Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

By Silverado Policy Accelerator

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Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado is a geopolitical program featuring analysis and in-depth expert interviews on topics ranging from great power competition, military conflict, industrial policy, semiconductors, cybersecurity and economic and ecological security. It is hosted by Silverado Policy Accelerator (www.silverado.org), a Washington DC-based non-profit with a mission to promote prosperity and global competitiveness for America and its allies by accelerating bipartisan economic, strategic, and technological policy solutions.

Episode Date
Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization
00:53:35
Twitter Space recording from September 21, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch , Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the implications of Putin's partial mobilization order and the impact it may have on the outcome of the war, as well as Putin's own political futures
Sep 22, 2022
Like Ants to Wet Sugar: How Ukraine Won The Battle of Kharkiv
00:45:27
How did the Russian northern front collapse so rapidly and what can be expected now in the fight for Donbas and Kherson? Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the latest Ukraine counteroffensive developments with Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military.
Sep 11, 2022
Russian northern front collapse: Latest on Ukrainian Counteroffensive
00:42:54
Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south
Sep 11, 2022
Why the global food shortage is a myth
00:38:05

Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports? Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets and the causes behind the recent increase in food prices and what can be done about it.

Topics covered:

  • How likely is the current grain crisis to lead to famine?
  • What is the impact of resumption of Ukraine's grain exports after a deal brokered by Turkey?
  • Why were wheat prices increasing even before the Russian invasion?
  • Ukraine's wheat is a tiny fraction of global production. Why is it having such outsize effects on price?
  • Can substitute crops make up for missing wheat?
  • What will be the impact of fertilizer shortage on food markets?
  • What can governments do to alleviate future food crises?

Episode produced by Patrick Gray (risky.biz)

Aug 31, 2022
Ukraine's cheap drones wreak havoc in Crimea
01:02:07

Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

Topics covered:

  • $10,000 Chinese UAVs are Ukraine's new asymmetric weapon in the war of attrition in Ukraine
  • Russia's plan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
  • Ukrainian planned counteroffensives and the state of Russian progress in the Donbas
  • Why is Moscow changing commanders in this war every few months?
  • Effects of Russian shadow mobilization campaign on current war and long-term force structure
  • Russian artillery ammo stocks
  • Russian attempts to rebuild Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) inventory
Aug 22, 2022
Slicing the Sausage: Ukraine’s Upcoming Counteroffensive
00:53:07

In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive.
Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.

Topics covered:

  • Ukraine's weapons needs for a successful counteroffensive and the challenges they will face
  • Strategic objective of the counteroffensive and how can it help turn the tide of the war
  • Why now is the window of opportunity for a counteroffensive and why it may be narrowing
  • How Ukraine preserved their best troops despite high combat losses
  • The strategic importance of partisan movement in the south and its command and control by Ukrainian special forces
  • The story of how Russians captured Luhansk oblast by shelling their own forces
  • How maneuver defense stopped the Russian offensive in the Donbas
  • How the Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces and the importance of NATO training
  • The lessons the Russians have learned since their earlier failures and their plan in the third phase of the war
  • Why long range missiles are not currently a priority for Ukraine
  • Morale impact of Russian apparent torture and execution of POWs
Aug 03, 2022
How Russia Engineered the Perfect Gas Crisis
00:54:04

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with  energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world.

Topics covered:

  • When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe?
  • What are Europe's options to survive the winter without Russian gas? Which countries will be most affected?
  • What game is Russia playing by cutting Nord Stream 1  flows?
  • Why are Poland, Finland and Bulgaria  cutoff from direct purchases of Russian gas while others like Germany are still buying?
  • How long would it take to build a pipeline from the Russian gas fields in the West to China to remove dependence on European customers?
  • Can Russia continue to operate and maintain old wells and drill new ones without Western servicing firms?
  • What is the impact of Russian gas cutoffs on fertilizer production and global food supplies?
  • How much is it hurting Russia to sell oil at substantial discount to China and India?

Follow the speakers on Twitter @DAlperovitch, @SergeyVakulenk0

Jul 29, 2022
Why Giving Ukraine F-16s Makes Sense
00:39:10

Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s.

