Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine
By Konstantin Milevskiy
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Category: Investing
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Episodes: 38
Description
Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.
| Episode | Date |
|---|---|
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The Reflection: A sitting Chairman retires the instrument he helped install, and the archive answers in the voices the institution overruled
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Sep 02, 2026 |
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The Homework: The Chairman withdraws forward guidance to get an unfiltered market signal. His own institution's archive holds the dissent that says he is right — and the record of what happened when the guidance came off.
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Aug 11, 2026 |
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The Supplement: Arthur Burns tells Los Angeles that his instruments cannot reach this inflation, and names the ones that should stand beside them
|
Aug 09, 2026 |
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The Slate: The Inference traced a rate cut timed for December, waiting on a supply-side finding the new task forces were to certify by year-end. On July 9 the Federal Reserve named the people who will certify it. Read against what each has spent a decade concluding, the roster is the finding.
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Jul 10, 2026 |
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The Inference: The first meeting under the new chair installed the framework the series predicted — and set the schedule that delivers the cut.
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Jun 18, 2026 |
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The Game: The program has been announced. The implementation has begun. The chair does not need to win a majority for a standalone cut on the merits of incoming inflation data, because he has changed what the committee will be voting on.
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May 22, 2026 |
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The Analogue: Why the doctrine that has held since 2008 was built for the cases where oil rose and fell.
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May 02, 2026 |
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The Dollar: The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment.
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Apr 26, 2026 |
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The Test: The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five. The fifth is the one the doctrine does not name.
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Apr 25, 2026 |
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The Coordination: The axis authorizes four instruments. The balance sheet requires a fifth. The seat that holds the fifth is not in the axis.
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Apr 24, 2026 |
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The Axis: Three actors, one architecture, and the coordination register that debuted within twenty-four hours of the hearing
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Apr 23, 2026 |
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The Pillars: A restorationist program, its architecture, and the two readings of how it arrived
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Apr 21, 2026 |
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The Offset: What the Fed's own transcripts reveal about the fiscal burden Judy Shelton describes
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Apr 20, 2026 |
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The Distinction: What the Fed knew about the line between supply shock and inflation regime
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Apr 15, 2026 |
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The Money: Where Money Comes From, and What Happens When the Federal Reserve Forgets
|
Apr 12, 2026 |
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The Compound: What the Fed already knew about the remedies its most celebrated investor prescribes
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Apr 08, 2026 |
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The Privilege: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the risks Warren Buffett identifies — and the cure he prescribes
|
Apr 08, 2026 |
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The Precedent: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the history a dissenting governor invokes
|
Apr 01, 2026 |
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The Guide: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the balance sheet reduction its Governor proposes
|
Mar 26, 2026 |
|
The Unanimity: Five decades of unanimous votes. Five mechanisms of collective failure. The architecture of agreement at the Federal Reserve.
|
Mar 25, 2026 |
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The Retreat: The March 2026 FOMC statement made four changes from January. Markets barely noticed. We decoded each change against 90 years of documents.
|
Mar 18, 2026 |
|
The Insulation: What seven decades of closed-door deliberations reveal about Federal Reserve independence
|
Mar 14, 2026 |
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The Circuit: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the path from energy shock to bond market
|
Mar 07, 2026 |
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The Reserve: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the framework the Treasury Secretary calls a mistake
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Mar 05, 2026 |
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The Underlying: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the inflation doctrine a Governor invokes to justify dissent
|
Mar 04, 2026 |
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The Window: Testing Vice Chair Bowman’s proposed liquidity reforms against the Federal Reserve’s own internal deliberations, 1970–2024
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Mar 03, 2026 |
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The Aggregate: Twenty Percent of the Economy Drives One Hundred Percent of Recessions. The Federal Reserve Tracks Those Sectors — and the Credit Conditions That Drive Them.
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Feb 22, 2026 |
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The Paradox: Simpson's Paradox in the labor market reveals a fifty-three-year pattern inside the Federal Reserve — where the choice of inflation average has never been neutral.
|
Feb 17, 2026 |
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The Reweight: The Federal Reserve's Own Archive Tests the Case for Loosening Mortgage Capital Requirements
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Feb 16, 2026 |
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The Position: Governor Steven Miran's January dissent, the documentary record of every argument he made, and the institutional memory of what happened last time.
|
Feb 13, 2026 |
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The Assay: Judy Shelton's Monetary Vision Tested Against the Federal Reserve's Own Documentary Record
|
Feb 08, 2026 |
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The Nominee: The man who might run the Federal Reserve says the institution needs 'regime change.' We went into the archives to see if he's right.
|
Jan 30, 2026 |
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The Translation: The January 2026 FOMC statement is 234 words. Markets consumed it in seconds. We decoded it against 90 years of documents.
|
Jan 30, 2026 |
|
The Measure: That Wasn't — How the Federal Reserve's Inflation Gauge Became an Instrument of Accommodation
|
Jan 25, 2026 |
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The Precondition: What the Fed's Real Mandate Looks Like
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Jan 19, 2026 |
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The Dissenter: What Kevin Warsh Said Inside the Fed
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Jan 17, 2026 |
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The Transmission: When the Fed Chose Wall Street
|
Jan 16, 2026 |
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The Confession: When a Fed Governor Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
|
Jan 14, 2026 |