Establish the Edge Fantasy Football

By Fantasy Football

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Description

Looking to step out and compete beyond your home fantasy football league? Mike Leone and guests cover a wide range of topics for serious players, including strategies for Best Ball, high-stakes formats like FFPC, NFFC, Dynasty Leagues, and more. This podcast is for players looking to go deeper -- and find their edge.

Episode Date
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 6: NFC North with Ben Gretch
4504

In Part 6 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Davante Adams and Aaron Jones profit potential if Rodgers return
-Ben mistaking a Rodgers Tweet about the Milwaukee Bucks as confirmation of his return to the Packers
-Is D'Andre Swift a RB dead zone exception?
-Adam Thielen - 5th round value or aging WR to avoid?
-Justin Fields' upside

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Jul 22, 2021
Legendary RB Upside and Rookie WR Profit with Pat Kerrane
4474

Pat Kerrane is welcomed back to the Establish the Edge podcast with open arms. Pat and host Mike Leone discuss two of Pat's excellent articles with NBC Sports Edge, their impact on our redraft strategy, and how the applications are a bit different between managed and best ball leagues.

More specifically the duo discuss:
-Ezekiel Elliott's unique distribution of potential outcomes and his value as a result
-Antonio Gibson's league winning upside
-The Cam Akers injury breaking live on air
-Rookie WRs putting up profitable seasons via efficiency
-Why the uncertainty around rookie WRs is important to target, especially in managed formats

Pat's Articles:
Early Round RBs Need Legendary Upside: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rbs-need-legendary-upside

Rookie WRs Are Winning Best Ball Leagues: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/rookie-wrs-are-winning-best-ball-leagues

Jul 21, 2021
Best Ball and Managed League Differences with Adam Levitan
1541

Mike Leone and Adam Levitan go over the differences between best ball leagues and managed leagues. On the surface there are two similar games, but as you dig deeper the differences between the two formats necessitate pretty dramatic shifts in strategy.


Timestamps:
How waivers changes draft approach (1:59) | 
How streaming changes draft approach (5:18) | 
Roster construction in Managed Leagues (7:15) | 
WRs in managed leagues vs Best Ball (9:58) | 
QBs in managed leagues vs. Best Ball (12:53) | 
Predicting explosion games in manage d league (15:54) | 
Is “best ball player” really a thing? (18:00) | 

Jul 20, 2021
Underdog Best Ball Mania Stream with Drew Dinkmeyer
3477

Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer attempt to take down the $1million Underdog Best Ball Mania 2 grand prize. The pair live stream their draft, giving micro analysis of their team as well as macro insights into how to best attack this tournament.

Full Video Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0GerW7osOg

NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner

For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/


Jul 19, 2021
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 5: NFC South with Ben Gretch
5443

In Part 5 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the NFC South and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Ronald Jones is undervalued
-Atlanta was the nut landing spot for Kyle Pitts
-Both DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are targets at ADP
-What does life without Drew Brees look like for the Saints?

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Jul 18, 2021
The Late Round QB Strategy with JJ Zachariason
2192

JJ Zachariason of FanDuel/NumberFire joins Mike Leone to talk about the evolution of the QB position in season-long fantasy football.

JJ  popularized the late round QB (LRQB) strategy nearly a decade ago, but the 2020 season shined a light on a group of second-tier elite QBs who both separated more from their peers than in previous seasons and did so in a somewhat predictable way based on their ADP.

JJ and Mike analyze that 2020 season and discuss:
-Is LRQB dead?
-Will that pool of second-tier elite QBs expand as teams embrace more pass aggressiveness and more QB rushing?
-Why streaming is a part of the LRQB strategy but not synonymous with it
-3 pockets of the draft where it makes sense to draft QBs and who those QBs are

You can read more about JJ and Mike's thoughts about the QB position in 2021 in articles written for their perspective sites:
-JJ on "Is the Late-Round Quarterback Strategy Dead?": https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/38979/fantasy-football-is-the-late-round-quarterback-strategy-dead
-Mike on "Late-Round QB is Back": https://establishtherun.com/late-round-qb-is-back/

You can follow Mike on Twitter at @2hats1mike and JJ at @LateRoundQB.