Topics covered:

  • Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today
  • How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russian retaliation
  • How Ukraine pilots can be trained within weeks on the basic missions most needed for current phase of the war
  • How to quickly train and assist remotely the ground crews that will maintain the fleet
  • How Ukraine can be helped in repair and replacement of parts for the planes
  • What munitions can be provided for the missions to be undertaken
  • What options exist for helicopter aid
Jul 18, 2022
Ukraine’s HIMARS edge may not last: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (July 10, 2022)
00:38:21

July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces.
Topics covered:

  • HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects?
  • Can ATACMS 300km range missiles break the Russian Black Sea Blockade?
  • Why was Russia so obsessed with trying (unsuccessfully) to hold Snake Island?
  • Is Russia executing a real operational pause before another assault on Donetsk oblast in Donbas?
  • How long will it take for Russia to rebuild its combat losses?
  • Are prisoners with military experience the future of the Russian military?
  • What's happening with the Russian Kharkiv offensive?
  • Has Ukraine launched the Kherson offensive or are we still seeing just preparations for one?
  • How much is the war really costing Russia?
Jul 11, 2022
How Putin is dragging Belarus into the war: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 26, 2022)
01:00:34

June 26, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) and Henry Schlottman (OSINT war analyst, US army veteran) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

  • Is Belarus getting dragged into this war?
  • Who is running Russia's war? Why are commanders being replaced?
  • How best can Ukraine use the new HIMARS artillery systems that are now arriving? What difference are they likely to make on the battlefield?
  • Is Russia in danger of running out of ammunition?
  • Is Russian advance stalling in the Donbas?
  • Can Ukraine target the Crimean Bridge bridge and what are the implications of their strikes on energy and rail infrastructure in Russia and Crimea?
  • Is Russia still having logistics issues in the Donbas offensive?
  • How is Wagner performing in the fight and why did Prigozhin get a Hero of Russia medal?
  • Can Western defense industrial base keep up with Ukrainian ammo and weaponry needs and expenditures?

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael, @HN_Schlottman

Jun 27, 2022
The War of Attrition: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 19, 2022)
00:52:31

June 19, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered:

- Near-term prospects for Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south to take back Kherson

- Will the new Western artillery systems arrive in time to make a difference for the current fight in Donbas

- Why is maintenance the biggest issue for Ukrainian deliveries of new Western weapons

- How fast can the Ukrainian ports be demined to allow for sea export of grain and oilseeds

- Why haven't we heard more about the impact of Switchblade kamikaze drones that everyone was so excited about just weeks ago

- What is the state of exhaustion/force rotations on Russian and Ukrainian sides

- What's happening on Snake Island right now

- Does Russia have the troops to make trouble for Moldova or Ukraine from Transnistria

- Is Russia running out of Infantry Fighting Vehicles and artillery shells

- Is a ceasefire likely in the near future

- What are the lessons learned from this war for the US military

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Jun 20, 2022
The Long War: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (June 5, 2022)
01:03:53

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Recent article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussed on the podcast:  https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

Jun 06, 2022
Inside the West's Economic War Against Russia: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 27, 2022)
00:52:49

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @Maria_Shagina

May 27, 2022
How effective is the Russian military: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 15, 2022)
01:04:21

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch , @KofmanMichael and @MassDara

May 15, 2022
How Moskva Was Sunk: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 8, 2022)
01:04:10

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

May 09, 2022
Ukrainian Military: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (May 1, 2022)
01:02:21

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @nolanwpeterson

May 01, 2022
Fight for Donbas: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (April 24, 2022)
01:01:41

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael 
 

Apr 25, 2022
Nuclear Weapons: Iran, North Korea and Have We Lost the Nonproliferation Fight?
00:57:52

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @ArmsControlWonk

Apr 10, 2022
Science of War: Analysis of the war in Ukraine and implications for Taiwan (April 3, 2022)
01:02:38

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Apr 04, 2022
Endgame in Sight: Analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 27, 2022)
00:57:19

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @C_C_Krebs

Mar 28, 2022
Stalemate: Analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 20, 2022)
00:52:44

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch and @KofmanMichael

Mar 21, 2022
War for Cities: Military analysis of the the war in Ukraine (March 13, 2022)
01:00:44

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Mar 14, 2022
Military analysis of the the war in Ukraine: March 6, 2022
01:38:56

Follow the speakers on Twitter: @DAlperovitch, @KofmanMichael and @RALee85

Mar 11, 2022