, the muted EURUSD countertrend price action, and run down the earnings and macro calendar for today. We continue to highlight the systemic risk in the crypto space if Bitcoin punches below 30k. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 11, 2022
Worst day for equities yet. (Un?)stable coins on the radar.
21:29

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MXQZTY   -

Today we look at the worst single day for global equity markets since 2020 as the major US average broke below key support.  Signs of poor liquidity abound, as the cryptocurrency space was in for a drubbing and one of the stable coins lost its grip on parity with the US dollar. We look at the US treasury yields, commodity developments from metals to energy and agriculture, key stocks to watch, especially Tesla as a bellwether, earnings head and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 10, 2022
The beatings will continue until morale improves
23:04

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3slgyqq   -

Today we look at the liquidity pressures keeping risk sentiment in the dumps as long US treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise. US equities are perched at the lows for the cycle once again and we wonder where any sustained relief will come from until the Fed eventually has to exercise its put, but unable to do so given its primary focus on inflation. We also look at forward return potential now that global equities have come down from extremes, commodity positioning and sentiment on China's Covid lockdown impacts, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 09, 2022
Markets tilt viciously back into distress mode
21:04

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LS5h8E   -

Today we look at the vicious swing back to risk aversion as the squeeze after a less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting failed even to hold for 24 hours. We ask whether Tesla is the last holdout for retail bulls and where to look for a technical capitulation there. We also discuss the implications of Chinese leader Xi doubling down on China's "dynamic zero Covid" policy, including on commodities, look at signs of a weak consumer sector in Europe, break down the ugly slide in sterling after an extremely downbeat Bank of England and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 06, 2022
Powell invokes Volcker, but has audacity to ease relative to expectations.
24:35

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LNyWzM   -

Today we look at the first dovish surprise (relative to expectations) from the Powell Fed in many months and the sharp short squeeze it inspired as we wonder if this is a mere kneejerk that will fade within days or if market sentiment could stabilize for a bit longer. Certainly, financial conditions and rising energy prices are tightening the noose on the global economy despite Powell's pussyfooting around. We also take a look at crude oil and natural gas, copper, supply chain concerns in China, BMW's outlook, Shopify and other earnings reports on the radar, FX and the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 05, 2022
Fed Chair Powell in the hottest of seats at tonight’s FOMC
19:15

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yd6Tpy   -

Today we look at the market trading on a nervous footing ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting as we all wonder what the meeting will deliver and how the market will react. In particular the size of the hike today and any guidance in the Q&A of the Powell press conference will be pivotal, as will be the reaction for both the long end and the short end of the US Treasury yield curve. We also break down the outlook for  crude oil and copper, preview the Bank of England tomorrow and discuss the many moving parts in equities as companies report and grapple with supply chain, and  in some cases, demand headwinds. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 04, 2022
Special Edition with Steen Jakobsen
34:38

Today's special edition podcast, recorded May 2, features an interview with Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the current lay of the land across markets, discussing the funk equity investors find themselves in as they await this week's FOMC meeting, how far the Fed is ready to take policy tightening, USD liquidity challenges and therefore challenges for global liquidity, the ongoing impact from the war in Ukraine, the hapless Bank of England and headwinds for the UK economy, deglobalization and limits of the physical world, China and more. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 03, 2022
Markets on tilt with FOMC meeting up midweek
18:46

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vxzofF   -

Today we look at a very ugly close to markets on Friday, as the rally attempt in the wake of Amazon's  negative shocker late Thursday faltered and markets closed right at the downside tipping point ahead of this week and the much anticipated FOMC meeting up on Wednesday. We also look at why semiconductors have underperformed, signs of limitation in the physical world, including on food, positioning in commodities, the Aussie ahead  of tonight's RBA meeting and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

May 02, 2022
Sentiment bounces, but Amazon...
24:37

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OJdVbo   -

Today we look at whiplash for US equity traders as sentiment rallied strongly yesterday from depressed levels, only to have a ton of bricks dropped on the market by a very weak Amazon report, all while hopes for Chinese stimulus in the background drove strong sentiment in Asia. We also discuss Apple's supply chain concerns, the outlook for energy given the ongoing lack of investment, fresh spikes in fuel prices, financial conditions, a big week ahead for macro as the FOMC announcement is up next Wednesday, with today's US PCE inflation data for March one of the last big macro data points ahead of that meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 29, 2022
Dollar danger, Meta bounce in a heavy market. Apple on tap.
20:25

