The Macro Trading Floor

By Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen | Blockworks

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Description

Every week, one of the best worldwide macro investors joins this unique show to talk about the economy, markets and elaborate the next big actionable macro trade! The show is hosted by two young and institutionally successful European macro stars: Alfonso Peccatiello (former Head of a $20bn Investment Portfolio at ING) and Andreas Steno Larsen (former Chief Strategist at Nordea).

Episode Date
The Good, The Bad & The Safe Haven
2958
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in FX markets. Just how are indicators such as inflation, energy & interest rates effecting currencies around the world? Finally, Andreas and Alfonso highlight the good, bad & safe haven currencies with an actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bank of England announces gilt market operation https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation  Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e  Nord Stream gas leak continues to bubble in the Baltic Sea as EU diplomat suspects sabotage https://news.sky.com/video/nord-stream-gas-leak-continues-to-bubble-in-the-baltic-sea-as-eu-diplomat-suspects-sabotage-12706871 -- (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Bank of England Announces Gilt Market Operation (05:09) Risks In European Bond Markets (09:12) What Does This Mean For Markets? (12:15) Feature Interview With Andreas (13:22) The Bull Case For Risk Assets (19:31) What Options Do Central Banks Have? (24:38) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (29:17) Feature Interview With Alfonso (31:44) Geopolitical Risk In The Baltic Sea (37:01) The Strongest & Weakest Global Currencies (40:56) Alfonso’s Actionable Trade Ideas (43:13) Post Interview Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Oct 02, 2022
Investors Are "Totally Unprepared", And This Is Why | Bob Elliott
3252
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges such as gold perform in inflationary periods? Finally, Bob shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The FOMC Meeting (07:16) An Update On The European Energy Crisis (11:56) Feature Interview With Bob Elliot (13:48) Central Banks Reaction To Inflation (16:05) Powell Doesn't Wan't To Repeat The Mistake of The 1970's (19:22) Asset Allocation During Inflationary Periods (22:16) Gold (25:35) Commodities In This Environment (28:10) The Role of The 60/40 Portfolio (34:32) Bob's Actionable Trade Idea (43:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sep 25, 2022
The Oil Bull Market Is NOT Over | Andrew Simon
3730
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, particularly oil & natural gas, Andrew makes the case for why politicians around the world are actually contributing to the higher prices. Finally, Andrew shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx --  Follow Andrew: https://twitter.com/Asimoan28 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (04:19) Inflation Surprised To The Upside (06:36) Energy's Effect On Inflation (11:06) Feature Interview With Andrew Simon (12:27) What Is Happening In Energy? (19:32) Why Andrew Is Bullish On Oil (28:28) Political Risk of Being Long Energy (30:32 )The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (36:51) Andrew's Actionable Trade Idea (44:09) The Oil Price vs 2008 (48:16) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sep 18, 2022
Don't Bet Against The Swiss National Bank | Vincent Deluard
3296
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vincent shares the bull case for a certain sector of the European economy by outlining his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/truss-earmarks-130-billion-to-keep-uk-energy-bills-below-2-000 Asset Purchase Facility: Gilt Sales – Market Notice 1 September 2022: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/market-notices/2022/september/apf-gilt-sales-market-notice-1-september-2022  Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Europe's Reaction to the Energy Crisis (05:17) European Banks Excess Liquidity (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (09:02) The BoE Secretly Announces Yield Curve Control (11:32) Feature Interview: Vincent Deluard (12:46) The Inflation Regime Shift (15:32) The Labor Market (21:00) Deglobalization Marks A Shift In The Labor Market (31:07) Long Duration in US Markets (35:01) The US Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:09) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea (43:29) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:50) A "Techtonic" Shifts in Global Markets (51:41) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sep 11, 2022
Ben Melkman: Expecting A U.S Dollar Decline
3470
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably  UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Natural Gas In Europe (03:40) Inflation In Europe (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman (11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation (21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole (28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation? (31:09) The U.S Dollar (37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea (47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sep 04, 2022
This Is What The Fed Will Do | David Woo
3389