Jul 13, 2021
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 4: AFC East with Ben Gretch
4531

In Part 4 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC East and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Stefon Diggs as the overall WR1
-The market being too harsh on the Jets
-Hunter Henry as an undervalued TE target
-Whether or not Jaylen Waddle is a draft target in a crowded WR room

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Jul 12, 2021
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 3: AFC West with Ben Gretch
5379

In Part 3 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC West and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-What to expect from the KC WRs outside of Tyreek Hill
-Why the Raiders offense will regress
-Austin Ekeler's high end upside despite an unclear goal line role
-KJ Hamler as the best "Best Ball" value of the Broncos WRs

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Jul 11, 2021
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 2: AFC North with Ben Gretch
5104

In Part 2 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone analyze the AFC North and turn their projections process into actionable advice.

More specifically, the pair dive into:
-Why the Browns passing offense could be more explosive this season
-How to deal with an outlier team like the Baltimore Ravens
-The wide range of outcomes on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense
-Why it's wheels up for Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Boyd stacks in 2021

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Timestamps
Cleveland Browns Projections 01:55
Baltimore Ravens Projections 25:53
Pittsburgh Steelers Projections 54:59
Cincinnati Bengals Projections 1:08:22

Jul 02, 2021
ETE PROJECTIONS SPECIAL Part 1: AFC South with Ben Gretch
5825

In Part 1 of a special offseason projection series, Ben Gretch and Mike Leone talk about their projections process, the pros and cons of projections, and how to maximize actionable information when making projections.

After this high level conversation, the pair dive into their AFC South Projections, including:
-The impact of Julio Jones on the Titans from a fantasy perspective
-How to deal with spread out target shares in the Colts offense
-Why Laviska Shenault may still be undervalued
-Whether or not anyone on the Houston Texans is worth drafting

Please make sure to check out Ben's work over at https://bengretch.substack.com/ and Mike's work at https://establishtherun.com/.

Timestamps
Projections Podcast Intro 00:18
Tennessee Titans Projections 21:26
Indianapolis Colts Projections 52:40
Jacksonville Jaguars Projections 1:08:44
Houston Texans Projections 1:25:05

Jun 23, 2021
Underdog Best Ball Tournament Review with Adam Levitan and Justin Herzig
2692

Adam Levitan, Justin Herzig, and Mike Leone review an ETR subscriber's Best Ball Mania draft. The trio diagnose what went right. what went wrong, and teach viewers the best way to approach this tournament.

In this show we discuss:
- High level strategy for the Best Ball Mania II tournament
- How to structure a team correctly
- Player evaluations and takes

Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96a5wimjvdo

NOTE: All ETR Draft Kit subscribers will get a free credit (up to $35) to use on Underdog Fantasy: https://underdogfantasy.com/?_branch_match_id=835499789598948157&utm_source=partner

For details, click here: https://establishtherun.com/how-to-claim-your-free-10-underdog-fantasy-credit/

Jun 21, 2021
Dynasty Startup Tips with Anthony Amico
2273

Mike Leone and Anthony Amico talk macro strategy for Dynasty Startup drafts.

-Know Your League Settings (studs and duds drafting or drafting for depth)

-Have A Goal In Mind (create dynamics where a pocket of players have more value to you than the rest of your league)

-Understand Premium Assets (know your league mates to ensure you draft players whose trade value will hold up over time - always be liquid!)

-Fade RBs Early (RBs have shorter, less predictable shelf lives than QB and WR)

-Don't Be Afraid to Deal Future Picks (sell future picks and employ a win now and in the future strategy by stockpiling young talent)

You can read Anthony's full article on the subject here: https://establishtherun.com/5-tips-for-dynasty-startup-drafts/

Jun 17, 2021
Best Ball Tournament Strategy with Erik Beimfohr
3276

Mike Leone talks with Erik Beimfohr of RotoGrinders about translating his contrarian and successful DFS mindset to best ball tournaments. More specifically the two talk about:

-The market overvaluing projectible volume
-When to draft your tournament teams
-Why extreme strategies are the best strategies in drafts
-Why drafting different than your league mates is important
-Antonio Gibson as the easiest Round 2 upside bet
-The 49ers unique upside and potential to lead the league in points scored
-Small edges you can take advantage of via playoff schedules

Here is a link to Mike's RB strategy this year in best ball tournaments: https://establishtherun.com/leone-best-ball-rb-strategy/

Jun 14, 2021
RB Dead Zone and RB Upside with Jack Miller
2276

Mike brings on Jack Miller of Establish The Run to discuss the RB Dead Zone and RB Upside. Jack tells us what the RB Dead Zone means and why we should generally avoid RBs in Rounds 3-6 in favor of WRs. Jack also helps us to quantify late-round RB upside and why the market has it wrong. Mike and Jack use this information to find some RBs we should be targeting this season in best ball and some we should be fading.