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kj2poX   -

Today we look at a US equity market that posted a nervy session yesterday, with a surge after the close from less bad Meta news than feared. We still assess that the market is trading heavily, with additional danger from a surging US dollar as USDJPY surged to new 20-year highs on the Bank of Japan doubling down on its yield-curve-control policy and therefore deepening its loss of control over its balance sheet. We also look at more earnings ahead, including Apple and Amazon tonight, edible oil prices a concern for global food inflation, gold, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 28, 2022
Equities capitulate to the brink.
21:37

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KkpZMR   -

Today we look at a US equity market that capitulated to the lows of the year, with sentiment worsening late on an earnings miss from Google parent Alphabet after the close. Elsewhere, the euro dropped to new five-year lows versus the US dollar this morning as Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies if importers refuse to pay in rubles, with supplies into Poland and Bulgaria disrupted today. We look at Chinese stimulus hopes after Xi comments overnight, more earnings in focus today, key FX themes and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 27, 2022
Earnings blitz kicks off today in shadow of liquidity concerns
21:43

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Kiig1A   -

Today we look at the market posting a bounce yesterday, but one that has yet to impress or significantly turn back the recent ugly acceleration in negative momentum. Today marks the start of a remarkable blitz in quarterly earnings reports, with key names like Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa reporting after the close, but many interesting other names that touch on key equity themes reporting before and during the US session later today. A look at crude oil, copper, grains, FX themes and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 26, 2022
China’s FX moves supercharging developments
20:54

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xL3uhs   -

Today we look at the market sell-off extending, in part on fresh concerns of widening covid lockdowns in China, this time potentially in the capital Beijing, as commodity prices sell-off steeply and risk sentiment continued lower after Friday's very weak close. We also discuss China's agenda as it viciously weakens its currency, the outlook for grains as speculators are very one-sided in key markets, the outlook for earnings season and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 25, 2022
The bottom just dropped out of this market
19:10

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EBF5Mu   -

Today we assess the sudden and alarming deterioration in risk sentiment as headlines attribute much of the move to fresh hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who called the US labor market "unsustainably hot" yesterday. We look at the technical capitulation in the Nasdaq 100 index, the failure of recent equity investment themes like commodities to provide some defense against the broad selling pressure yesterday, gold's relative quiet actually very impressive in this environment, crude oil, grains, FX themes and the week ahead for earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 22, 2022
EUR relief rally, Tesla impresses again
17:48

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3v1dwZZ   -

Today we look at the euro trying to piece together a rally as the Le Pen-Macron debate ahead of the Sunday election run-off was seen as a victory for Macron. As well, we break down yet another impressive quarterly earnings and deliver performance from Tesla, which has shown an impressive ability to expand margins. Earnings previews, the latest on crude oil and product supply tightness, FX themes and more on today's pod, which features Christopher Dembik on macro and France,  Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 21, 2022
Where have all the bulls gone?
20:38

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M8KIEG   -

Today we assess a strong market comeback yesterday on little news, but certainly with a strong dip in crude oil prices providing a bit of a tailwind, as well, perhaps as an incredible lack of bullish sentiment according to at least one weekly US survey. We also discuss the prospects for Netflix after the company announced a drop in subscribers and shares were marked down heavily in after hours trading late yesterday. The sharp weakening move in CNH, whether CHF is set to move sharply in the wake of the French presidential run-off this Sunday, gold and crude oil, more earnings previews and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 20, 2022
Equity markets are down heavily - against commodities.
22:04

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JOz4NC   -

Today we remind equity traders to keep in mind that nominal equity prices are one thing as the Nasdaq 100 index in the US, for example, manages to hang on near pivotal levels, while equity levels versus something like a basket of commodities paint a very different picture. We also look at the latest moves in the key commodities, preview the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 19, 2022
Special edition featuring Christopher Dembik
28:00