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, David shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- “This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs and gain access to a wide range of government and corporate bonds. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/davidwoounbound Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Bridgewater Doubles Short Wagers in Europe to $10.5 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/bridgewater-doubles-bet-against-european-stocks-to-10-5-billion  Biden Unveils Plan to Free Students from ‘Unsustainable Debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/biden-set-to-freeze-student-loan-repayments-for-four-more-months  Kansas City Fed's George on rate hikes: 'We have more work to do' https://uk.news.yahoo.com/kansas-city-feds-george-rate-133641402.html -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Is Europe's Energy Crisis As Bad As Reported? (01:00) Top Stories Of The Week (07:43) Biden Unveils Plan to Cancel Student Debt (12:35) Feature Interview With David Woo (17:20) Fed Policy vs Economic Growth (21:55) The Path Ahead For Midterms (26:55) Can The Fed Slay The Inflation Dragon? (29:42) Quantitative Tightening (35:05) David's Actionable Trade Idea (44:26) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Aug 28, 2022
The Disinflationary Trend Is Over | Whitney Baker
3321
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Whitney Baker CEO of Totem Macro to the show. With a background at some of the largest funds in the world, including Bridgewater, Whitney provides an expert view into the secular shift happening in markets today. Arguing that liquidity & globalization were two of the most important trends of the past 20 years, what will a secular reversal in both mean for markets going forward? To find out & hear Whitneys actionable trade idea, you'll just have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 --  DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io --  Follow Whitney: https://twitter.com/TotemMacro Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 26-27, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220817a.htm Recognizing China: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1971-10-01/recognizing-china  The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era: https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html  What China's Taiwan white paper is saying: https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/what-chinas-taiwan-white-paper-is-saying/ --  Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (00:24) FOMC Minutes (06:09) Inflation In Europe & The U.K (10:00) Feature Interview With Whitney Baker (14:38) A Reverse In Liquidity & Globalization (21:39) Equity & Energy Markets (28:12) Whitney's Actionable Trade Idea (41:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (44:50) The End Of Globalization? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Aug 21, 2022
Are You Paying Attention to Emerging Markets? | Nick Stadtmiller
3417
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nick Stadtmiller Director of Emerging Markets Strategy at Medley Advisors. With an expertise in emerging markets, Nick joins the show for a discussion on the macro forces driving EM's. From global inflation rates to the rising U.S Dollar's effect on EM currencies, Nick provides a region by region walkthrough of all the strongest and weakest emerging market's you can't afford to not pay attention too. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 --  DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." --  Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickStadtmiller Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (02:01) Breaking Down The CPI Report (08:46) The Liquidty Cycle (10:15) DAS NY (12:51) Feature Interview with Nick Stadtmiller (14:35) Market Reaction To Lower Inflation (18:05) The U.S Dollar (22:18) What Is Happening In Emerging Markets? (28:40) China (38:00) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (43:25) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Aug 14, 2022
The Fed Will Break Inflation's Back, No Matter What | Teddy Vallee
3217
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Teddy Vallee, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Pervalle Global. After positioning to be short everything in the first half of 2022, Teddy now sees an environment where inflation will begin to roll over. With typical growth indicators slowing down such as commodities, Teddy sees an attractive risk/reward in the bond market.  Teddy then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Referenced In The Show: BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/boe-raises-rates-by-most-since-1995-warns-of-long-recession  Sweeping Mortgage Boycott Changes the Face of Dissent in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-03/china-real-estate-market-crisis-protests-may-spur-multi-billion-dollar-rescue -- Follow Teddy: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Top Stories Of The Week (10:13) DAS (11:33) Feature Interview with Teddy Vallee (16:12) Why Is Inflation Heading Lower? (21:20) Will Powell Pivot? (23:34) Market reaction To Powell's Comments (28:42) The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (31:02) Outlook For The U.S Dollar (34:11) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (36:49) Teddy's Actionable Trade Idea (40:51) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Aug 07, 2022
Shorting The Nasdaq With Butterfly Spreads | Dean Curnutt
3826