Jack's RB Dead Zone Article: https://establishtherun.com/miller-the-running-back-dead-zone/

Jack's RB Dead Zone Fades and Exceptions: https://establishtherun.com/miller-running-back-dead-zone-fades/

Jack's RB Upside Article: https://establishtherun.com/miller-a-price-sensitive-definition-of-upside/

Jun 07, 2021
Lessons Learned: The Kerrane Farewell Episode
3057

Mike and Pat discuss their favorite moments from doing the ETE pod together. Mike shares the new format of the show going forward. Pat tries to invent a new structural strategy on his way out the door.

Jun 04, 2021
Revised RB Strategies in Best Ball
3560

Mike discusses his dynasty auction startup and Pat shares some news.

Then Pat asks Mike about the findings from his newest best ball article on hyperfragile and zero RB in best ball. Pat tries really hard to invent the hyperRojo strategy. Mike co-signs on Pat's rookie QB fever.

May 25, 2021
2021 Rookie Rankings (Part 2)
2855

Pat and Mike talk through the rest of the rookie class. Including QB fliers, deep WR targets, a trip down Saints memory lane, and more Rashod Bateman talk (somehow). 

May 07, 2021
2021 Rookie Rankings (Part 1)
4066

Pat and Mike talk through the rookie class. Including discussion of the SF QB tiers, Najee Harris, Rashod Bateman, Javonte Williams, Davonta Smith, Terrace Marshall, Trey Sermon, Michael Carter and the rest of Pats top 24 rookies.

May 05, 2021
Dynasty Startup Recap
3677

Pat and Mike share their thoughts on their latest dynasty draft: Superflex, TE Premium from the 1.09. Including thoughts on the rookie class, and advanced tactics for startups.

Draft board: http://myffpc.com/FFPCDraftBoard.aspx?refid=1F9-8946D278C778 

Apr 20, 2021
Thoughts on the 21 Rookie Class for Superflex Dynasty
3786

Mike and Pat discuss the 2021 rookie class and how they think the first round of 2021 rookie drafts will shake out, including thoughts on the top 4 QB and overall Superflex strategy.

Then Pat gets Mike's thoughts on Aaron Jones dynasty value now that he's back with GB.

Apr 02, 2021
SHIP CHASING CROSSOVER: Stacking Research and Best Ball Live Draft
5204

Pat and Mike jump on the Ship Chasing YouTube Channel to dive into Mike's upcoming article series on Establish The Run covering stacking strategies in best ball leagues--including what positions to stack, how to prioritize which QBs you stack with and if it's possible to stack a team without the QB.

They then live draft and underdog tournament team, implementing those stacking and team construction strategies. 

Mar 11, 2021
DEEP DIVE: NBA TopShot with Justin Herzig
4424

Mike and Pat are joined by Justin Herzig of Establish The Run and the newly launched Own The Moment podcast and website.

Justin discusses why he jumped into TopShot so quickly and why he thinks it's here to stay. He also shares his thoughts on how to find undervalued moments, loading up on specific moments vs. spreading out buys, how much weight to put on serial number, how to play the Cool Cats challenge, and long term vs short term buying strategy.

Justin also points out some undervalued players and shares some tips for scooping value that won't have you breaking your F5 key like Pat.

Make sure to follow @JustinHerzig  for awesome fantasy and TopShot content and make sure to follow @OwnTheMomentNFT with alerts on because they tweet out the pack drops... and we need to know about those packs.

Feb 26, 2021
Early 2021 Redraft Planning: Quarterback
2965

Mike and Pat discuss their thoughts on how QB ADP and strategy is likely to play out in 2021. Will Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson's ADP fall? Will drafters be scared off of Russell Wilson? Will Pat ever stop drafting Justin Herbert? And, has the overall strategy around QB shifted from where it was 3-4 years ago?