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uySr8Z   -

Today's special edition podcast features Saxo Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik, who takes us through his latest thoughts on the upcoming second round of the French presidential election, the outlook for the French political landscape after the June legislative election and the ECB's challenges on the stagflationary Euro Zone economic outlook. A few thoughts on EM and other topics on this special edition pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 14, 2022
Does the strong USD eventually require the Fed to cap long yields?
27:58

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rjR24k   -

Today's podcast features Saxo CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen as we look at the dangers for equities given the backdrop of de-globalization and pressures from rising rates, discuss what the Fed may have to do if long treasury yields rise much further and what that could mean for the US dollar. We also discuss the outlook for Europe and the euro and much more. This pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 13, 2022
For stocks, is this 2008 USA or 1922 Germany or 1923 Germany?
18:18

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38Lgauf   -

Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is a one-man show with John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 12, 2022
Many irons in the fire even as French election fails to add to volatility.
23:29

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DYjcqo   -

Today we run down the factors that are pressuring market sentiment, even as the first round of the French Presidential election failed to trigger any immediate further EU existential concerns as the results largely were in line with expectations. Still, the second round is not a done deal for Macron, as we discuss on today's pod in breaking down voter intentions for the second round, Le Pen's strong momentum and her appeal to younger voters and possibly to many undecided voters in the final instance. Today's pod features Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 11, 2022
Gray rhino watching in France this weekend
20:16

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/37yqHIM   -

Today we discuss the French presidential election risk exploding onto the market's radar screens this week and the gap-risk for the euro and other assets over the weekend if the right populist Le Pen posts a strong showing in the first round. Any indication that Le Pen has rising odds of becoming the next French president is a proper Gray Rhino event that would act as a powerful check on the recent EU narrative of tighter EU integration post the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will have European investors holding their collective breath over the next two weeks until the second round vote. We also talk crude oil, natural gas at near-14-year highs in the US, grains, earnings season kicking off next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 08, 2022
The great twin tightening is barreling down on us
19:27

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DRPTpt   -

Today we look at the continued pressure on risk sentiment after the FOMC minutes show the Fed discussing a rapid pace of quantitative tightening that is set to phase in after the May 4 FOMC meeting and, together with US treasury net issuance, will mean an annual run rate of $2-2.5 trillion in liquidity tightening for financial markets. Financial conditions have been responding accordingly, a dangerous development for equity markets if the tightening continues apace. The US dollar has jumped back higher over the last couple of sessions against riskier currencies and the oil market may be responding to that as well as to demand reductions from Chinese lockdowns and an incoming flood of supply from further reserve releases. Copper, Facebook and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 07, 2022
Brainard threatens rapid QT starting in May
16:48

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LBaW2m   -

Today we look at the US equity market advance getting checked yesterday by a hawkish broadside from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who invoked Paul Volcker in a speech on the unequal impacts of inflation on US households and the need to bring inflation down to the 2% area, as she guided for a May kick-off to quantitative tightening that will procced "considerably more rapidly" than in the 2017-19 tightening. (This on top of the market already pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike). US treasury yields, financial conditions, stock sectors in focus and more are also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 06, 2022
How high can the froth take us?
21:15

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DDwhW9   -

Today we look at a frothy US equity market as traders react to Elon Musk's move to acquire a significant portion of Twitter, Cathie Wood and the absurd idea of $12 oil, the irony of easing market conditions when key financial conditions are rapidly tightening and are set to tighten further in the months ahead. We also look at falling container rates, the latest on the crude oil and wheat outlook, what is moving FX, including the Australian dollar, nominal equity market returns versus real returns and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 05, 2022
Quiet before the storm as commodity pressures mount
13:15

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DzlAUx   -

Today we look at equities staging a rebound on the back of Friday's strong economic data in the US and Russian retreat across the entire Northern front line in the war in Ukraine setting the war up for the "battle of Donbass" over the next month. The unfolding food and energy crisis is becoming tough for frontier economies and Sri Lanka is right now the canary in the coal mine with food shortages and a collapsing equity market. We also talk about the risks to Europe's energy markets as Russia continues to demand to be paid in RUB for oil and gas breaching contracts with European importers. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 04, 2022
Europe under (too much?) pressure. Understanding the ruble exchange rate.
23:05