Dean is looking at shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) by using a "butterfly" spread. He wants to fade a Fed pivot (he wants to bet against the consensus that the Fed will reverse course and loosen policy) by shorting duration-sensitive equities such as those in the Nasdaq.  --  DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." --  Follow Dean: https://twitter.com/Alpha_Ex_LLC Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (00:18) Understanding The Fed's Meeting (06:27) Top Stories Of The Week (10:28) DAS NYC (12:14) Feature Interview with Dean Curnutt (17:20) Demand Destruction (22:50) Why Is Implied Volatility So Low? (36:14) The Macro Trade: The NASDAQ Butterfly (41:51) What If The Trade Is Wrong? (51:12) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jul 31, 2022
Diego Parrilla: China Is Running Out Of Options
3629
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome best selling author and investment manager at Quadriga Asset Management Diego Parrilla to the show for a discussion on China. Diego makes the point that China's growth over the past 20 years is no longer sustainable as they battle high debt levels, demographic collapse & now social upheaval as citizens boycott mortgage payments. Diego goes on to discuss recent FX moves in USD, CNY & HKD before centering his actionable trade idea around a single currency pair, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Diego: https://twitter.com/ParrillaDiego Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: China's Mortgage Boycotts Are a Problem for Xi: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-07-20/china-s-mortgage-boycotts-are-a-problem-for-xi?sref=1STrqapn -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) The ECB Meeting (08:02) DAS New York Conference (11:32) Feature Interview With Diego Parrilla (13:35) The Chinese Economy (16:33) China's Mortgage Boycotts (22:53) Currency Wars (26:02) Chinese Demographics (31:01) Is The Hong Kong Dollar Peg At Risk? (34:40) Diego's Actionable Trade Idea (49:50) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jul 24, 2022
Marko Papic: Game Over For The Oil Bulls
3129
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Marko Papic Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. With such a massive bull run in energy, particularly Oil since the March 2020 lows, is the bull run sustainable? With a geopolitical premium priced into energy markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are oil and gas markets set to take another leg higher, or retrace 2021 & 2022 gains like the past couple of months? Marko walks through all of the factors at play and also shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Marko: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Nord Stream nightmare: Has Putin stopped Europe's gas for good? https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/  Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling tickets for flights this summer https://www.ft.com/content/9e76ca20-406f-46a8-8cec-d7627ea38f91 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Top Stories Of The Week (11:17) Feature Interview With Marko Papic (16:35) Has Putin Stopped Europe's Gas For Good? (21:47) Can Europe Handle The Energy Shortage? (25:40) Chinese Oil Demand (33:14) What Could Go Wrong With Marko's Trade Idea? (35:11) Biden Heads To Saudi Arabia (37:16) Final Thoughts (40:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jul 17, 2022
A Trade For The U.S Dollar's Reversal | Julian Brigden
3713
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline. Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new regime shift Julian expects effect his actionable trade idea? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: So, Recession?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession#details  Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf  Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/ecb-lagarde-plays-down-recession-risks-at-sintra-forum.html The current bond bull market is the longest in more than 500 years https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-paper-on-bond-bull-markets-through-the-years-2017-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T Bretton Woods III: https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (06:53) Can the Fed pivot? (13:59) Feature Interview With Julian Brigden (23:59) The Labor Market (29:03) Will the Fed turn dovish? (34:44) The U.S. Dollar vs Equities (39:24) Julian's Actionable Trade Idea (46:01) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (51:29) The Role of the US Dollar -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jul 10, 2022
Russell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley, Host of the "Forward Guidance" Podcast as Alfonso is away on holiday. They discuss the top stories of the week including the recent sell-off in commodities, policy errors by the ECB and a recent interview with Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey & Christine Lagarde. Andreas then welcomes Russell Clark, Former hedge fund manager of Russell Clark Investment Management for a discussion on the most important factor in markets right now, inflation. Expecting to see a switch from capital back to labor, structurally higher bond yields, higher inflation and elevated commodity prices, just what will this mean for markets? Russell then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Russell: https://twitter.com/rampagingruss Follow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Central bankers warn of end to low inflation era: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2022/latest-30062022.html  Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7wE5m3TAY61LpZNBUc1x2u?si=b79c323837f1431e  Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning: https://open.spotify.com/episode/36aWSiLz2tt45URVIOULTd?si=83c74291c04e40d9 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (08:09) Falling Commodity Prices (12:14) Feature Interview With Russell Clark (15:32) A Regime Shift in Inflation (25:13) A Regime Shift in Currencies (28:25) The U.S Dollar (34:52) Russell's Actionable Trade Idea (40:57) The BoJ & Yield Curve Control (44:53) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jul 03, 2022