Jan 14, 2021
NFL Playoffs Fantasy Special (Featuring Adam Levitan and Evan Silva)
3416

Pat and Mike are joined by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva to discuss playoff fantasy tournament strategy.

Includes a breakdown of Underdog's Gauntlet format, the FFPC Playoff Challenge and the NFC Post Season Hold 'Em Contest.

Must listening for anyone playing playoff contests this year.

Jan 06, 2021
DFS Qualifiers, Weekly Contest Selection and Matching Lineups to Contests
2944

With Mike playing in this weekend's Fantasy Football World Championship, Pat asks him about playing qualifiers, strategies for mixing up weekly contest selection, modifying your bankroll and matching lineups to the contest type.

Dec 18, 2020
Best Ball Strategy Review and Rookie Rants
3265

Pat and Mike discuss their thoughts on best ball strategy, including a look back at the hyperfragile draft strategy and methods for making sure your player exposures are what you want them to be.

Mike also rants on reactions to Justin Jefferson's historic season and the episode closes with a discussion of what we can expect going forward from the rookie RB class.

Dec 10, 2020
DEEP DIVE: Diversification Strategy for DFS, Redraft and Dynasty
3281

Mike and Pat talk though diversification strategies in DFS, redraft and dynasty. Including ways to diversify on player selection even when going all in on a macro strategy in a given week / season makes sense. 

They also talk through times it makes sense to spread out your exposure to players and strategies, and tactics to making that easier to execute.

Dec 03, 2020
DEEP DIVE: Handling Uncertainty in Season Long and Daily Fantasy
3565

Pat and Mike discuss how uncertainty factors into redraft and DFS. 

  • Topics include
    • Drafting for breakout players instead of assembling a starting lineup.
    • Betting against the market when it is certain about uncertain situations.
    • Handcuffing vs. multiple late round RBs from the same backfield.
    • Waiver wire strategy.
    • How to handle emerging trends in redraft vs. DFS
    • How to handle dart throws and unprojectable situations in DFS.

Mike also invents a new buzzword, "input volatility" and breaks the news to Pat that Taysom Hill has TE eligibility on FanDuel this week. 

Nov 20, 2020
High Stakes Playoff Strategy and Draft Strategy Retrospective
2965

Mike and Pat discuss tactics for readying FFPC and NFFC high stakes teams for the playoff run--including QB and TE stashes, calibrating FAAB bids, backup kickers and defenses and schedule considerations.

They also look back at draft season to discuss stacking, Zero RB, QB value and more.

Nov 12, 2020
DEEP DIVE: Correlation in DFS Lineups
2468

Pat interviews Mike on all there is to know about correlation in GPP lineup construction. 

Covering stacking, bring backs, RB/DST, RB/RB, TE correlation, mini correlations and adjusting correlation for field size and salary.

This is an evergreen episode that covers broader strategy, not player specific strategy.

Nov 08, 2020
Listener Mailbag: Dynasty Trades
5219

Pat and Mike break down listener submitted dynasty trade questions.

 Includes discussion of D'Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Chris Carson, David Montgomery, Ronald Jones (of course), Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, Devante Parker, Jalen Reagor, TJ Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, and more.

Oct 30, 2020
Polarizing Dynasty Players, Ambiguous RB Situations and Avoiding the Next JJAW
3961

Pat and Mike discuss Juju Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore and other polarizing dynasty players. They also note some red flags on rookies like Brandon Aiyuk and Gabriel Davis. And discuss difficult RB evaluations like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers. 

Finally, Mike adds James Conner to the show sheet in a successful attempt at lowering Pat's asking price in a dynasty league they're in together. 

Oct 22, 2020
CEH and Dak Fallout + Superflex Discussion and a TPPR Tight End Review
4805

Mike and Pat give their thoughts on Le'Veon Bell signing with the Chiefs and on Andy Dalton's value in Dallas. Mike shares a Superflex dynasty trade for Dalton and Pat throws out some hypothetical packages to get back for Dak. 

The episode closes with a discussion of Tight Ends who are standing out in targets per route run so far in 2020. 