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38cTvGN   -

Today we look at the euro brushed back lower on dovish ECB talk and Putin's demands for sanctioning countries to "pay for gas in rubles". Also, while the outlook is dim for EU economic growth, at what point are relative European equity valuations simply too cheap to ignore? Elsewhere, the US tries to impress the oil market with a massive reserve release that may be too massive to physically get to market at the intended pace, we are concerned that not enough wheat will be planted this year. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Apr 01, 2022
Fed credibility on the line. Financial conditions are both tight and loose.
29:53

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JYPpA4   - 

Today we look at Fed credibility on the line in coming days with the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE Deflator and Core levels for February is set for release later today and the March payrolls and earnings data is up tomorrow. The backdrop of financial conditions is a mixed bag, with market measures showing easing and a lack of Fed credibility while higher rates point to a significant tightening. Will the Fed respond to market conditions? We also look at EU yields, Russian default risks, US possibly set to release strategic reserves to push oil prices lower ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting and the most important planting report in years from the USDA later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 31, 2022
Last chance saloon for Nasdaq 100 bears?
16:56

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LvaJ0F   -

Today we look at the US Nasdaq 100 index trading up against the "final" major resistance level as markets enthused yesterday on supposedly hopeful developments in Ukraine-Russia peace talks. We note that the commodity markets are the most important to watch for the reaction function, with no real change to the status quo after yesterday's volatility. Also, we note quarter-end effects possibly already in full swing here, key equity stories, including Apple eyeing all time highs on its hardware subscription plans and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 30, 2022
The Fed vs. Market showdown is now fully engaged
15:25

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qJiZlF   -

Today we look at animal spirits continuing their comeback, with signs of aggressive risk-taking in the most speculative corners of the market that many had written off until this latest surge. As rising yields are not yet pressuring real rates, the implications of rising nominal yields and quickly flattening yield curves are more muted than in previous cycles. Clearly, the Fed has its work cut out for if it wants to avoid a raging new speculative bubble, and it's a long wait until the May 4 FOMC meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 29, 2022
Yield rise accelerates. When do the consequences arrive?
21:31

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qHZ5r5   

Today we look at the latest acceleration higher in US treasury yields, with significant portions of the US yield curve now inverted, which often precedes an eventual recession, if with a highly variable lag. Also, as yields rise, the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan's policy of capping bond yields, with the BoJ out overnight intervening to keep yields from rising, helping to trigger yet another leg lower in the nose-diving Japanese yen. We also look at commodity volatility, key equity stories and the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 28, 2022
Quarter end rushing into view as markets at tipping point
18:45

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LccMqa   -

Today we look at the US market poised at critical market resistance as the Powell Fed has yet to get ahead of the curve, constantly one step behind. If the market doesn't roll over here, the risk could rise of an escalation from the Fed to establish credibility. We imagine what that could look like while also mulling the current status of financial conditions, risks of portfolio rebalancing into quarter end after a brutal quarter for bonds and fresh signs of an extremely tight US labor market. Preview of earnings and macro calendar event risks for next week and more are also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 25, 2022
The 1994 Greenspan Fed versus the 2022 Powell Fed
20:37

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LdAmTg    -

Today we compare and contrast the 1994 rate hike cycle under Chair Greenspan, a highly pre-emptive cycle that managed a a soft landing, with the 2022 Fed cycle, which sees the Fed badly behind and needing to chase to catch up with the curve. We also look at next key levels for US treasury yields, noting a very strong 20-year treasury auction yesterday, look at select hydrogen names, NIO, a busy macro calendar today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 24, 2022
A dangerous game.
20:06

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wqnHIJ   -

Today we look at whether the markets and the Fed are engaged in a "dangerous game" as the Fed continues to ratchet its rhetoric in the direction of ever more hawkishness and yet somehow remains behind the curve as the market continues to climb. Eventually, the Fed must catch up to recapture the credibility that continues to elude it. We drill down into specific equity stories like Adobe and NVidia, look at the historical market performance under varying financial conditions and assess the latest on crude oil and food commodities at risk from the war in Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen  on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 23, 2022
Until something breaks...
22:48