Two Trades To Navigate This Regime Shift
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week before offering up their very own trade idea for manoeuvring this environment. With all eyes on the Bank of Japan as they fiercely defend their yield curve control, many investors are worried about something breaking in Japan. Alfonso highlights that "the only entity that can break something in Japan, is Japan itself". Just how will Kuroda and the BoJ be forced react to a weakening Yen, surging yields and increasing pressure from the bond vigilantes. To find out, you'll just have to tune in! --  Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Jerome Powell Takes a Pounding: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-takes-a-pounding-11655936900  The Bank of Japan will not be bullied: https://www.ft.com/content/cc054493-8339-4c53-a60c-a413b05404f9 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2022/ -- Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (00:33) Top Stories Of The Week (07:33) Bank Of Japan Will Not Be Bullied (12:06) Feature Interview With Andreas (12:38) What The Heck Is Going On With The BoJ? (20:31) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (27:36) Feature Interview With Alfonso (30:48) Heading For An Earnings Recession (37:13) Alfonso's Actionable Trade Idea (42:27) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jun 26, 2022
Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Frances Donald Global Chief Economist & Strategist at Manulife Investment Management. Walking through the most important macro factor right now, inflation, Frances shares how every central bankers worst nightmare is manifesting itself in markets. Sharing her outlook on inflation and the bond market, Frances sees a scenario where the flattening yield curve will lead to another inversion across 2's 10's & 5's 30's. Could a new regime of secular stagflation be upon us? Frances then shares her actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! --  Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/francesdonald Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927 ECB to design new bond-buying plan to tackle market turmoil: https://www.ft.com/content/c519e5d5-f4c3-4554-9484-ddca75cf9bf3?sharetype=gift Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop#details -- Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (00:59) Top Stories Of The Week (07:41) Take Of The Week (14:33) Feature Interview With Frances Donald (16:03) FOMC Meeting (22:38) Inflation (27:21) The Neutral Rate (30:55) The Yield Curve (35:59) Frances' Actionable Trade Idea (39:27) Quantitative Tightening (42:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jun 19, 2022
We Are Headed For A Deep Recession | Jesse Felder
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report. Felder argues that a strong dollar, severe interest rate spikes, and surging commodity prices indicate that a deep earnings recession is on the horizon. Felder explains why he thinks a Fed pivot is likely and fleshes out his macro thesis on stocks, bonds, and precious metals. For details of Jesse’s actionable trade idea, you will have to listen in! -- Follow Jesse: https://twitter.com/jessefelder Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (00:20) Top Stories Of The Week (11:11) Feature Interview with Jesse Felder (16:44) Is Inflation Here To Stay? (19:16) What Will The Fed Ultimately Do? (22:03) Political Pressures on Central Banks (27:21) Jesse's Actionable Trade Idea (39:57) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jun 12, 2022
Nick Givanovic: This is How You Kill Inflation
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On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Nick Givanovic. Nick provides a wealth of knowledge having spent over 40 year in the investment industry. From 1983 - 1993, Nick ran the largest bond book in the world, and has worked at some of the largest firms in the world including JP Morgan and Salomon.  Nick joins the show to focus on the elephant in the room, inflation. Quoting Milton Friedman: "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon", Nick provides a deep dive into why he believes inflation could remain persistent in this environment. He goes on to discuss the bond market mispricing, inflation expectations and how earnings repricing could drag equity markets lower. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickGiva Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record as ECB Mulls How Quickly to Hike: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/euro-area-inflation-hits-record-as-ecb-mulls-how-quickly-to-hike#xj4y7vzkg Fed's Bostic calls for caution as Fed raises rates: 'Even firetrucks with sirens blaring slow down at intersections': https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cant-be-reckless-in-the-way-it-pushes-up-interest-rates-bostic-says-11653410349?mod=article_inline Transcript: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the WSJ Future of Everything Festival: https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chairman-jerome-powell-at-the-wsj-future-of-everything-festival-11652821738 German retail sales drop in April as food prices bite: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-retail-sales-drop-more-than-expected-april-2022-06-01/ -- Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (01:03) Top Stories Of The Week (13:11) Feature Interview With Nick Givanovic (15:03) Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon (25:16) Inflation Expectations (29:38) Earnings Recpricing Will Drag The S&P Lower (36:14) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (45:52) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Jun 05, 2022