(With a chart made by Sam Hoppen (@Sam Hoppen) that Pat will share on twitter for reference).

Oct 16, 2020
Re-Drafting the 2020 Rookie Class w/ Evan Silva
2802

Pat and Mike are joined by Establish The Run co-founder Evan Silva for a 3 man draft of the 2020 rookie class. The draft was originally supposed to be just the 1st round... but this class is too loaded to stop there. 

Oct 09, 2020
Using Predictive Receiving Metrics to Identify Week 4 Buys
3944

Pat and Mike discuss Sam Hoppen's charts for Establish The Run on Air Yard Share, Target Share, Targets per Route Run and Routes per dropback.

Charts:
Target Share & Air Yard Share
WR Routes per Dropback and TPRR
TE Routes per Dropback and TPRR

Then Pat and Mike tease next week's discussion on RBs.


Oct 01, 2020
Dynasty Rankings Updates, Rookie Pick Valuation and Advanced Rookie Pick Strategy
3315

Mike asks Pat about some of the biggest shifts in his dynasty rankings. Including Saquon Barkley, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Robinson, Antonio Gibson and Chase Claypool.

Then Pat and Mike discuss rookie pick strategy including advanced strategies for contending and rebuilding teams.

Sep 25, 2020
Interpreting Week 1 Breakouts and Rest of Season Projections
4201

Pat and Mike discuss Tight Ends who are popping in targets per route run and highlight some options who could have big games in Week 2. They also discuss WRs that look to be breaking out, as well as how to handle some of Week 1's disappointing performances like Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk and DJ Moore.

The episode closes with Mike discussing his approach to rest of season projections and weekly DFS projections. 

Sep 18, 2020
Main Event ADP Shifts from TNF & Tight End Breakout Profiles
3252

Mike and Pat cover the data points we have from FFPC Main Event drafts following the Thursday Night Football game, and discuss where they would now take the stars and scrubs from the game in last minute drafts.

The 2nd half of the show covers Pat's article series on finding elite TE seasons, including discussion on Mike Gesicki, Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Blake Jarwin and Dallas Goedert.


 

Sep 11, 2020
Dynasty Philosophy, Rankings Updates and a Rojo Sidebet
3944

Pat and Mike dive into dynasty strategy and the latest from Pat's rankings on ETR, including the idea of betting on WR prospect evaluation, adjusting tactics for league size and when it's a good idea to lose a trade.

Then Pat gives in and rants about how he's still drafting Ronald Jones, which results in a side bet with Mike.

Finally, Mike discusses his dynasty cut options for the shallow FFPC Superflex format.

Sep 05, 2020
3-Team and 6-Team Best Ball Strategy with Peter Jennings
4220

Mike and Pat recap the latest picks in their $1k Best Ball Entry on DraftKings and barely avoid a potentially brand destroying accidental pick.

Then they are joined by Peter Jennings for a discussion on 3-man and 6-man best ball strategy, including TE and QB value, RB tiers, and tactics for disrupting your opponents. Peter also dispenses some wisdom on taking down large field Best Ball Mania style tournaments. 

Aug 29, 2020
Structural Best Ball Strategies and $1,000 DraftKings Best Ball Entry Recap
2615

Pat and Mike dive in a little deeper on their discussion of the Hyper-fragile RB strategy, and ways to implement it without missing out on premium WR and TE targets.

The episode closes with a discussion of Mike and Pat's $1k Best Ball Entry on DraftKings, including the pick Mike had to make while Pat was asleep. 

Aug 21, 2020
RB Strategies and Backdoor Stacks for Underdog and DraftKings Best Ball Drafts
2635

Pat and Mike discuss the Hyper-fragile RB strategy, and modifications of this approach. They also discuss the Zero-RB and Modified Zero-RB strategies as they relate to Best Ball.

The episode closes with a discussion of stacking, and some backdoor stacks to target when you are sniped on your preferred stacking options.

Strategy Definitions:
Hyper-fragile RB: Drafting 3-4 RBs in 1st 5-6 Rounds but only 3-4 RBs in total
Zero-RB: Zero RBs through the first 4-5 rounds
Modified Zero-RB:  Modified version of Zero-RB where you take 1 elite RB early, and 4+ RB's in rounds 6+


Aug 17, 2020