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CZhqVI   -

Today we look at Fed Chair Powell once again upping the hawkish ante as he guided the market on the potential for multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, and therewith lifting the entire US yield curve aggressively. We look at whether this Fed is set to tighten policy "until something breaks" and perhaps is surprised at how little is so far breaking despite the backdrop, with equities particularly resilient. We also look into key equity stories from Nike and Boeing to Chinese names and Adobe, the risk of Russian default and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 22, 2022
Pivotal week ahead after massive bear squeeze last week
18:09

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3woFAHY   -

Today we break down last week's remarkable comeback in global equity markets, although one that still leaves many prominent sectors down on the month-to-date. An extra focus on commodities today as the trauma suffered in the markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered not only tremendous volatility, but a significant reduction in open interest. The US dollar is also at a pivotal spot after last week's action. This and more in today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 21, 2022
Massive options witching today to see market pivot?
20:44

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CRCZat    -

Today we wonder whether the witching of colossal options exposure in the US will provide a market pivot, we look at portions of the US yield curve inverting, dovish BoE guidance, a massive dovish blast from the Bank of Japan, FedEx demonstrating the difficult operating environment as margin pressures weigh, freight rates, crude oil, earnings and macro calendar next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 18, 2022
Fed waxes hawkish, short squeeze continues
21:27

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/363MozS   -

The Fed hiked 25 basis points as expected, but guided fairly hawkish, especially on its dot plot of forecasts for 2023 and in signaling that QT could be set to begin as soon as the May meeting, and at a pace that would be faster than the previous tightening in 2017-19. While equities somehow squeezed higher, we remain very cautious. We also look at falling wheat prices, the gold rebound attempt, FX reaction to the FOMC, key equity stories including FedEx earnings up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 17, 2022
This market is deep in la-la land
22:49

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JjMB07   -

Today we wax extremely cautious on the market, which has too aggressively climbed the wall of worry of late even if we were to pretend that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not happened (many market have come full circle since that momentous and tragic event). That's because we also need to consider the implications of a much tighter Fed going forward, starting with tonight's FOMC meeting, margin pressures and other factors. We also look at worrying signs of market dysfunction, from the recent Nickel blow-up, to chaos in a VIX-tracking ETF and commodity traders struggling to raise enough capital. The three worry-warts on today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 16, 2022
The ”everything is falling” market
23:33

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcoXmj   -

Today we look at "everything down" as bonds, stocks and commodities are all generally selling off, a remarkable backdrop as we barrel into tomorrow's FOMC meeting with yields near or at cycle highs along the entire US yield curve. We also discuss crude oil and related products amidst signs of demand destruction, equity sectors that have perhaps yet to absorb the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Volkswagen's results and outlook, Russia heading toward a debt default, currencies and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 15, 2022
Challenging week ahead with FOMC and Ukraine risks
17:29

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CCzchi   -

Today we are discussing China's lockdown of Shenzhen, Tencent's 10% plunge in Hong Kong trading, FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, JPY weakness being a commodity importer, Nickel contracts on LME still being closed today, gold's recent weakness despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Volkswagen earnings and takeover rumours of Just Eat Takeaway Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 14, 2022
ECB turns hawkish, US CPI gallops, and Chinese tech skids
18:23

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pSKokv   -

Financial markets are settling down compared to the past two weeks' volatility but de-risking going into the weekend is very a theme that could dominate today's price action. Chinese technology stocks are today's biggest mover down 5% in Hong Kong as the SEC announced yesterday five Chinese ADRs (Chinese stock listings in the US) that could be delisted if they do not comply with the new US auditing rules for foreign companies; in total 270 Chinese companies are at risk of delisting. In today's podcast we also talk about ECB's hawkish surprise and the galloping US inflation impacting the US yield curve. In commodities we look at a hectic week including the blowup in nickel LME futures. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 11, 2022
Risk sentiment rips ahead of ECB
19:48