Darius Dale: The Most Hated 20% Rally Ahead of Us
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On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. After correctly forecasting a slowdown in economic growth, an end to the reflation trade & pricing in a bear market throughout 2022, Darius joins Alf and Andreas to share his macro thesis for the second half of the year. Is the market beginning to price in an earnings recession? Are investors signalling a rotation into bonds after one of the worst start to the year since 1788? Darius provides a masterclass in the macro fundamentals driving markets before sharing his actionable trade idea but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!  --  Follow Darius: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  In Fed's inflation fight, Bostic wants to avoid 'recklessness': https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-amps-up-inflation-fight-one-policymaker-urges-caution-2022-05-24/ Cathie Wood calls for 30 - 50% GDP growth from A.I https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 3-4, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220504.pdf Apple raises pay as inflation climbs and labour competitiveness grows: https://www.ft.com/content/a9190b53-9f85-4362-ae95-1cf42473fdd3 --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Top Stories of The Week (09:04) Fun Take of The Week (12:26) Feature Interview With Darius Dale (14:40) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:31) Slowing Growth Throughout 2022 (25:47) China Is In Recession (28:36) Effect of Quantitative Tightening On Markets (35:23) Darius's Actionable Trade Idea (44:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
May 29, 2022
Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities
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On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard. Drawing parallels between today and the 1970's, Dario walks us through his macro framework as global economies face inflation, recession & structural demographic issues.  As China experiences continued lockdowns, Europe struggles with it's worst cost of living crisis since the 1940's and the U.S undertakes its rapid tightening of financial conditions, Dario predicts a very ugly outlook over the next 3-6 months. How will this macro environment influence Dario's actionable trade idea, to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Dario: https://twitter.com/darioperkins Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Dario's Blog: https://blogs.tslombard.com/author/dario-perkins Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-to-take-wsj-questions-on-inflation-and-economic-outlook-11652779802 Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-polar-stars?s=r#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction  (00:13) Top Stories Of The Week (11:12) Feature Interview With Dario Perkins (19:01) Central Bank Reaction Function (23:43) Real Interest Rates (26:27) The Effect Of Demographics On Growth (31:49) Dario's Actionable Trade Idea (38:46) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (46:13) Previous Trade Reviews -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
May 22, 2022
This Will Blow Up, And This Will Be Your Safe Haven
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On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by a very special guest to discuss the top stories of the week. After a week in markets few will forget, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the dilemma central banks around the world face as they embark on tightening financial conditions in the face of soaring inflation. After our guest walks us through their macro framework, they share their actionable trade idea. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Top Stories of The Week (13:47) Full Length Feature Interview (14:30) Are The ECB Trapped? (18:43) Inflation In Europe (30:32) Actionable Trade Idea (43:07) Effect of a Rising Dollar (45:45) What Is Behind The Dollar's Rise? (53:10) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
May 15, 2022
Saxo Bank CIO: Gold to $2500 | Steen Jakobsen
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On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen. With 30+ years investing through some of the most volatile periods in market history, Steen compares previous market cycles to today's stating, "November last year was the single biggest event in my life". As the Fed begins its most aggressive market tightening cycle in recent history, Steen expects a paradigm shift in investor preference towards commodities over financial assets. After walking us through his macro framework, Steen shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steen: https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Rocky ride ahead for Norway's $1.2 trillion wealth fund. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-ceo-warns-rocky-ride-ahead-2022-05-03/ Treasury Cuts Quarterly Debt Sale, May Do So Again Even With Fed QT. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/u-s-cuts-quarterly-debt-sale-may-do-so-again-even-with-fed-qt WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) Top Stories of The Week (10:56) Feature Interview With Steen Jakobsen (18:03) Is The Cure For High Prices, High Prices? (20:48) Lack of Energy CapEx (23:25) Energy Demand Destruction (28:25) The Fed's Terminal Rate (31:20) Steen's Actionable Trade Idea (38:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
May 08, 2022
Mike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking Markets
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike shares his outlook for early signs of risks emerging in the economy and how those risks could impact markets throughout 2022. Drawing comparisons between the 2022 tech sell-off and the 2000 dot-com crash, Mike explains how the Fed is going to break markets. After walking us through his macro framework, Mike shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Elon Musk just took out one of the biggest personal margin loans ever for his bid to buy out Twitter. Here's why Wall Street banks lined up to back the risky move. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-margin-loan-twitter-takeover-morgan-stanley-2022-4?r=US&IR=T Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/03/global-supply-chain-pressure-index-march-2022-update/ The Fed will plunge the US into a major recession by hiking rates above 5%, Deutsche Bank predicts. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-recession-warning-federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-deutsche-bank-2022-4 European Leaders Blast the Cutoff of Russian Gas to Poland and Bulgaria as 'Blackmail': https://time.com/6171594/russia-gas-nato-poland-bulgaria/ Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics? http://ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/2/123250431/pandemics_jst_restat_final_feb2021_main.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Top Stories of The Week (10:14) Worst Take of The Week (15:49) Feature Interview with Mike Green (24:33) Fed Balance Sheet Reduction (28:56) The Neutral Rate & Fed Rate Hikes (35:55) Will The Green Transition Be Inflationary? (37:20) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (41:13) Mike's Actionable Trade Idea (49:26) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
May 01, 2022
Lyn Alden: A Pendulum Between Stagflation & Reflation
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On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Walking Alfonso and Andreas through her macro framework, Lyn explains the past two years of unorthodox monetary and fiscal policies. Drawing on the 1940s as an indicator, she correctly predicted the high inflation rates we’re currently seeing far ahead of most. Expecting a pendulum-style shift between reflation and stagflation, Lyn shares her actionable investment idea while giving a clear outlook for today’s macro landscape — you can't afford to miss this episode! -- Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Referenced In The Show: ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/arks-tesla-model/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Worst Take of The Week (06:20) Market Outlook (15:35) Feature Interview With Lyn Alden (18:18) How Fiscal Handouts Caused Inflation (20:40) Weakening Demand Throughout 2022 (22:35) Weak Growth Over The Next Decade (26:45) Will Fed Tightening Spell Danger For Markets (29:40) Lyn's Actionable Trade Idea (41:05) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Apr 24, 2022
Jim Leitner: A Trade for the Commodity Supercycle
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We are proud to present a brand new podcast launching on the Blockworks channel The Macro Trading Floor. Every week one of the best worldwide global macro investors will join Andreas Steno Larsen & Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss the economy, markets & provide an actionable trade idea. To kick off this exciting new series, Andreas & Alfonso are joined by Jim Leitner a market veteran who traded his way up on Wall Street, recording Billions in profits during the process. Now running his family office Falcon Management, Jim walks through some of the greatest opportunities in markets today from commodities to FX trades whilst simultaneously sharing his outlook for inflation & a possible recession on the horizon. -- Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/LeitnerJim Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:25) Worst Take Of The Week (05:45) Market Outlook (12:10) Feature Interview With Jim Leitner (12:52) Inflation & Financial Conditions (19:54) Forecasting A Recession (22:00) Are We In A Secular Commodity Bull Market (30:35) Investing In Brazil (39:26) Jim's Actionable Trade Idea (42:08) Post Interview: Final Thoughts
Apr 17, 2022
Introducing: The Macro Trading Floor
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Introducing The Macro Trading Floor, hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Andreas Steno Larsen, a unique financial markets podcast hosted by two young European macro stars that not only delivers insightful macro content, but also actionable investment ideas to investors across the world.
Apr 08, 2022