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hU8Iy7   -

Today we look at a robust bounce in risk sentiment on arguably rather dubious triggers yesterday, as oil prices plunged over 20 dollars at one point, the bottom fell out of gold, and the euro and European equities sharply extended their bounce from cycle lows earlier this week. We also preview today's ECB meeting, look at the potential impact on green transformation stocks and EU sovereign bonds from the new EU fiscal push, discuss rising yields and credit spreads, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 10, 2022
Ripple effects from commodities volatility continue
16:50

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tA3g9a    -

Today we look at the ongoing chop-fest in equities, with Chinese equities roiled heavily overnight after the US closed at a new cycle low yesterday, but with Europe trying to put a brave face on the situation this morning. We assess exposures to Russian exports after the UK and US moved to ban Russian oil imports. We also discuss the financial risk as even natural hedgers are getting margin calls on their hedging of physical production, the latest sectors under pressure as jet fuel prices skyrocket, EU joint debt issuance plans boosting the euro and peripheral currencies, the earnings and macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 09, 2022
US capitulation, Nickel madness, EU joint debt blast
23:03

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mz3ea8   -

Today we look at the continuing wild ride for global markets as commodities price movements have become so extreme that things are beginning to break in places - especially in the Nickel market, where a short squeeze triggered a shutdown as we were recording the podcast. We also looked at the live market reaction while recording to news of a massive new joint EU debt issuance that drove a sharp sentiment shift this morning in Europe. A dive into energy themes, wheat, Russian default risks, US treasuries and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 08, 2022
Commodity price spike risks financial crisis and recession
15:37

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35BYFvd   -

Today we look at the impact of a further spike in energy prices as European natural gas trades at impossible levels and global crude oil prices jump on talks of a ban of Russian crude oil imports. In particular, we flag the risk of not only a real growth recession if energy prices stay here or head higher, but also a financial crisis. Food price rises are even more alarming on humanitarian concerns. How the situation is filtering into FX markets and the particularly slow-to-react US equity market also in focus. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 07, 2022
Wheat price spike turning dire
21:16

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbnKZL   -

Today we look at the lay of the land as Russia's assault on Ukraine continues, especially the dire impact in the wheat market, which has lurched into an historic spike as the market goes limit up in Chicago overnight. We also look at the ongoing impact in energy markets, the curious lack of overall weak risk sentiment in equities despite strong signs of risk aversion in some of our indicators, today's US jobs report and macro data and earnings releases next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 04, 2022
Commodities are searching for the breaking point
21:06

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KflenU    -

Uncertainty is still extremely high with key commodity markets across coal, natural gas, oil and wheat going vertical hitting companies and households around the world. We have entered the phase where these commodity prices are causing real demand destruction and raising the probability of a recession. We also talk about the rebound in equities amid potential new peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and Powell's speech that the US economy can absorb higher interest rates. Overnight, MSCI and Russell have decided to remove all Russian equities from their equity benchmark indices effective 9 March with the value of all Russian equities being put at zero on 7 March. On bonds we cover the recent volatility and pricing of rate hikes both in the US and Europe. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 03, 2022
We are not buying this dip
19:50

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IDrg1h    -

Today we look at energy markets soaring as "self-sanctioning" is taking hold in much of the oil market as importers and refiners refuse to load Russian oil cargoes, and as other countries are rushing out of Russian exposure. In equities, we maintain a very cautious stance as markets need to be careful in trying to anticipate coming easing measures to address systemic concerns triggered by the destruction of Russian assets in the global banking system. Risks for the euro, where we are focusing in equities, caution on crypto and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 02, 2022
The rush out of Russia.
16:25

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35IPhFW   -

Today we look at markets trying to maintain a positive mood despite the terrible realities on the ground in Ukraine, the widening rush by companies to disassociate themselves with Russia, signs of systemic risk cropping up in the banking system, the commodity focus in FX, a warning for the crypto crowd, whether markets are justified in marking the Fed terminal rate lower as Fed Chair Powell set for two days of testimony before Congress tomorrow and Thursday in the wake of tonight's State of the Union address and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mar 01, 2022